d*****1 发帖数: 407 | 1 估计八月二日很难达成协议了,既使达成协议,美债降级也再所难免。降级后每年多出
一千亿的利息,畅还是不可能的了。只有违约或部分违约这条路。 |
d*****1 发帖数: 407 | 2
同学们扌紧腰带过日子吧
【在 d*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 估计八月二日很难达成协议了,既使达成协议,美债降级也再所难免。降级后每年多出 : 一千亿的利息,畅还是不可能的了。只有违约或部分违约这条路。
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d******u 发帖数: 663 | 3 所以说救个屁,80年代初也救了,最后还不是双底。 |
P**H 发帖数: 2272 | |
l******c 发帖数: 2555 | 5 I don't think so.
Inflation is possible.
China holds 3 Trllions US$ deposit, USA can clear it in one second, just
input 000000000000 in the computer.
The debt is in terms of US$ which US government can generate in a laptop or
IPAD without any other cost.
Right now, the politicians in the congress just want a show time.
【在 d*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 估计八月二日很难达成协议了,既使达成协议,美债降级也再所难免。降级后每年多出 : 一千亿的利息,畅还是不可能的了。只有违约或部分违约这条路。
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b******u 发帖数: 1559 | |
l****t 发帖数: 1379 | 7 在说说LEHMAN倒闭的那个周末, 大家都觉的没事. 一定会救的.
然后周日宣布破产, 周一file chapter 11.
别太乐观, 这时候现金为王.
or
【在 l******c 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I don't think so. : Inflation is possible. : China holds 3 Trllions US$ deposit, USA can clear it in one second, just : input 000000000000 in the computer. : The debt is in terms of US$ which US government can generate in a laptop or : IPAD without any other cost. : Right now, the politicians in the congress just want a show time.
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d*****1 发帖数: 407 | |
v*****k 发帖数: 7798 | 9 说起来那天很有意思,我早上起来发现lewis和thain在电视上心里还想BAC不是要买
lehman么,跟美林搞什么。然后猛然意识到不对了。
【在 l****t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 在说说LEHMAN倒闭的那个周末, 大家都觉的没事. 一定会救的. : 然后周日宣布破产, 周一file chapter 11. : 别太乐观, 这时候现金为王. : : or
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t**u 发帖数: 1572 | 10 这个人在推销系统, 不择手段, 喜欢错误预测, 故作高手, 误导新人, 实MITBBS一大害
虫.
【在 b******u 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 同学,注意用词啊
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l******c 发帖数: 2555 | 11 My impression LEHMAN is a German company, not a US company.
At least, not US jewish company, that's the major reason GS controlled US government does not wnat to save it
【在 l****t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 在说说LEHMAN倒闭的那个周末, 大家都觉的没事. 一定会救的. : 然后周日宣布破产, 周一file chapter 11. : 别太乐观, 这时候现金为王. : : or
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s*****e 发帖数: 16824 | 12 就是default,那也是政府default,跟国债default还差不少,如果奥黑没脑残到那种
地步的话,他肯定是首先推迟偿还其他款项,而不是国债。他真让国债default了,下
届总统也不用选了,美国金融机构,养老基金全倒。
【在 d*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 估计八月二日很难达成协议了,既使达成协议,美债降级也再所难免。降级后每年多出 : 一千亿的利息,畅还是不可能的了。只有违约或部分违约这条路。
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d*****1 发帖数: 407 | 13 推迟还款不就是违约?
【在 s*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 就是default,那也是政府default,跟国债default还差不少,如果奥黑没脑残到那种 : 地步的话,他肯定是首先推迟偿还其他款项,而不是国债。他真让国债default了,下 : 届总统也不用选了,美国金融机构,养老基金全倒。
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s*****e 发帖数: 16824 | 14 那是政府违约,不是国债违约。
【在 d*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 推迟还款不就是违约?
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g8 发帖数: 3784 | 15 怀念当年的大字标题
【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 说起来那天很有意思,我早上起来发现lewis和thain在电视上心里还想BAC不是要买 : lehman么,跟美林搞什么。然后猛然意识到不对了。
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b******u 发帖数: 1559 | 16 re
【在 g8 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 怀念当年的大字标题
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U********f 发帖数: 2482 | 17 CUT EXPENSE 就不会DEFAULT了
【在 d*****1 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 估计八月二日很难达成协议了,既使达成协议,美债降级也再所难免。降级后每年多出 : 一千亿的利息,畅还是不可能的了。只有违约或部分违约这条路。
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c********r 发帖数: 649 | 18 呵呵,你们是都空了?气急败坏的等default,还制造恐慌,有short 都会cover 了吧
,政客讨价还价而已,肯定default不了。 |
g8 发帖数: 3784 | 19 就是,本来就是unthinkable的
【在 c********r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 呵呵,你们是都空了?气急败坏的等default,还制造恐慌,有short 都会cover 了吧 : ,政客讨价还价而已,肯定default不了。
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n**********d 发帖数: 270 | 20 50+% more chances the congress would not come together in the end of this vicious fight.
The fundamental difference between the two schools of politicians (tea
partiers v.s. socialist left) are just too wide to be gapped. Boehner is
actually a moderate republican but he could not pull his own party together
with a bill that the democrats can agree upon.
Members from both parties are probably weighing in the political pros and
cons of:
1. Bearing the possible blame of defaulting U.S. debt (but believe the other
party will bear more of that blame);
2. Breaking the promise they made to their constituents of either raising taxes (for the tea partier) or cutting deep into entitlement programs (for the left).
Behind close doors, I am sure all contigency plans are already in place for
federal govement agencies, federal reserve, and central banks. That may be
partially why the market has never shown signs of panic, because there is
no surprise for wall street.
A remotely possible scenario is that the president cites special provisions
in the amendment of the Constitution to increase debt ceiling without
authorization of congress.
Nonetheless, it is a suspense show that is being unfolded before our very
eyes. |
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c****3 发帖数: 10787 | 21 这么干奥巴马会不会被议员弹劾
provisions
authorization of congress.
eyes.
【在 n**********d 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 50+% more chances the congress would not come together in the end of this vicious fight. : The fundamental difference between the two schools of politicians (tea : partiers v.s. socialist left) are just too wide to be gapped. Boehner is : actually a moderate republican but he could not pull his own party together : with a bill that the democrats can agree upon. : Members from both parties are probably weighing in the political pros and : cons of: : 1. Bearing the possible blame of defaulting U.S. debt (but believe the other : party will bear more of that blame); : 2. Breaking the promise they made to their constituents of either raising taxes (for the tea partier) or cutting deep into entitlement programs (for the left).
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s********i 发帖数: 17328 | 22 他又不傻,干这吃力不讨好的事,debt cieling又不是他的责任,是congress的责任,
他要做的就是装装样子,表明他积极努力的促成谈判就行了。
【在 c****3 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 这么干奥巴马会不会被议员弹劾 : : provisions : authorization of congress. : eyes.
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k**o 发帖数: 15334 | 23 技术上来说美国不可能default,其债务都是dollar denominated,别的国家都可能
default,唯独美国不可能,丫自己就是印dollar的,想印多少都行,只是要控制
inflation。除非美元不再是reserver/trade currency,如果美国都要用另外一种
货币结算债务和贸易时,那美国才有可能default。 |
d*****1 发帖数: 407 | |