c***1 发帖数: 3281 | 1 最近两天股市比较奇怪的强势,大概最重要的原因是媒体舆论又开始偏向QE3了?
本来是几乎不可能的了。死灰复燃? |
i****e 发帖数: 451 | 2 本来觉得没可能,不过看最近bond的走势好像又有戏似的?short bond已经快亏了一盏
金灯了,nnd
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 最近两天股市比较奇怪的强势,大概最重要的原因是媒体舆论又开始偏向QE3了? : 本来是几乎不可能的了。死灰复燃?
|
l****t 发帖数: 1379 | 3 QE3在出来的话,经济更难恢复了.
QE2就有很多人反对,光靠印钱是不能恢复经济的.
现在是乐观情绪在主导,但是数据都不行. GDP 已经是经济危机后的最低点了。
股票从QE2到现在长了27%, 但是如果刨去通货膨占,和实物黄金价格比,才长了4.7%
。
FED其实也没啥办法了, 利率不能再低了. 除了印钱还有别的招么?
美元和股市走势是相反,但是等哪天美元国际地位动摇,那就是和股市一起下去了.
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 最近两天股市比较奇怪的强势,大概最重要的原因是媒体舆论又开始偏向QE3了? : 本来是几乎不可能的了。死灰复燃?
|
k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 4 bond market and stock market
one has to die
Fed wants to save both
but might get both killed in the end
【在 l****t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : QE3在出来的话,经济更难恢复了. : QE2就有很多人反对,光靠印钱是不能恢复经济的. : 现在是乐观情绪在主导,但是数据都不行. GDP 已经是经济危机后的最低点了。 : 股票从QE2到现在长了27%, 但是如果刨去通货膨占,和实物黄金价格比,才长了4.7% : 。 : FED其实也没啥办法了, 利率不能再低了. 除了印钱还有别的招么? : 美元和股市走势是相反,但是等哪天美元国际地位动摇,那就是和股市一起下去了.
|
b********e 发帖数: 84 | 5 QE3的可能性很大,美国的债务是个大问题,没有QE3,就离default不远了。现在是股市
和债市的博弈,中国和美国的博弈。谁赢谁输都说不定的。 |
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 6 FED has to introduce QE3, the government has to support QE3, because if
Obama doesn't say yes to QE3, the crash of US economy will be blamed on his
administration, obviously he would rather to pass the "hot potatoes" to the
next president. In democratic political system, politicians only care about
their election. |
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 7 有个疑问:
QE3就一定导致了市场的反应是股市继续上扬吗?
这样下去的话,不要说QE2不够使,QE20也在有生之年退休之前可以看到了。 |
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 8 我个人认为,美国必须还要走回一段奋斗的苦日子。饿上三天,吃什么都香了。
日本现在进入了recession阶段了,中国也不会永远booming吧。
这两个冤大头已经被灾害干跨了一个,另一个能伺候多久是个事。 |
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 9 Yes, QE3 will prevent stock market from crashing. But DJI of 15000 during
QE3 doesn't worth the same as it during QE1.
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 有个疑问: : QE3就一定导致了市场的反应是股市继续上扬吗? : 这样下去的话,不要说QE2不够使,QE20也在有生之年退休之前可以看到了。
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 10
Exactly, but US voters will definitely say no to that, and no politician
dare to do that, except a few like Ron Paul.
There will be setbacks in China, such as hard landing and burst of property
bubbles, but in long term, China is still bullish.
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我个人认为,美国必须还要走回一段奋斗的苦日子。饿上三天,吃什么都香了。 : 日本现在进入了recession阶段了,中国也不会永远booming吧。 : 这两个冤大头已经被灾害干跨了一个,另一个能伺候多久是个事。
|
|
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 11 我是这么看的:
QE3可以直接导致了mitigate或者postpone债务的责任力度。但间接上能不能推导出股
市上扬,还是个问号。如果回回都这么干的话,那是不是以后就QE下去了?
14万亿也不是明年这时候就还的清吧?这话没人反对吧。
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Yes, QE3 will prevent stock market from crashing. But DJI of 15000 during : QE3 doesn't worth the same as it during QE1.
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 12 你看北京房价还会涨吗?现在是已经连涨10年了。
我跟我妈说把国内其中一两套房子卖掉,买$3M这边的房子,我看好的房子没有低于2M
的,1M的简直就是茅房,一说这事我妈就跟我跳脚。
那北京的好几套房子都放在那干啥啊,能下崽儿啊?
property
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : Exactly, but US voters will definitely say no to that, and no politician : dare to do that, except a few like Ron Paul. : There will be setbacks in China, such as hard landing and burst of property : bubbles, but in long term, China is still bullish.
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 13 QE3 will not necessarily cause stock market to go up and up, it might
prevent DJI to crash quickly, the energy from QE3 to pump up the stocks will
be less than QE1. As long as the fundamental doesn't change, even QE20 won'
t prevent the stock market from going to zero.
By the way, US will never be able to pay off the staggering debts, what they
can do is to default, or keep priniting (QE3, QE4,.....)
