v*******g
发帖数: 334 | 1 http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=787729263
1. 最有效最好的方法: 做空股指期货,或者融券卖空. 作为内地投资者做空股指期货,
或者融券卖空是最有效的方法,当经济转坏的时候,股市往往会提前反映这一状况,即使
是经济陷入滞胀,紧缩的货币政策也可以把股市打入万丈深渊,08年就是最好的例证. 有
人担忧经济二次探底会促使银行再次放出大量信贷,推动股市,但物价不仅是经济更是政
治问题,中国历次物价暴涨都引发了高层震荡,1988-1989, 1993-1995, 都导致了领导层
的更迭,而2012年则同样面对一个微妙的时点,在此时物价问题更是重中之重. 故再次放
出大量信贷可行性不大.
投资者可选择做空内地股指期货,或者融券卖空601代码的股票. 有条件的投资者也
可选择在香港市场做空中国,但在香港市场更好的选择是做空内地的地产,银行,基建,及
资源类股票
2. 第二种做空法是: 做空国内商品期货:铜，锌，钢材，铝．这几种商品都和工业联系
，而货币属性较差，一旦经济衰退或陷入滞胀而导致的紧缩措施， 这几种大宗商品
首当其冲．投资者可关注楼市和车市这两个市场现在都隐约出现拐点， 预示着做空
着几种商品的机会正在到来．
３．第三种方法是：买入高息的企业债券． 这个方法有一定的风险但不识债券的支
付风险， 现在国内的一些城投债利率可达８％以上，随着市场对地方债务风险的关
注未来城投债利率可能继续上升．作为中小投资者尚无需担心可能的支付风险，因为在
现行政治体制下政府会竭力确保债务的偿付， 即使出现偿付困难也会足额赔付中小
投资者的．即使在成熟市场如香港． 雷曼迷你债也是足额赔付中小投资者的．况且
内地的债市和股市有一定的跷跷板效应，08年股市差而债市好，投资者不紧可以获得利
息收入还可以获得一定的交易价差利润。 此外，投资者有条件的可考虑一些内地房
企在海外发行的利率双位数的债券．但需仔细甄别， 看发债企业是否在０８――０
９年有提前以折扣价赎回债券的先例（如浙江绿城）． 当经济尚未衰退而货币紧缩
的情况下会导致企业用高息募集资金的情况．而当经济真的衰退的情况下这样的机会几
乎没有．即使出现滞胀， 接近１０％或以上的利率也可以完全弥补投资者的损失．
在1993--1995年购买利率达10%以上的国库券的投资者获得的丰厚收益就是明证, 为什
么大家只记得国债327而忘记了债券的基本属性呢.
4. 第四种方法是：在外汇市场做空澳元，韩元 。 一旦如果中国的经济二次探底,抑
或陷入滞胀对大宗商品的需求肯定减少，那么澳大利亚作为一个对中国的资源出口大国
必将受到严重冲击，大家难道没有注意到因为中国的宏观调控，澳大利亚央行已经停止
加息了。而一旦如果中国的经济二次探底，那么进口肯定受影响，而韩国的第一大出国
既是中国，加上朝韩的紧张形势，韩元很有可能被中国的经济探底拉下水。投资者也可
适当做空日元。但需关注美国的经济复苏，若美国情况良好，则应慎重做空日元。 但
中国经济若转差则日本出口必将受挫， 日本央行可能会有益使日元贬值以鼓励出口，
故投资者可有一定机会。
5. 第五种方法是：购买美元。 但普遍预期人民币要升值的时候，购买美元岂不是要
赔钱？ 大家还记得09年是怎么说美元的吗？ 但首先崩溃的却是欧元。同样当08年危及
的时候， 人民币远期NDF交易达到过1：7.3的低位。其实大家曲解了当时央行维持汇率
稳定的意思，既是不升值也不贬值。但一旦经济情况转坏或滞胀，贬值拉动出口很可能
成为现实。同时当经济不好时热钱会大量流出回补美元，正如眼下从欧元撤出回补美元
一样。 而且伴随时间的推移，美联储升息的可能正逐步加大。美元强势也是最符合美
国利益的，只有强势美元才能让美国国债卖的出去。况且即使贬值的话也可以旅游到美
国花掉，所以购买美元可以说会是一项还不错的交易。 | b********t
发帖数: 8181 | 2 呵呵，不可思议，除非期待社会出现动荡，不然做空祖国就是活腻了..... | s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 3 做空整个中国市场绝对是一个很愚蠢的想法
但是如果可以一揽子做空ccme/rino等这些借壳上市的小盘子中概，估计胜算比较高。 | n******m
发帖数: 554 | 4 不一定哦，许多私营企业都已经给限价令搞的举步为艰了...
