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发帖数: 7948 | 1 CICC Says Global Banks Too Bullish on China Stocks as Pimco Buys
April 14, 2011, 1:22 PM EDT
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- China’s biggest investment bank is turning “
cautious” on the country’s stocks, just as six of its overseas rivals and
the manager of the largest mutual fund say it’s time to buy.
China International Capital Corp. predicts slowing economic and earnings
growth will limit equity gains after the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
rose 6.2 percent this year, the best advance among major Asian indexes. The
top-ranked provider of China research in Asiamoney’s survey recommends “
defensive” companies including drugmakers and consumer staples producers.
“We’re turning cautious,” Hao Hong, the global equity strategist at CICC,
said in an April 13 interview in Shanghai. “Economic growth is going to
slow down in the coming months.”
CICC’s reduced outlook follows recommendations to boost Chinese stock
holdings in the past month from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase &
Co., Macquarie Group Ltd. and HSBC Holdings Plc, along with forecasts for
further gains of at least 14 percent by Credit Suisse Group AG and Deutsche
Bank AG. Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $1.2 trillion,
said this week it has a “large overweight” position in China.
While the country’s shares have rallied for three straight weeks on
speculation that the People’s Bank of China is near the end of its campaign
to tighten monetary policy, Hong says bullish investors may be disappointed.
Rate Bets
The Hang Seng gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong, or H-shares,
dropped 23 percent in the six months after the central bank stopped raising
rates in 2007, underperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 14
percentage points. In 2004, the H-share gauge rose about 3 percent after
rate increases ended, trailing the MSCI index by 8 percentage points.
The Hang Seng index slipped 0.6 percent to 13,481.73 yesterday, paring this
year’s gain to 6.2 percent.
“Consensus sees the beginning of the end of the interest- rate hike cycle
and thus is getting bullish,” Hong said in a report sent to clients April
10. “The end of the cycle is not necessarily bullish judging from the
experiences of 2004 and 2007.”
Hong, a former analyst at Morgan Stanley and strategist at Citigroup Inc.,
predicted in January 2010 that stocks would retreat as the government reined
in property speculation. The Hang Seng China gauge dropped 10 percent in
the first half while the Shanghai Composite Index of so-called A-shares
traded on the mainland declined 27 percent.
In November 2010, Hong advised investors to refrain from buying Chinese
stocks after the biggest rally in 15 months. The Hang Seng China gauge
declined for four straight months.
Inflation Jump
China has increased its benchmark lending rate by 1 percentage point to 6.31
percent since October and lifted banks’ reserve requirements three times
this year to fight inflation and curb real-estate speculation.
Consumer prices jumped 4.9 percent in February from a year earlier, topping
the government’s full-year target of 4 percent. Inflation probably
accelerated to 5.2 percent in March, which would be the highest level since
July 2008, according to the median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by
Bloomberg. The government is scheduled to release the inflation figure today.
Policy makers will lift the key lending rate to 6.56 percent by year-end,
according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists on
March 22. Besides monetary tools, the government has deployed subsidies,
state-food reserves and the threat of price controls to counter inflation,
which Premier Wen Jiabao has described as a potential threat to social
stability in the nation of 1.3 billion people.
‘Sustainable Rally’
Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, boosted its 12-month
forecast for the Hang Seng index a day after the central bank’s rate
increase on April 5. HSBC, Europe’s largest lender, increased its rating on
China to “overweight,” while Macquarie, Australia’s biggest investment
bank, said investors should lift holdings because the central bank is near
the end of raising borrowing costs.
Chinese stocks were upgraded to “overweight” from “market weight” the
previous week by analysts Helen Zhu and Timothy Moe at Goldman Sachs, the
fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets. They recommended banking and property
shares and kept their 12-month target of 16,500 for the Hang Seng index. Jun
Ma, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest
lender, said in a report distributed March 21 that Chinese shares may climb
about 25 percent.
Maria Gordon, an emerging-market stock fund manager in London at Pimco, said
in an April 13 interview with Bloomberg Television that financial and
property stocks are attractive. The $236 billion PIMCO Total Return Fund,
managed by Bill Gross, is the biggest mutual fund in the industry’s history.
Cut Cyclicals
Frank Li, the China strategist at JPMorgan, said stocks may “seesaw”
before a “sustainable rally” late in the third quarter, according to e-
mailed comments yesterday. Goldman Sachs’s Moe, HSBC’s Garry Evans and
Credit Suisse’s Peggy Chan didn’t respond to phone and e-mail requests for
comment. Michael Kurtz, a strategist at Macquarie, declined to comment.
“Growth will be stronger than market expectations,” Deutsche Bank’s Ma
said in a phone interview yesterday. “We’re expecting a small re-rating of
the market as the macro fears recede.”
The MSCI China Index of mostly Hong Kong-listed China stocks “is cheap,”
Ma said. The gauge trades for 12 times estimated earnings, compared with its
historical average of 14.8, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The
Hang Seng gauge is valued at 11.1 times, compared with 11.6 for the MSCI
Emerging Markets Index.
Slower Growth
The government will report today that first-quarter gross domestic product
rose 9.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 25
economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with 11.9 percent in the
first three months of 2010.
CICC’s Hong advised investors to cut holdings of companies that rely on
accelerating economic growth to boost earnings, including raw-materials
producers. Profits at China-listed companies will rise about 19 percent in
2011, down from 40 percent last year, according to CICC estimates.
“It’s time to turn defensive,” Hong said. | k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 2 个人觉得该听pimco的
如果实体经济赚钱难了，煤老板阿中小企业主啊什么的就很有可能把钱往股市里堆来搏
傻了
嘿嘿
当然最终还是要看市场反应 |
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