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我是这么看的: : QE3可以直接导致了mitigate或者postpone债务的责任力度。但间接上能不能推导出股 : 市上扬,还是个问号。如果回回都这么干的话,那是不是以后就QE下去了? : 14万亿也不是明年这时候就还的清吧?这话没人反对吧。
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 14 No one can tell you when the real estate bubble in the coastal cities in
China will burst, but it's definitely safer to transfer the assets in real
estate to commodities, such as gold, silver, oil and agriculture.
Gold and silver are real money, according to US consititution. The world is
running out of known reserves of oil at a rate of 6% per year, according to
IEA data. The global climate change and growing population and aging farmers
will all help to push up the price of agriculture.
Housing market in US will continue to be a disaster, there is no chance to
make money from that.
2M
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你看北京房价还会涨吗?现在是已经连涨10年了。 : 我跟我妈说把国内其中一两套房子卖掉,买$3M这边的房子,我看好的房子没有低于2M : 的,1M的简直就是茅房,一说这事我妈就跟我跳脚。 : 那北京的好几套房子都放在那干啥啊,能下崽儿啊? : : property
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 15 短期几年内,我认为default可能性不大,因为这意味着一连串的悲剧效果,比如
goverment close door, second crisis, 等等。政府应该没有足够的自信这么搞。
这一次据估算,如果关门要关两礼拜,然后gdp倒退1%。
what they
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : No one can tell you when the real estate bubble in the coastal cities in : China will burst, but it's definitely safer to transfer the assets in real : estate to commodities, such as gold, silver, oil and agriculture. : Gold and silver are real money, according to US consititution. The world is : running out of known reserves of oil at a rate of 6% per year, according to : IEA data. The global climate change and growing population and aging farmers : will all help to push up the price of agriculture. : Housing market in US will continue to be a disaster, there is no chance to : make money from that. :
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 16 Therefore, it's more likely to see QE3, QE4, QE5....
China and Japan will decrease their US dollar researves, then FED has to buy
bonds, then inflation in US will fly.
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 短期几年内,我认为default可能性不大,因为这意味着一连串的悲剧效果,比如 : goverment close door, second crisis, 等等。政府应该没有足够的自信这么搞。 : 这一次据估算,如果关门要关两礼拜,然后gdp倒退1%。 : : what they
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 17 现在的美国政府处在这样一个尴尬的位置下:
有句话,我忘了原文怎么说的,就是说怎么走都是损失,但取其轻。
我对美国越来越失望了。
我以前说过,不久的将来,税收,会提高到half的。因为钱是bubble出去的,就要
bubble回来。房地产肯定还在下跌中,我早说过很多次了,下跌也是回收策略之一。
buy
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Therefore, it's more likely to see QE3, QE4, QE5.... : China and Japan will decrease their US dollar researves, then FED has to buy : bonds, then inflation in US will fly.
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 18
Exactly, if US had no millitary dominance in the world, it has gone broke
already, much worse than Greece.
Tax rate will be higher, and interest rates will eventually fly, just like
in 1980s, there is no question about that. I believe there is still
opportunties to make money from shorting long-term bonds, but the timing is
not certain.
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 现在的美国政府处在这样一个尴尬的位置下: : 有句话,我忘了原文怎么说的,就是说怎么走都是损失,但取其轻。 : 我对美国越来越失望了。 : 我以前说过,不久的将来,税收,会提高到half的。因为钱是bubble出去的,就要 : bubble回来。房地产肯定还在下跌中,我早说过很多次了,下跌也是回收策略之一。 : : buy
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 19 这个债务是个定时炸弹,每年引爆一次,总这样的话,总处在还不起的状态下,总有一
天会连累全球的,其实已经连累了,欧盟已经晕菜了,如果不是德国这个大妈妈在后面
,估计也四面楚歌了。
最后,美国有可能像首钢似的,政府一笔勾销,所以IMF的头头说不定慈悲为怀,债务
清零,然后来个美元腾飞了。 要知道美元对人民币1:12的时候,那时候美国的gdp还
是很有发展潜力的,不过历史也不容易一丝不差地被复制。
现在回头看,卡恩这出戏是在下一盘很大很大的棋,剧本越写越感人了,感动ing.
they
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : Exactly, if US had no millitary dominance in the world, it has gone broke : already, much worse than Greece. : Tax rate will be higher, and interest rates will eventually fly, just like : in 1980s, there is no question about that. I believe there is still : opportunties to make money from shorting long-term bonds, but the timing is : not certain.
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 20
How about China and Japan? will they also let US default? Well, the decline
of US dollar, eventually to zero, is inevitable. The world will go back to
gold standard.
要知道美元对人民币1:12的时候,那时候美国的gdp还
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 这个债务是个定时炸弹,每年引爆一次,总这样的话,总处在还不起的状态下,总有一 : 天会连累全球的,其实已经连累了,欧盟已经晕菜了,如果不是德国这个大妈妈在后面 : ,估计也四面楚歌了。 : 最后,美国有可能像首钢似的,政府一笔勾销,所以IMF的头头说不定慈悲为怀,债务 : 清零,然后来个美元腾飞了。 要知道美元对人民币1:12的时候,那时候美国的gdp还 : 是很有发展潜力的,不过历史也不容易一丝不差地被复制。 : 现在回头看,卡恩这出戏是在下一盘很大很大的棋,剧本越写越感人了,感动ing. : : they
|
|
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 21 我最近travel了,没怎么跟踪希腊的债务事情,他们有结果了吗?