【在 b********t 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵，不可思议，除非期待社会出现动荡，不然做空祖国就是活腻了.....
| b********t
发帖数: 8181 | 5 这个跟做空中国有什么关系，再好的宏观经济下也有倒闭的企业，适者生存。
【在 n******m 的大作中提到】
: 不一定哦，许多私营企业都已经给限价令搞的举步为艰了...
| n******m
发帖数: 554 | 6 确实
但是限价令的作用是个整个行业范围的危机。我很不支持限价令，所有的成本包括能源
、材料、人工都
花花的涨，产品价格你不让涨，你让我们企业贴钱生产啊？
【在 b********t 的大作中提到】
: 这个跟做空中国有什么关系，再好的宏观经济下也有倒闭的企业，适者生存。
| v*******g
发帖数: 334 | 7 末日博士看空中国经济
he said after 2013 China could have a hard-landing. | b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 8 RE
【在 b********t 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵，不可思议，除非期待社会出现动荡，不然做空祖国就是活腻了.....
| g********5
发帖数: 10335 | 9 经济硬着路 oh yea!
【在 b********t 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵，不可思议，除非期待社会出现动荡，不然做空祖国就是活腻了.....
| k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 10 YY
作者的secret agenda是为大牛市培养对手盘 | M*P
发帖数: 6456 | 11 哪家不受影响就做哪家的船。被影响的活该。
【在 n******m 的大作中提到】
: 确实
: 但是限价令的作用是个整个行业范围的危机。我很不支持限价令，所有的成本包括能源
: 、材料、人工都
: 花花的涨，产品价格你不让涨，你让我们企业贴钱生产啊？
| r****e
发帖数: 66 | | v*******g
发帖数: 334 | 13 7 Ways to Short China's Real Estate Bubble
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11060147/1/7-ways-to-short-china
NEW YORK (Insider Monkey) -More than a year ago Jim Chanos raised questions
about China's enormous real estate and construction investments and stated
that he is shorting China's real estate bubble. "Bubbles are best identified
by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said on CNBC, adding, "And
there's no bigger credit excess than in China."
Chanos didn't specifically lay out how he was shorting this bubble.
Foreigners aren't allowed to invest in stocks listed inside China. Chanos
implied that he was focusing on companies that sell cement, glass, copper,
steel and iron ore to China's booming construction and infrastructure
industry. Insider Monkey, your source for free insider trading data,
investigated several indirect ways of shorting China's real estate bubble.
Here are seven ways of shorting China's real estate bubble.
1. Shorting commodity companies that directly benefit from Chinese demand
BHP Billiton has been thriving on China's iron-ore demand over past few
years. Around half of Brazil's and Australia's iron-ore production have been
shipped to China during the past year.
Rio Tinto(RIO_), Vale(VALE_), Peabody Energy(BTU_), Freeport-McMoran(FCX_),
Southern Copper(SCCO_) and POSCO(PKX_) are among the other companies that
benefit from the China effect.
Last month Chanos also disclosed that he is short integrated oil companies
such as Exxon Mobil(XOM_), Royal Dutch Shell(RDS) and Petrobras(PBR_).
Shorting oil producers doesn't seem to be an effective way of gaining some
short China exposure though. Legendary investor George Soros has a large
Petrobras position, even though he is short emerging markets.
2. Shorting Commodity ETFs
Another alternative to shorting commodity produces is shorting commodies
through ETFs. We can short oil directly by selling US Oil Fund(USO_), Crude
Oil Total Return ETN(OIL_), PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN(OLO_), United
States 12 Month Oil Fund(USL_), US Gasoline ETF(UGA_), United States Brent
Oil Fund(BNO_), DB Oil ETF(DBO_), US Natural Gas ETF(UNG_) and Heating Oil
ETF(UHN_).
We can also short sell base metal ETFs such as Global X Copper Miners ETF(
COPX_), Global Copper Index ETF(CU_), iPath DJ-AIG Copper Total Return ETN(
JJC_), Nickel ETN(JJN_), Tin ETN(JJT_), Aluminum ETN(JJU_) and Lead ETN(LD_).
Alternatively we can short US Commodity Index ETF(USCI_) or ProShares Trust
Short Basic Materials(SBM_) to build a short position in basic materials.
