|
|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
k*******n
发帖数: 8891 | | w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 2 painful time?
【在 k*******n 的大作中提到】
: 看大戏了，哈哈哈 z Z
| a****b
发帖数: 3588 | 3 哈哈
【在 k*******n 的大作中提到】
: 看大戏了，哈哈哈 z Z
| U********n
发帖数: 1010 | 4 Options Expiration 会对股票 造成很大的影响吗？
3月１１号到期的是不是今天就要执行啊？ 还是下周啊？
【在 k*******n 的大作中提到】
: 看大戏了，哈哈哈 z Z
| U********n
发帖数: 1010 | 5 Investing around OE a look at GOOG history
Options expiration is a just another day that occurs 12 times per year. Many
people who would be called conspiracy theorists watch what is called Max
pain (tm) or maximum pain. This is a point where the most option contracts
are out of the money. If the market makers at OCC etal. where able to make
the stock finish at this point, the most contracts would expire worthless.
The more otm contracts, the less the market makers would have to absorb. I
just did a little study on ten stocks and for the most part maximum pain did
not hold up. Maximum pain also changed with time......It was a moving
target.
Ok, we now know that options expiration has nothing to do with the stock
right?
It actually has quite a bit of an effect on a particular stock. The maximum
pain point for the most part either points to a center point (we will refer
to it as center point from here on out in this post) of the stock or a
center point of the option players expectations. On OE the market makers
have to absorb the in the money contracts. This is where the effect on a
particular stock becomes evident. Following is a study of GOOG for the year
of 2006. You should find the results quite revealing.
January 2006:
Center point day before OE: $420.00
4 day trend prior to OE: Down $18.15
OE day: Opened $438.70 and ended $399.46
1st business day following OE: Up $28.04 from OE close
End of the week following OE: Up 34.81 from OE close
February 2006:
Center point day before OE: $370.00
4 day trend prior to OE: Up $19.82
OE day: Open $369.86 close $368.75
1st business day following OE: Down $2.16 from OE close
End of the week following OE: Down $8.65 from OE close
March 2006:
Center point day before OE: $350.00
4 day trend prior to OE: Up $2.16
OE day: Opened $338.80 Closed $339.79
1st business day following OE: Up $8.40 from OE close
End of the week following OE: Up $2.10 from OE close
April 2006:
Center point day before OE: $390
4 day trend prior to OE: Up $11.55
OE day: Open $448.90 close $437.10
1st business day following OE: Up $3.40 from OE close
End of the week following OE: Down $17.07 from OE close
May 2006:
Center point day before OE: $380.00
4 day trend prior to OE: Down $4.94
OE day: Open $373.28 close $370.02
1st business day following OE: Up $.93 from OE close
End of the week following OE: Up $12.97
June 2006:
Center point day before OE: $380.00
4 day trend prior to OE: Up $2.66
OE day: Open $389.10 close $390.70
1st business day following OE: Down $2.56 from OE close
End of the week following OE: Up $9.25 from OE close
July 2006:
Center point day before OE: $400.00
4 day trend prior to OE: Down $17.15
OE day: Open $386.14 close $390.11
1st business day following OE: Up $.79 from OE close
End of the week following OE: Down $7.71 from OE close
August 2006:
Center point day before OE: $380.00
4 day trend prior to OE: Up $14.30
OE day: Open $386.31 close $383.36
1st business day following OE: Down $6.06 from OE close
End of the week following OE: Down $9.63 from OE close
September 2006:
Center point day before OE: $390.00
4 day trend prior to OE: Up $25.72
OE day: Open $407.48 close $409.88
1st business day following OE: ?
End of the week following OE: ?
A couple of things that can be observed. Let's look at GOOG prior to OE.
GOOG had a nice little higher than recent volume climb just prior to OE.
This upward movement was flattened on Thursday and Friday (OE). When the
market makers absorb the contracts they have to hedge these with either a
long or a short position depending on whether they are absorbing a call or a
put. This is done so they don't take a loss. A likely scenario would be the
market makers are selling into GOOG's rally by shorting to hedge calls.
Another interesting affect of OE is that when GOOG was under the center
point generally there was upward pressure on the stock one to 4 days after
OE. When GOOG was over the center point, generally there was a downward
pressure on the stock one to 4 days after OE. The Monday after OE will have
many positions that need to be unwound. Calls and puts that were exercised
will cause stock to be bought and sold. The market makers also will have to
do opposite trades to close their hedges.
This becomes an important analysis tool......However, I want to caution
everyone out there that it is foolish to use any single tool like our center
point. A large upward or downward trend may sweep through OE without a
flinch. Always use more than one analysis method and take off the blinders.
I would suggest that most investors not trade OE unless they are very
experienced and fully understand the stock that they are trading. I will
post the results of the 10 stocks we followed next week and everyone can see
where they ended and if there is any effect from OE. | z****u
发帖数: 305 | | U********n
发帖数: 1010 | 7 我刚刚贴出来的，就是方便大家看的。
呵呵，我也是刚刚搜出来的。
【在 z****u 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵，OE什么意思啊？科普一下。。。
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