我听人说,希腊人很懒惰,不思进取的,他们出这篓子是早晚的。
其实咱们中国人比这些国家的老外,都勤劳多了,我每次回北京,我永远是起床最晚的
那个。 早晨7点外面就车水马龙了,晚上10点人家还在下班的路上,在美国只有
startup 创始人才这么累啊。有时候和老朋友在茶馆里品茶聊天,就忍不住彼此感慨,
中国人活的这么累,这么辛苦,还闹个最穷,要说不心疼自己的同胞那是假话啊
你看看欧洲那帮人,女人也不用上班,生个孩子就赚钱,越生越赚,结果呢,各个还都
闹个有经济危机需要赞助单位了,真滑稽。
中国人勤勤恳恳换来的几个兆的外汇,都养活这帮世界寄生虫了。
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : How about China and Japan? will they also let US default? Well, the decline : of US dollar, eventually to zero, is inevitable. The world will go back to : gold standard. : 要知道美元对人民币1:12的时候,那时候美国的gdp还
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 22 Well, hard-working people always deserves to earn most money, and lazy
people who don't work always deserves to go bankrupcy, and pay off the
amount they owe, that's always how the world works. Be philosophical, the
intrinsic properties of daily life, stock market, history and politics are
all the same. There might be some short period of time when the natural
rules do not work, just as now, but you can view it as a consolidation of a
bullish stock, the temporary retreat will eventually reverse to sky again.
UK people work hardest in 19th, so they became dominance in 19th. US people
work hardest at most of the time of 20th, so they became dominance in 20th.
Now Chinese people work hardest since reform and opening, there is no doubt
why China wont be dominance in 21st.
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我最近travel了,没怎么跟踪希腊的债务事情,他们有结果了吗? : 我听人说,希腊人很懒惰,不思进取的,他们出这篓子是早晚的。 : 其实咱们中国人比这些国家的老外,都勤劳多了,我每次回北京,我永远是起床最晚的 : 那个。 早晨7点外面就车水马龙了,晚上10点人家还在下班的路上,在美国只有 : startup 创始人才这么累啊。有时候和老朋友在茶馆里品茶聊天,就忍不住彼此感慨, : 中国人活的这么累,这么辛苦,还闹个最穷,要说不心疼自己的同胞那是假话啊 : 你看看欧洲那帮人,女人也不用上班,生个孩子就赚钱,越生越赚,结果呢,各个还都 : 闹个有经济危机需要赞助单位了,真滑稽。 : 中国人勤勤恳恳换来的几个兆的外汇,都养活这帮世界寄生虫了。
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 23 中国和日本这两个国家,日本其实撑不起世界格局的大台面,要撑还是得靠中国,1992
年一个美国经济学家号召学生学汉语,却没号召学生学日语和韩语,当然印度母语本身
就是西语系,所以不用号召了,主要是因为世界的工厂和市场潜力都在中国。
我认为中国是美国的养母,但不是生母,欧盟是兄弟,所谓的生母还是得从IMF这边下
手,但这边明显要找到亲美派的候选人,所以生母绕地球一圈也还是美国政府自己坐庄。
也许,黄金是唯一的选择,我看过neverlearn的图片,说黄金天使要飞到2025,这个图
片还是shock到我了,真的能发生吗?不敢想象,1500已经够飘的了,还飞到2025,可
怕。。。。
decline
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Well, hard-working people always deserves to earn most money, and lazy : people who don't work always deserves to go bankrupcy, and pay off the : amount they owe, that's always how the world works. Be philosophical, the : intrinsic properties of daily life, stock market, history and politics are : all the same. There might be some short period of time when the natural : rules do not work, just as now, but you can view it as a consolidation of a : bullish stock, the temporary retreat will eventually reverse to sky again. : UK people work hardest in 19th, so they became dominance in 19th. US people : work hardest at most of the time of 20th, so they became dominance in 20th. : Now Chinese people work hardest since reform and opening, there is no doubt
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 24
1992
庄。
Actually Chinese leaders have been so smart, they knew that no country will
be the single dominance of the world in the next century, the world politics
will be in a multipole framwork. US is still the dominance of North America
, Brazil should be the dominance of South America, Germany and France are
both dominance of Western Europe, Turkey will show great potential in middle
east, China will be dominace of Far East. Japan will compete with China,
but Japan has serous demographic problem, clearly there is no chance for
Japanese to reverse their sluggish economy in the next 50 years.
If you plot the gold prices vs time, in a logrithm format, you can see the
gold price in this decade is increasing as a straight line, if you
extrapolate it into 2016, the price will be $5000/oz. If you take the CPI
into account, the number should go to $7000/oz. Anyway, no one knows how
much it will go, but there is no question it will go up much higher.