We should warn the readers that this is not a fool-proof way of profiting
from a possible Chinese real estate bubble though. There are several
prominent hedge fund managers who consider commodities as a hedge against a
possible US dollar depreciation. Jim Rogers is extremely bullish about
commodities claiming that commodities will go up regardless of what happens
in the U.S. and World economy.
3. Shorting Country ETFs
Brazil and Australia disproportionally benefit from China's raw material
demand. Retail investors can short Brazil and Australia ETFs to bet on the
collapse of China's real estate and infrastructure investments.
Possible short candidates are iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ_), Global X Brazil
Mid Cap ETF(BRAZ_), ProShares Ultra MSCI Brazil(UBR_), iShares MSCI
Australia Index Fund(EWA_) and IQ Australia Small Cap ETF(KROO_).
South Korea and Japan are the other countries that benefit from the boom in
the Chinese economy. Investors should consider selling iShares MSCI South
Korea Index Fund(EWYl), IQ South Korea Small Cap ETF(SKOR_), iShares MSCI
Japan Index Fund(EWJ_), iShares MSCI Japan SM Cap(SCJ_), Wisdom Tree Japan
Small Cap Fund(DFJ_) and SPDR Russell/Nomura Prime Japan ETF(JPP_).
4. Shorting Chinese ETFs
A more direct and efficient way of profiting from a potential Chinese real
estate bubble is shorting Chinese ETFs. It may not be feasible for a multi-
billion dollar hedge fund to use this method, but retail investors doesn't
have size problem here.
The best China ETFs to short seem to be Guggenheim China Real Estate ETF(TAO
_), EGS INDXX China Infrastructure ETF(CHXX_) and Global X China Materials
ETF(CHIM_).
These three ETFs are directly related to China's real estate market and
should decline the most in the event of a collapse in the construction and
infrastructure industry. Alternatively, one can short broader Chinese ETFs
to profit from this, too.
When the real estate bubble popped in the US, everything went down. iShares
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index(FXI_), the most widely held Chinese ETF, is
arguably best-placed to capitalize on a rise/fall of China's fortunes.
SPDR S&P China(GXC_), Market Vectors China ETF(PEK_), Hong Kong Index Fund(
EWH_).
Guggenheim/AlphaShares China All-Cap Fund(YAO_), Guggenheim/AlphaShares
China Small Cap Index ETF(HAO_), iShares FTSE NAREIT Asia ETF(IFAS_) and RMR
Asia Pacific Real Estate Fund(RAP_) are among the other alternatives.
5. Buying Short ETFs
There are several ETFs available for investors who can't or don't want to
short sell stocks. Theoretically, short selling exposes investors to
potentially unlimited losses with limited gains.
The following ETFs limit losses for its investors who want to gain some
short exposure to Chinese stocks: ProShares Trust Short FTSE/Xinhua China
ETF(YXI_), Direxion Daily China Bear 3X Shares(CZI_), ProShares UltraShort
MSCI Emerg(EEV_), ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25(FXP_). We should
warn investors that the downside protection of these short or ultrashort
ETFs usually comes with a high price tag.
6. Shorting Chinese Real Estate-Related Companies That Trade in the US:
There are a few Chinese real estate-related companies that trade in the US.
For example, Home Inn's & Hotels Management(HMIN_) is a Chinese hotel
company but it also develops properties in China.
The other stocks that can potentially be shorted are China Housing & Land(
CHLN_), Xinyuan Real Estate(XIN_), E-House(EJ_), China Real Estate
Information Company(CRIC_), China Shuangji Cement (CSGJ.OB), and China HGS
Real Estate (CAHS.OB).
7. Shorting Other Chinese companies with the highest open short interest
Another way of profitting from a Chinese real estate bust is to short the
weakest Chinese stocks that trade in the U.S. The Chinese stocks with the
highest open short interest are more likely to be vulnerable to a downturn
in Chinese markets.
Here are some candidates that recently had the highest open short interest:
China MediaExpress(CCME_), China-Biotics(CHBT_), China Agritech(CAGC_),
Duoyuan Global Water(DGW_), China Biologic Products(CBPO_), Telestone
Technologies(TSTC_), China New Borun(BORN_), Harbin Electric(HRBN_), China
Integrated Energy(CBEH_) and Gulf Resources (GFRE_). | t******y
发帖数: 6206 | 14 做空中国的事教授不会干，做空日本的事教授经常干 |
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