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发帖数: 33885 | 1 The overwhelming conclusion is that of stocks remaining in a MULTI-YEAR BULL
MARKET that is being driven higher by a number of fundamental factors such
as corporate earnings OR Fed MONEY PRINTING (POMO). It does not matter which
is prevalent at a particular point in time as the market SPIRALS HIGHER in
reaction to waves of INFLATIONARY buying pressure, something that the dark
pools of capital recognised right at the birth of the Stocks Stealth Bull
Market in March 2009 (15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear
Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 ) and have since been eager to bid the stock
market higher whilst MOST have FAILED to participate on the rally to date as
they have been fooled into waiting for the bear market bottom to
materialise (or even worse have been actively engaged in betting against the
bull market) and will continue to do so all the way to new all time highs
which is why this remains STOCKS STEALTH BULL MARKET.
The same INFLATIONARY forces are driving up ALL assets such as commodities,
whilst at the same time holding up other weaker assets such as housing that
should be in free fall as the bubble baton has been passed from one asset
class to another.
In our fiat currency, big government deficit spending, debt accumulating
world, governments CANNOT ALLOW FOR DEFLATION, not only that but inflation
can literally always be created at the press of a button, therefore as asset
prices are leveraged to consumer prices that is where wealth protection
strategies should continue to be focused.
The reason why many analysts can miss whole bull and bear markets is because
they get attached to one or two elements and then run a mile with it, such
as the rise of China and India and demise of the U.S. along with much of the
west, or the impact of demographics as ageing populations hit the west hard
, though China will be hit even harder in the 2020's, or the fact that the
US is on the path towards bankruptcy (by means of high inflation), well yes
it is, but so what? Because that path will contain many bull and bear
markets, the consequences of a bankruptcy event are probably many decades
away. So one needs to be focused on the time horizons at hand not take a
view of the world say 40 years down the road when there is so much that can
happen between now and then (as the Japan environmental and nuclear disaster
illustrates) that can completely flip the future world view on its head. So
what is going to happen or not happen 40 years from now is pretty much
irrelevant in determining the stock market trend for 2011.
Key points to consider are that the US economy is strengthening, the world
economy is improving (despite the Japan black swan), that slowly the
Eurozone is immunizing itself form the bankrupting PIIGS, and without
repeating what's stated at length in the Interest Rate Mega-Trend Ebook that
despite the bankrupt banks still remaining bankrupt, but less so than where
they were a year ago, and so long as they remain busted the worlds central
banks fearing financial armageddon are continuing the flow of easy money so
as to transfer tax payer / savers wealth onto the balance sheet of the
bankrupt banks which looks set to continue for at least the remainder of
2011. Yes all this money printing primarily as an aid for the bankrupt banks
to put even bigger bets on the derivatives markets that is INFLATING asset
prices such as stocks and commodities. Yes all this also means ever higher
real world inflation which stock prices are leveraged to, but again that was
covered at length in the Inflation Mega-trend Ebook of January 2010.
The technical picture remains bullish on near every level for 2011, as much
of the consensus view on the impact of the likes of rising interest rates
are just flat out wrong! Rising Interest rates are BULLISH for stocks! It's
what happens AFTER interest rates have risen that hits the stock market and
economy, and not during the actual trend. Even the highly contrary
Hindenburg Crash Omen has been doing the rounds again in the mainstream
press just as the market bottomed (why does the financial press never learn?
).
Therefore there is nothing in this analysis to suggest that an end to the
stocks stealth bull market is imminent, far from it, I see no reason why the
stock market should not continue trending higher well into 2012 (yes there
will be corrections for the highly vocal perma-bears to pounce upon once
more to announce an end to the non existant bear market rally).
So the question left to answer is to what heights will the stock market
reach by the end of 2011 / early 2012, which I next attempt to conclude
towards.
STOCK MARKET FORECAST 2011 FINAL CONCLUSION
The big picture is that of the stock market targeting a trend towards a new
all time high either by very late 2011 or early 2012 i.e. a break of Dow 14,
200 which would represent a gain of more than 15% on the last close (12,320)
or nearly 2000 points. |
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