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 中国和日本这两个国家,日本其实撑不起世界格局的大台面,要撑还是得靠中国,1992 : 年一个美国经济学家号召学生学汉语,却没号召学生学日语和韩语,当然印度母语本身 : 就是西语系,所以不用号召了,主要是因为世界的工厂和市场潜力都在中国。 : 我认为中国是美国的养母,但不是生母,欧盟是兄弟,所谓的生母还是得从IMF这边下 : 手,但这边明显要找到亲美派的候选人,所以生母绕地球一圈也还是美国政府自己坐庄。 : 也许,黄金是唯一的选择,我看过neverlearn的图片,说黄金天使要飞到2025,这个图 : 片还是shock到我了,真的能发生吗?不敢想象,1500已经够飘的了,还飞到2025,可 : 怕。。。。 : : decline
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 25 你写的这段历史我很赞同,曾经的古罗马帝国也是很勤劳勇敢和智慧的民族,到现在我
还崇尚那个时代的罗马,他们当时统治全球的宗教色彩是高于法律高于一切的,要知道
pope现在到美国,都还是贵为元首级待遇,美国总统要放下公务,全程陪伴的。
你这个ID我从没见过,但我们探讨的话题和内涵都十分接近,很高兴知道你的存在。我
一直相信,地球的某个角落总有适合你交流的人存在着。
中国眼下的问题啊,主要是各个方向上的发展不够均衡,有些方面过快,有些方面滞缓
,有些是需求和世界接轨太早,有些是供应远离国际标准化,所以贫富不均是结果,绝
非主因。 我知道延安和以前没什么区别,陕西和甘肃这些地区甚至都不比从前了,曾
经的沧海桑田,如今也沙漠连连,曾经的四季如春也变得四季的污浊,所以中国的问题
比较有自己的特色。所以中国能不能发展成强国,还是有一段整合的道路有走,这个过
程要的。
people
.
doubt
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : 1992 : 庄。 : Actually Chinese leaders have been so smart, they knew that no country will : be the single dominance of the world in the next century, the world politics : will be in a multipole framwork. US is still the dominance of North America : , Brazil should be the dominance of South America, Germany and France are : both dominance of Western Europe, Turkey will show great potential in middle : east, China will be dominace of Far East. Japan will compete with China, : but Japan has serous demographic problem, clearly there is no chance for
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 26 这个我能信,我觉得如果QE3真的来了,这个预测有潜力可挖。但这不是太悲剧了吗?
坊间有这样一个说法,经济萧条的时候,富人会希望从黄金这上面来达到保值的有效性
。所以黄金飘高是对美国经济实体的反讽之镜。我认为美国从来都不是一个能引导世界
消费格局的国家,恰恰相反,法国才是!但现在是亚洲市场占据了主旋律。美国的创新
格局可能暂居首位,但推动市场活力和激活就业状况的受益者依然是亚洲那边的。所以
美国这地方,还真看不出未来五年有什么源动力能扩大就业规模。要知道人家都去亚洲
干事业了,美国的酒店就没什么生意人过来住了,没看那些五星级hotel coupon满天飞
吗。
if you plot the gold prices vs time, in a logrithm format, you can see the
gold price in this decade is increasing as a straight line, if you
extrapolate it into 2016, the price will be $5000/oz. If you take the CPI
into account, the number should go to $7000/oz. Anyway, no one knows how
much it will go, but there is no question it will go up much higher.
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : 1992 : 庄。 : Actually Chinese leaders have been so smart, they knew that no country will : be the single dominance of the world in the next century, the world politics : will be in a multipole framwork. US is still the dominance of North America : , Brazil should be the dominance of South America, Germany and France are : both dominance of Western Europe, Turkey will show great potential in middle : east, China will be dominace of Far East. Japan will compete with China, : but Japan has serous demographic problem, clearly there is no chance for
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 27 Yes, how to fill up the gap between coastal parts and inland parts of China
is a big challenge. But, as I said, be philosophical.
2000 years ago, the economic center of China was Xi'an, 500 years ago, was
Jiangnan, 80 years ago, was Shanghai, during China-Japan war, was in
northeast China, 15 years ago, was Guangdong, now it's Guangdong and
Shanghai. Who can imagine Guangdong become a richest province in 30 years if
there is not reform and opening? So if you view it dynamically, the economy
itself should have a momentum to find a balance all the time, however this
momentum can be stopped by many historic and political reasons. The right
thing to do, and I believe it is what the chinese government is doing, is
that to set up a free market which is running smoothly as gurrantted
politically. Free market is like Le Chatelier's principle, it lets money
flow into the places where need money most and can generate decent returns.
