a********h
发帖数: 819 | 1 我发现很难判断silver的短期走势
动不动就垂直拉直线
向下拉是short raid
象今晚向上拉又是谁负责? |
B*S
发帖数: 1328 | |
N******r
发帖数: 642 | 3 silver doesn't look good in the short term. |
P******5
发帖数: 4868 | 4 too hard to play silver now. i will just wait. |
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 5
CRIMEX trading hour is from 8:20 to 13:30 EST. Straight up and down move
in that period is most likely by PET.
PET is naked-shorting 250M Oz silver. To cover the short they engineer a
radi first to scare people into selling and then buy the long contracts
back to cover their shorts. It's done HFT so the move is very steep.
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】
: 我发现很难判断silver的短期走势
: 动不动就垂直拉直线
: 向下拉是short raid
: 象今晚向上拉又是谁负责?
|
a********h
发帖数: 819 | 6 I agree. traders dominate right now.
except that I am still fully loaded, it helps that my profit margin of my
positions were 150% at the begining of the year.
It still hurts with the fall but that's part of the game.
I am really not good at timing gold/silver market, and I won't try to do
that now.
【在 P******5 的大作中提到】
: too hard to play silver now. i will just wait.
|
a********h
发帖数: 819 | 7 thanks neverlearn.
why would PET naked-shorting so much silver? to drive people to treasury
bills?
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: CRIMEX trading hour is from 8:20 to 13:30 EST. Straight up and down move
: in that period is most likely by PET.
: PET is naked-shorting 250M Oz silver. To cover the short they engineer a
: radi first to scare people into selling and then buy the long contracts
: back to cover their shorts. It's done HFT so the move is very steep.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 8
Gold / silver manipulation = currency manipulation.
Gold and silver are money and compete against Dollar. People always shun
weaker currencies for stronger ones so if PET doesn't suppress gold price
then people will abandon the FIAT junk real fast.
But it's futile, they cannot win this game. That's why we stay with the
long term bullish trend in gold knowing we will win the war at the end
so we don't care a few setbacks along the way like the current sell-off.
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】
: thanks neverlearn.
: why would PET naked-shorting so much silver? to drive people to treasury
: bills?
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 9 New silver conspiracy theory: Has China got JPM/Treasury by the balls?
Imagine you are China.
At some point, probably shortly after the year 2000, a large US bank
comes to you via the US Treasury discreetly and asks to borrow 300 million
ounces of silver. The deal is that the Treasury/Fed will provide you with US
Treasury bills as collateral. The US sweetens the deal by granting the
unrelated negotiating point of most favored nation trading status, and
explicitly but verbally guarantees the deal with its full faith and credit.
The Bank, with explicit US backing, promises to return your silver on demand
after four years.
Some six years later you come back and ask the Bank for your 300
million ounces of silver. They say that the silver is gone, having been sold
into the physical bullion market.
So you ask, well, what did you do with it?
And the Treasury answers, we lent it to the bullion banks and JPM, who
sold it in the markets as a part of our plan to keep the prices of gold and
silver from rising, in order to sound a warning about our monetization of
the reserve currency using Treasuries.
So you approach the US Treasury and complain, asking them to honor the
agreement. The Administration says, “we are sorry, but we no longer have
the silver and we do not have any in our reserves. So you can keep our paper
IOUs we offered as collateral instead.”
You are very angry as you do not wish to own more paper, but instead the
bullion which is a legacy asset. You, as China, consider the situation,
and start selling silver short on the Comex, using HSBC and JPM as your
agents. They sell the entire 300 million ounces of silver short. On the side
and through other sources, you are using other agents to buy this same
silver in the form of physical bullion for your own reserves. You consider
this an equitable return of your bullion at a relatively neutral price
compared to that at which you lent it.
When JPM and HSBC need the silver to cover the pledges on the short sale
as more people demand delivery and existing supplies become tighter, you as
China offer the pledge of the US for your 300 million ounces of silver as
collateral and says “collect it from your colleagues at the US government.”
Technically the short sale is ‘hedged’ because the US offers little
counter-party risk, and it is their IOU that is the basis of the short sale.
The problem is that the collateral is in dispute between two sovereign
nations.
But in point of fact the US does not have and cannot obtain this
quantity of silver without severely disrupting the silver market, or
demanding the output of its own silver mines which is unconstitutional. They
do have the power to force a ‘cash settlement’ for the short positions,
but this would be viewed as precipitating a major default on the Comex and
with the Fed’s “house bank” JPM. Not exactly a trust builder in already
shaky markets tainted by scandals of fraudulently valued paper.
And so the market remains at an impasse with a tremendous undeliverable
short in silver with the US and JPM in a very embarrassing position of being
entrapped in what China considers their own scheme by one of the few
entities capable of standing up to them – their major creditor China. |
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 10 A much simplified version on the game China could be playing:
Say I am China. My friend is JPM/Treasury. Let’s call him Jamie.
His wife Joan is the American public.
Jamie calls and borrows $1000 dollars from me. He promises to pay it
back in four years and gives me an IOU.
Four years later I call Jamie back and ask for the return of my loan.
Jamies says sorry he doesn’t have it. Too bad. So sad.
I then in turn borrow $1000 from his wife Joan. When she asks for return
of her money I hand her Jamie’s $1000 IOU and tell her to get her money
back from her husband Jamie.
