a********h
发帖数: 819 | 1 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af6a0ca8-386c-11e0-959c-00144feabdc0.
sounds like a real threat to short-term silver price?
This is like another short selling on top of those by JPM and HSBC. |
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 2
Quote from Ed Steer's daily email:
Silver analyst Ted Butler and I had a very long conversation on the phone
yesterday about this Financial Times story that reported on the 100 million
ounces sold forward by the silver mining companies...and Ted agrees that
Alasdair may have a point.
The FT story is misleading in some respects, because it insinuates that all
of these forward sales had just occurred during the first six weeks of 2011,
when silver prices were at their peak...then heading lower. That was not
the case at all, as most of these hedges were placed many months prior to
the end of 2010.
Of that 100 million ounces, the standout was the 70 million ounces sold
forward by Mexican silver company Minera Frisco...in which Mexican
billionaire Carlos Slim has a huge position. These hedges were placed at $18
.82 the ounce...and the last time we were that low in price, was back in the
third week of August 2010...so that's probably when it happened.
Not only did they sell forward a huge chunk of silver...but they also did it
for gold, lead, zinc and copper. Silver and gold hedges run for three years
...and the base metals for two.
This is what Ted had to say about it in a note [headlined "Hedging Insanity"
] to his subscribers yesterday..."I don't think I have ever seen such a
dangerous hedge book [and I've seen plenty]. By my calculations, the company
is already in the hole for upwards of $600 million on all its metal hedges.
..with silver accounting for $300 million of that total. Its additional
exposure will be many times that amount if prices move higher, as they are
expected to do."
This sound exactly like what happened to Apex Silver many years back...and
they ended up filing for bankruptcy. It's also similar to what happened to
Ashanti Gold...and AngloGold had to come along and take it over because
their hedge book had become toxic. And let's not forget a Canadian gold
company called Cambior. As Ted went on to say..."The hedging experience [
also] cost Barrick Gold $10 billion in total."
Based on what happened to all four of these companies, I doubt that Minera
Frisco will survive long enough to pay out its hedge book...and I also doubt
that the owner [billionaire or not] will have deep enough pockets to cover
his company's ever-increasing losses.
Well, dear reader, I wonder what bullion banks were the ones that did the
deals on all these forward sales? Without doubt, virtually every ounce was
hedged in the OTC market...so all this happened without causing a ripple in
the silver price. I would bet a fair amount of coin that Alasdair is right
on the money. This reeks of JPMorgan. As Ted Butler pointed out, the Minera
Frisco deal alone is equivalent to 14,000 Comex contracts that JPMorgan
might possibly have been able to cover in the OTC market. Stay tuned!
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】
: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af6a0ca8-386c-11e0-959c-00144feabdc0.
: sounds like a real threat to short-term silver price?
: This is like another short selling on top of those by JPM and HSBC.
|
c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 3 Can't you make it a short statement?
I think wall street think OB budget plan is nothing new. US will prefer
higher inflation gradually. This is the reason why commodity keep green
especially silver.
PSLV is my second biggest bet after china ETF. I am still holding it.
million
all
2011,
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Quote from Ed Steer's daily email:
: Silver analyst Ted Butler and I had a very long conversation on the phone
: yesterday about this Financial Times story that reported on the 100 million
: ounces sold forward by the silver mining companies...and Ted agrees that
: Alasdair may have a point.
: The FT story is misleading in some respects, because it insinuates that all
: of these forward sales had just occurred during the first six weeks of 2011,
: when silver prices were at their peak...then heading lower. That was not
: the case at all, as most of these hedges were placed many months prior to
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 4
China ETF may drop in the coming months as folks in Beijing are losing
control of inflation so they may have to raise rate harder to fight it.
【在 c***m 的大作中提到】
: Can't you make it a short statement?
: I think wall street think OB budget plan is nothing new. US will prefer
: higher inflation gradually. This is the reason why commodity keep green
: especially silver.
: PSLV is my second biggest bet after china ETF. I am still holding it.
:
: million
: all
: 2011,
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 5 Meanwhile rumor about another silver margin hike is on the way as PET
wants to find out how many contracts will stand for delivery come March
1st. Currently there are 60K+ contracts opening. If just 15% remains at
the end of February it'd give PET a big headache.
Then again a rumor is only a rumor. |
c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 6 I agree. RE sector is dropping. I sold 82% of TAO last two months. what
about oil in china? Do you watch SNP or ptr? I am holding PGJ whose major
holding is SNP,PTR and BIDU.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: Meanwhile rumor about another silver margin hike is on the way as PET
: wants to find out how many contracts will stand for delivery come March
: 1st. Currently there are 60K+ contracts opening. If just 15% remains at
: the end of February it'd give PET a big headache.
: Then again a rumor is only a rumor.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 7
Energy is always solid play in the long run. I have small positions in
CEO and added some PBR since Sept. Not familiar with BIDU, tho. I'm more
focused on the fundamental sectors such as commodity, mining & energy.
【在 c***m 的大作中提到】
: I agree. RE sector is dropping. I sold 82% of TAO last two months. what
: about oil in china? Do you watch SNP or ptr? I am holding PGJ whose major
: holding is SNP,PTR and BIDU.
|
a********h
发帖数: 819 | 8 great information, thanks a lot, neverlearn!
this eliminates my concern coming from the FT article which is quite
misleading and lack of core information to say the least.
million
all
2011,
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Energy is always solid play in the long run. I have small positions in
: CEO and added some PBR since Sept. Not familiar with BIDU, tho. I'm more
: focused on the fundamental sectors such as commodity, mining & energy.
|
b*******e
发帖数: 24532 | 9 CEO is not as solid as VLO/NE, I would like to recomend those two for you if
you focus on energy.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Energy is always solid play in the long run. I have small positions in
: CEO and added some PBR since Sept. Not familiar with BIDU, tho. I'm more
: focused on the fundamental sectors such as commodity, mining & energy.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 10
Thanx, will do some research on VLO/NE. My CEO was added way back in 09
as a China play. I'm behind on energy FA now. All gold & silver lately.
【在 b*******e 的大作中提到】
: CEO is not as solid as VLO/NE, I would like to recomend those two for you if
: you focus on energy.
|