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你写的这段历史我很赞同,曾经的古罗马帝国也是很勤劳勇敢和智慧的民族,到现在我 : 还崇尚那个时代的罗马,他们当时统治全球的宗教色彩是高于法律高于一切的,要知道 : pope现在到美国,都还是贵为元首级待遇,美国总统要放下公务,全程陪伴的。 : 你这个ID我从没见过,但我们探讨的话题和内涵都十分接近,很高兴知道你的存在。我 : 一直相信,地球的某个角落总有适合你交流的人存在着。 : 中国眼下的问题啊,主要是各个方向上的发展不够均衡,有些方面过快,有些方面滞缓 : ,有些是需求和世界接轨太早,有些是供应远离国际标准化,所以贫富不均是结果,绝 : 非主因。 我知道延安和以前没什么区别,陕西和甘肃这些地区甚至都不比从前了,曾 : 经的沧海桑田,如今也沙漠连连,曾经的四季如春也变得四季的污浊,所以中国的问题 : 比较有自己的特色。所以中国能不能发展成强国,还是有一段整合的道路有走,这个过
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 28
I don't know much about France. How do French lead the consuming market?
但现在是亚洲市场占据了主旋律。美国的创新
Most people believe in US everything just like believing in a religion, the
truth tells you that the situation is pretty dangerous.
Actually the other way to interpret why so many US companies move so many
assets to China and emerging markets is that, except making money, to
pretect their assets from being devalued in the US domestic market.
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 这个我能信,我觉得如果QE3真的来了,这个预测有潜力可挖。但这不是太悲剧了吗? : 坊间有这样一个说法,经济萧条的时候,富人会希望从黄金这上面来达到保值的有效性 : 。所以黄金飘高是对美国经济实体的反讽之镜。我认为美国从来都不是一个能引导世界 : 消费格局的国家,恰恰相反,法国才是!但现在是亚洲市场占据了主旋律。美国的创新 : 格局可能暂居首位,但推动市场活力和激活就业状况的受益者依然是亚洲那边的。所以 : 美国这地方,还真看不出未来五年有什么源动力能扩大就业规模。要知道人家都去亚洲 : 干事业了,美国的酒店就没什么生意人过来住了,没看那些五星级hotel coupon满天飞 : 吗。 : : if you plot the gold prices vs time, in a logrithm format, you can see the
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 29 邓小平在动乱后马上抓经济,马上去南方画个圈,是没错的,就是把大家都转移到过上
小康的日子,这有什么不对的。我父母也跟我说过,你们都得感谢邓小平,没有邓小平
,你大学毕业以后就进国营单位大材小用去吧。你知道那个年代的大学毕业生都干什么
工作吗?上班任务就是打个字。
有些中国人就是难伺候,跟着老毛过着一年吃一顿的红烧肉的苦日子不舒服,人家小平
同志叫你们慢慢富起来,先让自己人在前面趟路子,趟顺溜了,再叫老百姓跟着喝汤,
这他们也骂。
2005年我回国和几个清华的朋友吃饭的时候,我们都回首了当年六四的事情,那时候都
骂赵紫阳的儿子倒彩电,现在回头看,真幼稚,你一个小老百姓,叫你倒,你倒是有那
本钱吗?
其实他们那样做也没错什么,他家有优势,当然可以占据进口然后在内销了,这思路也
没什么反常的啊。你家没条件所以不能倒,难道你叫中国人民一直看黑白9寸吗? 谁有
条件改善中国人民的生活水准,就叫谁上呗。 那次吃饭我们都说,现在咱这觉悟比当
年刚动乱后的每周政治会反思都有正面效果。
China
if
economy
this
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Yes, how to fill up the gap between coastal parts and inland parts of China : is a big challenge. But, as I said, be philosophical. : 2000 years ago, the economic center of China was Xi'an, 500 years ago, was : Jiangnan, 80 years ago, was Shanghai, during China-Japan war, was in : northeast China, 15 years ago, was Guangdong, now it's Guangdong and : Shanghai. Who can imagine Guangdong become a richest province in 30 years if : there is not reform and opening? So if you view it dynamically, the economy : itself should have a momentum to find a balance all the time, however this : momentum can be stopped by many historic and political reasons. The right : thing to do, and I believe it is what the chinese government is doing, is
|
n******r 发帖数: 989 | 30 法国这个国家啊,我来跟你略微谈一谈,
法国在吃喝玩乐方面一直是首屈一指的,你看从红磨坊到法国香槟大道,知道香水大街
吗?法国的服装,法国的红酒,法国时尚是地球当今任何一个国家都依然难以逾越的。
但法国人的数学也是最强的。
电影作品不是常讽刺法国女人吗?结了三天婚的娇妻消失的无影无踪,在法国这不是什
么太惊奇的事。当然了戏剧作品会有夸张,就是在暗讽法国的生活作风和习气是相对而
言开放很多的。
为什么谈这些呢? 这样一个浮夸生涯下的国民,难免会有浮躁和自负,所以每次世界
大战,法国就是一堆墙头草,谁强我跟谁,谁弱我踹谁,他们自己到底有多少影响力,
我看不如德国,德国是稳扎稳打型的,这个民族就算别人灭了,他们都应该不会灭亡,
除此之外还有个死敌就是犹太民族也是很强盛的生命力。
其实我认为出国留学真能学到技术的地方就是德国,美国这地方我觉得远不够严谨,按
我的标准来看,他们的大学本科,还是太水了。
法国在美国这个层面上充当了一个小丑的角色,美国强就是爹,但哪天美国弱了,瞧着
吧,他们唱戏会唱一边子去的。
the
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : I don't know much about France. How do French lead the consuming market? : 但现在是亚洲市场占据了主旋律。美国的创新 : Most people believe in US everything just like believing in a religion, the : truth tells you that the situation is pretty dangerous. : Actually the other way to interpret why so many US companies move so many : assets to China and emerging markets is that, except making money, to : pretect their assets from being devalued in the US domestic market.