I now have my money back, and perhaps a little personal satisfaction to
boot, depending on how Jamie had spent my $1000 in the first place, and what
if anything he had told his wife about it. |
|
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 11 I am wondering how does China import physical gold and silver
Can they buy large amount from Comex directly and ask for delivery ?
return
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: A much simplified version on the game China could be playing:
: Say I am China. My friend is JPM/Treasury. Let’s call him Jamie.
: His wife Joan is the American public.
: Jamie calls and borrows $1000 dollars from me. He promises to pay it
: back in four years and gives me an IOU.
: Four years later I call Jamie back and ask for the return of my loan.
: Jamies says sorry he doesn’t have it. Too bad. So sad.
: I then in turn borrow $1000 from his wife Joan. When she asks for return
: of her money I hand her Jamie’s $1000 IOU and tell her to get her money
: back from her husband Jamie.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 12
There are two metal markets: LME and CRIMEX. LME is a physical market.
CRIMEX is mostly for paper rigging.
The conspiracy theory basically says China plays the paper game @CRIMEX
to short it down and then loads the physical silver at LME. When it's
time to honor the CRIMEX shorts, China offers IOUs from JPMorgue as
payment and tell the buyers to get silver from JPM.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I am wondering how does China import physical gold and silver
: Can they buy large amount from Comex directly and ask for delivery ?
:
: return
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 13 who can be China's agent at CRIMEX?
Maybe JP Morgan itself?
guess this might be part of the deal between Hu and Obama
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: There are two metal markets: LME and CRIMEX. LME is a physical market.
: CRIMEX is mostly for paper rigging.
: The conspiracy theory basically says China plays the paper game @CRIMEX
: to short it down and then loads the physical silver at LME. When it's
: time to honor the CRIMEX shorts, China offers IOUs from JPMorgue as
: payment and tell the buyers to get silver from JPM.
|
O****8
发帖数: 514 | 14 what's PET?
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: There are two metal markets: LME and CRIMEX. LME is a physical market.
: CRIMEX is mostly for paper rigging.
: The conspiracy theory basically says China plays the paper game @CRIMEX
: to short it down and then loads the physical silver at LME. When it's
: time to honor the CRIMEX shorts, China offers IOUs from JPMorgue as
: payment and tell the buyers to get silver from JPM.
|
k*******n
发帖数: 8891 | |
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | |
O****8
发帖数: 514 | 17 我看用不着。。。
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: i like physical gold.
|
Y****r
发帖数: 3473 | 18 there is an article from seeking alpha (I lost the link) predicted that
silver will go down short term because 1) too much gain from last year some
profit taking 2) dollar temporary getting stronger because european troubles
so far the prediction is right on
the same author also predicted that silver will turn around and have an up
year this year |
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 19 dollar was not getting stronger
some
troubles
【在 Y****r 的大作中提到】
: there is an article from seeking alpha (I lost the link) predicted that
: silver will go down short term because 1) too much gain from last year some
: profit taking 2) dollar temporary getting stronger because european troubles
: so far the prediction is right on
: the same author also predicted that silver will turn around and have an up
: year this year
|
a*******8
发帖数: 2299 | |
a*******8
发帖数: 2299 | 21 贴个文章
Press Release Source: The Bedford Report On Friday January 28, 2011, 8:46 am
EST
NEW YORK, NY--(Marketwire - 01/28/11) - After touching 30 year highs to kick
off the New Year, silver prices have slumped in recent weeks. Most of the
selloff appears to stem from the idea that greater global economic stability
will make the precious metals market less attractive as an investment.
Silver, however, is as much an industrial metal as it is a precious metal,
leading many in the analyst community to argue that an improving economy
will lead to greater industrial demand for silver. The Bedford Report
examines the outlook for the Silver Market and provides research reports on
Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE:HL - News) and Silver Wheaton Corporation (NYSE:SLW -
News). Access to the full company reports can be found at:
www.bedfordreport.com/2011-01-HL
www.bedfordreport.com/2011-01-SLW
According to The Silver Institute, at least half of the demand for silver is
industrial with silver being applied to batteries, brazing and soldering,
bearings and electronics. New technologies in solar energy, water
purification and medical instruments are expected to keep industrial demand
for the metal surging going forward.
Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole, argues that "Demand for silver is
probably driven more by Asia than anywhere else in the world." China's
silver demand has more than doubled in the last decade due in part to the
nations surging electronics industry. China was a net exporter of silver for
many years but by 2007 the country had become a net importer of the metal.
The Bedford Report releases regular updates on The Silver Market so
investors can stay ahead of the crowd and make the best investment decisions
to maximize their returns. Take a few minutes to register with us free at
www.bedfordreport.com and get exclusive access to our numerous analyst
reports and industry newsletters.
The bulls who believe that silver prices will continue to surge may be
inclined to look into silver miners. Investors in silver miners are banking
on rising earnings, as silver prices rise, to provide value. Some miners
sound confident that silver's run will continue and have started new mining
ventures. However the sale of several silver sites may suggest that the
industry peaked last year.
Silver Wheaton is a silver streamer which means it pays to finance a mine
and subsequently gets the right to buy metals produced from that mine. Year-
on-year earnings at Silver Wheaton have surged an impressive 82 percent.
The Bedford Report provides Analyst Research focused on equities that offer
growth opportunities, value, and strong potential return. We strive to
provide the most up-to-date market activities. We constantly create research
reports and newsletters for our members. The Bedford Report has not been
compensated by any of the above-mentioned publicly traded companies. The
Bedford Report is compensated by other third party organizations for
advertising services. We act as an independent research portal and are aware
that all investment entails inherent risks. Please view the full disclaimer
at http://www.bedfordreport.com/disclaimer |
