Stock版 - the dollar trade is over for now |
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c***y
发帖数: 286 | 1 imho ... I totally agree with the following article. I think it's time to
short gold/silver/bond/... and long stocks. | v******g
发帖数: 1651 | 2 agree, where this article come from?
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【在 c***y 的大作中提到】
: imho ... I totally agree with the following article. I think it's time to
: short gold/silver/bond/... and long stocks.
| v******g
发帖数: 1651 | 3 agree, where this article come from?
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【在 c***y 的大作中提到】
: imho ... I totally agree with the following article. I think it's time to
: short gold/silver/bond/... and long stocks.
| c***y
发帖数: 286 | 4 seekingalpha.com
I've long been waiting for a point to short gold. I think it has topped.
【在 v******g 的大作中提到】
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| c***y
发帖数: 286 | 5 Economists and others weigh in on the agreement between the White House and
congressional Republicans on a broad tax package.
By Phil Izzo (wsj)
–The proposed temporary tax cuts and spending increases will provide a
substantial boost to growth in 2011. Instead of another year expanding at no
more than the U.S. economy’s potential growth rate — with job gains of 1.
2 million and unemployment hovering near 10% — real GDP growth will
accelerate to 4%, job gains will pick up to 2.8 million, and the
unemployment rate will decline to around 8.5% by year’s end. In all
likelihood, the recovery would have made it through next year without
backtracking into recession, but this deal improves those odds significantly
. It also reduces the pressure on the Federal Reserve to engage in more
aggressive monetary easing, a possibility even the central bank’s most
ardent supporters aren’t happy about. –Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics
–The [tax proposal] would represent a significantly more positive fiscal
outcome for 2011 than we and most others have been expecting, including a
one year reduction in the payroll tax. In all, this proposal would add $185
billion in stimulus in 2011 beyond what we have been assuming, not including
the corporate tax provisions. –Goldman Sachs
–The package should provide a noticeable boost to GDP in 2011. Some of the
tax cuts will be saved and some of the purchasing power will be taxed away
through higher energy prices. In addition, the obvious omissions from the
proposal are any austerity measures which would begin to address the
surmounting fiscal challenges ahead. We do anticipate that some of the tax
cut will be rolled back through fiscal tightening measures in 2012. –
Bricklin Dwyer, BNP Paribas
–I’d discount the [expensing of business investment]: we’re awash in
excess capacity, and likely to stay that way for years, so I don’t expect
business investment to be noticeably affected by tax breaks that give an
incentive to move spending up in time. The rest is about $220 billion, or
about 0.75% of GDP over the two-year period. What’s the multiplier on that?
Pretty high on UI, which will get spent; less on the rest. Overall,
probably less than 1. So let’s say that this raises GDP by 0.7% relative to
otherwise; rule of thumb is that one point on GDP is half a point on
unemployment, so add 0.35 points to the CBO numbers. –Paul Krugman,
Princeton University
–I am generally pleased with the compromise over taxes the President and
Republicans struck yesterday… As the policy was described yesterday, this
payroll tax cut goes entirely to the worker. This increases work incentives,
but the main motivation is probably to increase take-home pay and consumer
spending… An alternative would have been to reduce the employer’s share of
the payroll tax, at least to some degree. Given a sticky wage, this policy
would have reduced the cost of hiring and, to the extent labor demand curves
slope downward, increased employment. It would also have increased business
cash-flow and, to the extent that firms are cash-constrained, increased
business investment. I should note that, as part of the deal, the President
also got his proposal to allow businesses to expense investment spending. As
I have said previously, this is a good idea, but the impact is likely to be
modest. –Greg Mankiw, Harvard University
–[The payroll tax cut] continues the administration’s obsession with short
-term stimulus rather than long-term growth. Temporary tax cuts can make
sense from the stimulus perspective, since they shift activity from the
future to the present. But this short-term approach generates uncertainty
and might reduce employment two years from now, when the tax rate goes back
up… All that having been said, a short-term reduction in the payroll tax is
not a terrible price to pay for extending (all) the Bush tax cuts. –
Jeffrey Miron, Harvard University
–On net, the package probably adds around $200 billion in new stimulus for
the economy, maybe a bit more. Notice, however, that it is entirely tax cuts
. The estate tax and the extension of high end tax cuts are causing the most
heated reactions, and the payroll tax cut is generally being applauded. But
I see the payroll tax reduction as potentially troublesome as well. Though
the revenue the Social Security system loses due to the tax cut will be
backfilled from general revenues, the worry is that the tax cut will not
expire as scheduled — temporary tax cuts have a way of turning permanent.
That’s especially true in this case since labor markets are very unlikely
to recover within the next year and it will be easy to argue against the
scheduled “tax increase” for workers. –Mark Thoma, University of Oregon
–Most of the money in this package is maintaining tax cuts in place that
were scheduled to expire. This will prevent tax increases from having a
contractionary impact on the economy, however there is very little, if any,
net stimulus in this package compared with current levels of taxation and
spending. –Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research
–Remember that the package represents a defensive measure to avoid
recession, not a pro-growth policy that is going to catapult US growth back
to trend speed growth. In particular, we view the temporary, 2 percentage
point tax cut on payroll taxes with suspicion. First, the full 2 percentage
points will not accrue to tax payers, as the income will still be taxable.
Second, the tax cut is only for one year, and so is unlikely to have a
significant impact on consumer behavior (ie spending), especially when
consumers are worried about falling house prices, stagnant 401(k)’s and
keeping their jobs. Finally, the tax package does not address the federal
funding cuts to states, which are having to cut budgets, including transfer
payments to municipalities, which are then having to cut budgets, including
laying off employees. –TJ Marta, Marta on the Markets
–It’s the typical pattern we’ve seen for the past several years. “
Bipartisan compromise” means both sides get what they want, because deficit
financing of these policies seems like the painless way to get out of
gridlock. Rather than mutual sacrifice, it is mutual grabbing. We can never
manage to “trade off” — we only “pile on.” –Diane Lim Rogers, The
Concord Coalition
–[The tax deal] should help to reduce uncertainty within the financial
markets. The result of this deal, once passed, will support greater income
and spending on the part of consumers and provide investors with a much
clearer picture of short-term fiscal policy. The continued reduced tax rate
on both firms and consumers should provide a stronger incentive to hire
through increased demand… These fiscal policy changes are not without some
costs. The direct effect of the unemployment benefits extension will likely
contribute to continued elevated unemployment; however, the negative effect
of this provision should be offset by the strong incentives to hire
resulting from the continuation of the tax cuts. Another unintended
consequence that may develop is that state governments, facing another tough
year of budget deficits, may use this federal fiscal policy decision as
leverage to increase their own state-level taxes to help address budget
shortfalls. –John Silvia, Wells Fargo
–Most of this round of stimulus does look to be relatively low bang-for-
buck, and it is not paid for over ten years, but it does look to me as
though it is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. –J. Bradford
DeLong, University of California at Berkeley | c***y
发帖数: 286 | 6 no one read this ... sadly ... | a*o
发帖数: 19981 | 7 If gold crash, stock will crash harder.
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【在 c***y 的大作中提到】
: imho ... I totally agree with the following article. I think it's time to
: short gold/silver/bond/... and long stocks.
| c***y
发帖数: 286 | 8 stock is going to create new high, gold is going to the hell.
【在 a*o 的大作中提到】
: If gold crash, stock will crash harder.
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| c***y
发帖数: 286 | |
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