|
|
|
a*****e 发帖数: 121 | 31 我觉得QE3是必然的。可能不叫QE3这个名字罢了。现在是难得的抄底Commodities的时
候。 |
c********g 发帖数: 1106 | 32 我顶着个。
【在 a*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我觉得QE3是必然的。可能不叫QE3这个名字罢了。现在是难得的抄底Commodities的时 : 候。
|
N********n 发帖数: 8363 | 33 They say a picture is better than 1000 words, now we have 4 of them. |
h*******y 发帖数: 1220 | 34 暴跌会有的,QE3也会有的。我老预测:
稀拉等欧盟效果完蛋,欧元完蛋暴跌,美元升值,股票暴跌,QE3,美元跌,欧元升值
,又几个欧盟小国完蛋,欧元跌,美元升,美股暴跌,QE4。。。。。。。。
结果,中国做元大头,今天救这个,明天救那个。。。最后达到一个平衡。。。可能欧
盟玩蛋,中国和美国独大,然后开战。。。 |
B**********r 发帖数: 7517 | 35 Both stock and bond market will be good. Gold and silver will die.
★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs 6.88 - iPhone Lite
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : bond market and stock market : one has to die : Fed wants to save both : but might get both killed in the end
|
k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 36 as many have said, US has two options to get rid of its debt
one is direct default and one is through printing, i.e., QEn
QE looks less painful so most people tend to think US would go this route
well, if most people think so, I would bet on the other side.
I seriously suspect that US will default on its debt directly.
Euro and Dollar will die, possibly in the next two years
all the paper assests based on these two currencies are likely to lose
all the values
A new gold-based world currency will be launched after the crisis
【在 a*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我觉得QE3是必然的。可能不叫QE3这个名字罢了。现在是难得的抄底Commodities的时 : 候。
|
d********0 发帖数: 5142 | 37 QE3只是解燃眉之急而已,但治标不治本。 问题一直在那里流脓,所以涂抹酒精不是真
正的上上策。
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : as many have said, US has two options to get rid of its debt : one is direct default and one is through printing, i.e., QEn : QE looks less painful so most people tend to think US would go this route : well, if most people think so, I would bet on the other side. : I seriously suspect that US will default on its debt directly. : Euro and Dollar will die, possibly in the next two years : all the paper assests based on these two currencies are likely to lose : all the values : A new gold-based world currency will be launched after the crisis
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 38 It's the right thing to do, but it's not possible to happen. Because the US
voters will not allow it, and they still want to see their money in stock
market going up a little bit. hehe
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : as many have said, US has two options to get rid of its debt : one is direct default and one is through printing, i.e., QEn : QE looks less painful so most people tend to think US would go this route : well, if most people think so, I would bet on the other side. : I seriously suspect that US will default on its debt directly. : Euro and Dollar will die, possibly in the next two years : all the paper assests based on these two currencies are likely to lose : all the values : A new gold-based world currency will be launched after the crisis
|
k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 39 since when the voters in this country really have the control?
they are just a bunch of sheeples
we know who owns the country
US
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : It's the right thing to do, but it's not possible to happen. Because the US : voters will not allow it, and they still want to see their money in stock : market going up a little bit. hehe
|
d********0 发帖数: 5142 | 40 地方政府是两年一换届吧。
有个人说过,我们也许选不出一个好的政府,但我们能把差的政府给换下去。
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : since when the voters in this country really have the control? : they are just a bunch of sheeples : we know who owns the country : : US
|
|
|
d******u 发帖数: 663 | 41 lol,经济在下一次世界大战前很难“恢复”,保持不变倒不难。
【在 l****t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : QE3在出来的话,经济更难恢复了. : QE2就有很多人反对,光靠印钱是不能恢复经济的. : 现在是乐观情绪在主导,但是数据都不行. GDP 已经是经济危机后的最低点了。 : 股票从QE2到现在长了27%, 但是如果刨去通货膨占,和实物黄金价格比,才长了4.7% : 。 : FED其实也没啥办法了, 利率不能再低了. 除了印钱还有别的招么? : 美元和股市走势是相反,但是等哪天美元国际地位动摇,那就是和股市一起下去了.
|
d******u 发帖数: 663 | 42 PK郎咸平?
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 现在的美国政府处在这样一个尴尬的位置下: : 有句话,我忘了原文怎么说的,就是说怎么走都是损失,但取其轻。 : 我对美国越来越失望了。 : 我以前说过,不久的将来,税收,会提高到half的。因为钱是bubble出去的,就要 : bubble回来。房地产肯定还在下跌中,我早说过很多次了,下跌也是回收策略之一。 : : buy
|
d********0 发帖数: 5142 | 43 我不知道郎咸平是谁,也没读过,就是偶尔听过这个人名,我所言就是自己所感而已。
我真看不到美国未来的就业突破点在哪里,这不是经济数据里最大的权重指标吗,我只
看得到税收会持续走高的趋势势在必得。
我刻意在自己产生观点以前,不去看太多的定论模式参照物,那样会在新鲜的思绪爆发
之前,误导或者扭曲了自己本来的天然世界观。
【在 d******u 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : PK郎咸平?
|
s****m 发帖数: 5244 | 44 输少当赢?
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 现在的美国政府处在这样一个尴尬的位置下: : 有句话,我忘了原文怎么说的,就是说怎么走都是损失,但取其轻。 : 我对美国越来越失望了。 : 我以前说过,不久的将来,税收,会提高到half的。因为钱是bubble出去的,就要 : bubble回来。房地产肯定还在下跌中,我早说过很多次了,下跌也是回收策略之一。 : : buy
|
o**y 发帖数: 3065 | 45 Voters can be small people in the country and Jewish people in Wall street.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : since when the voters in this country really have the control? : they are just a bunch of sheeples : we know who owns the country : : US
|
c****3 发帖数: 10787 | 46 美国不怕美元被抛弃,就来QE3。美联储光想着经济,就不想想政治后果?当全球的其
他国家是傻
子?
要搞成全球通胀,结果就是全球反美。现在中东新上台的都是反美,反以色列的穆斯林。
逼得大家真不用美元结算石油,美国只好打仗了。
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 最近两天股市比较奇怪的强势,大概最重要的原因是媒体舆论又开始偏向QE3了? : 本来是几乎不可能的了。死灰复燃?
|
k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 47 US has paved the way for WW3
House Passes Bill Authorizing Worldwide War
http://stevebeckow.com/2011/05/house-passes-bill-authorizing-wo
林。
【在 c****3 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 美国不怕美元被抛弃,就来QE3。美联储光想着经济,就不想想政治后果?当全球的其 : 他国家是傻 : 子? : 要搞成全球通胀,结果就是全球反美。现在中东新上台的都是反美,反以色列的穆斯林。 : 逼得大家真不用美元结算石油,美国只好打仗了。
|
u****s 发帖数: 372 | |
M*****0 发帖数: 1061 | 49 都WW3了, 米帝还还债? 中国就不要指望手中的那点儿美债了。
as-momentum-builds-against-it/
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : US has paved the way for WW3 : House Passes Bill Authorizing Worldwide War : http://stevebeckow.com/2011/05/house-passes-bill-authorizing-wo : : 林。
|
s********0 发帖数: 3644 | 50 Fed committee里面有3个人已经公开反对QE了,
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 最近两天股市比较奇怪的强势,大概最重要的原因是媒体舆论又开始偏向QE3了? : 本来是几乎不可能的了。死灰复燃?
|
|
|
c***1 发帖数: 3281 | 51 我想不太可能有QE3了。现在唯一让fed得继续accomodative的是presidential
election year.但是看样子ben bernanke 在board里面得不到足够的支持,而且tea
party等势力也不小,最重要是inflation已经爬上了headline,大概不表现的hawkish一
点很难。
而且这一次跟QE2有点不同的是,QE2宣布的时候QE1已经结束,经济指数走下坡,所以
有足够的excuse说QE对刺激经济很重要。可是这次,QE2都还没结束,经济指数就差了
,很难说服constituents说QE对保持经济成长有重要的作用。
【在 s********0 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Fed committee里面有3个人已经公开反对QE了,
|
s*****n 发帖数: 5488 | 52 在股版你也是起床最晚那个啊。
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我最近travel了,没怎么跟踪希腊的债务事情,他们有结果了吗? : 我听人说,希腊人很懒惰,不思进取的,他们出这篓子是早晚的。 : 其实咱们中国人比这些国家的老外,都勤劳多了,我每次回北京,我永远是起床最晚的 : 那个。 早晨7点外面就车水马龙了,晚上10点人家还在下班的路上,在美国只有 : startup 创始人才这么累啊。有时候和老朋友在茶馆里品茶聊天,就忍不住彼此感慨, : 中国人活的这么累,这么辛苦,还闹个最穷,要说不心疼自己的同胞那是假话啊 : 你看看欧洲那帮人,女人也不用上班,生个孩子就赚钱,越生越赚,结果呢,各个还都 : 闹个有经济危机需要赞助单位了,真滑稽。 : 中国人勤勤恳恳换来的几个兆的外汇,都养活这帮世界寄生虫了。
|
x******g 发帖数: 33885 | 53 It's called "between a rock and a hard place."
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 现在的美国政府处在这样一个尴尬的位置下: : 有句话,我忘了原文怎么说的,就是说怎么走都是损失,但取其轻。 : 我对美国越来越失望了。 : 我以前说过,不久的将来,税收,会提高到half的。因为钱是bubble出去的,就要 : bubble回来。房地产肯定还在下跌中,我早说过很多次了,下跌也是回收策略之一。 : : buy
|
x******g 发帖数: 33885 | 54 You sound like a gold bug here...but I agree.
decline
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Voters can be small people in the country and Jewish people in Wall street.
|
x******g 发帖数: 33885 | 55 gold bug confirmed.
gold price in this decade is increasing as a straight line, if you
extrapolate it into 2016, the price will be $5000/oz. If you take the CPI
into account, the number should go to $7000/oz. Anyway, no one knows how
much it will go, but there is no question it will go up much higher.
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Voters can be small people in the country and Jewish people in Wall street.
|
x******g 发帖数: 33885 | 56 gurrantted?
haha 原来是个洋鬼子。
Jiangnan, 80 years ago, was Shanghai, during China-Japan war, was in
northeast China, 15 years ago, was Guangdong, now it's Guangdong and
Shanghai. Who can imagine Guangdong become a richest province in 30 years if
there is not reform and opening? So if you view it dynamically, the economy
itself should have a momentum to find a balance all the time, however this
momentum can be stopped by many historic and political reasons. The right
thing to do, and I believe it is what the chinese government is doing, is
that to set up a free market which is running smoothly as gurrantted
politically. Free market is like Le Chatelier's principle, it lets money
flow into the places where need money most and can generate decent returns.
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Voters can be small people in the country and Jewish people in Wall street.
|
x******g 发帖数: 33885 | 57 邓轮?
【在 n******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 法国这个国家啊,我来跟你略微谈一谈, : 法国在吃喝玩乐方面一直是首屈一指的,你看从红磨坊到法国香槟大道,知道香水大街 : 吗?法国的服装,法国的红酒,法国时尚是地球当今任何一个国家都依然难以逾越的。 : 但法国人的数学也是最强的。 : 电影作品不是常讽刺法国女人吗?结了三天婚的娇妻消失的无影无踪,在法国这不是什 : 么太惊奇的事。当然了戏剧作品会有夸张,就是在暗讽法国的生活作风和习气是相对而 : 言开放很多的。 : 为什么谈这些呢? 这样一个浮夸生涯下的国民,难免会有浮躁和自负,所以每次世界 : 大战,法国就是一堆墙头草,谁强我跟谁,谁弱我踹谁,他们自己到底有多少影响力, : 我看不如德国,德国是稳扎稳打型的,这个民族就算别人灭了,他们都应该不会灭亡,
|
x******g 发帖数: 33885 | 58 When you say that you don't know anything about the US politics pre-election.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : since when the voters in this country really have the control? : they are just a bunch of sheeples : we know who owns the country : : US
|
h**c 发帖数: 2376 | |
c***1 发帖数: 3281 | 60 我不喜欢阴谋论.可你们觉得这次wall street会不会搞个很bloody的correction,加上
难看的经济数据,逼fed 就范,再来一次easing啊? |
|
|
s*****n 发帖数: 5488 | 61 可乐姐怎么也会问这么业余的问题了?
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我不喜欢阴谋论.可你们觉得这次wall street会不会搞个很bloody的correction,加上 : 难看的经济数据,逼fed 就范,再来一次easing啊?
|
c***1 发帖数: 3281 | 62 业余深入民间,能了解大众心理.
【在 s*****n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 可乐姐怎么也会问这么业余的问题了?
|
c******g 发帖数: 1611 | 63 美女,一定要牢牢抓住美元贬值这条主线。
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我不喜欢阴谋论.可你们觉得这次wall street会不会搞个很bloody的correction,加上 : 难看的经济数据,逼fed 就范,再来一次easing啊?
|
u********e 发帖数: 4950 | 64 也许Fed 会发明一个新名词来做quantitive easing. |
k********8 发帖数: 7948 | 65 美元贬值是必然的系统设计产物
只有美国主导的产业革命革新才能救美元
其他的永远都是短暂的 |
c***1 发帖数: 3281 | 66 美元贬值在合理的防卫内,主要还是对大宗商品的影响,对整个故事来说短期是没什么直
接关系的.最多就是影响了指数里面的大宗商品股
在合理的范围内贬值,可能还对股市有利呢,譬如大multinationals可以赚取更多外汇.
【在 c******g 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 美女,一定要牢牢抓住美元贬值这条主线。
|
s****l 发帖数: 10462 | 67 姐啊,这合理的范围在哪里啊,谁说了算?
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 美元贬值在合理的防卫内,主要还是对大宗商品的影响,对整个故事来说短期是没什么直 : 接关系的.最多就是影响了指数里面的大宗商品股 : 在合理的范围内贬值,可能还对股市有利呢,譬如大multinationals可以赚取更多外汇.
|
c***1 发帖数: 3281 | 68 今天美元升了些,我看主要还是去买了些treasuries. treasuries今天大涨,yield下不
少.
【在 c******g 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 美女,一定要牢牢抓住美元贬值这条主线。
|
c***1 发帖数: 3281 | 69 合理就是不造成恐慌的速度罗.
【在 s****l 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 姐啊,这合理的范围在哪里啊,谁说了算?
|
t**x 发帖数: 20965 | 70 oyxy,
你的假设是中国的屎将来都比美国的金子值钱。
buy
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Therefore, it's more likely to see QE3, QE4, QE5.... : China and Japan will decrease their US dollar researves, then FED has to buy : bonds, then inflation in US will fly.
|