o***s
发帖数: 575 | 1 From Barry Ritholtz, editor of The Big Picture and all around good egg.
Not at all contrary to the generally held opinion, stock analysts are often
wrong. Usually wrong, in fact.
1. Analysts are almost always too optimistic. "Looking a year out, their
earnings expectations are about twice the growth rate we've averaged," he
says. So far pretty much in line with what we thought, but it gets better
from here.
2. Analysts are "especially wrong at turning points as you head into a
recession."
3. The "only time they weren't too bullish," Ritholtz notes, "was right in
the middle of a recession."
As a rule and according to Ritholtz's work, analysts are too optimistic at any point other than the middle of a recession.
The trade isn't shorting their optimism, which is nearly constant. The trade is buying their pessimism, which is specific to the lows of a recession. | l****t
发帖数: 235 | 2 The Big Shorts里有说，
如果你牛但你错了，没什么人会怪你，但如果你熊但你错了，你要被骂死，所以大多数
分析师都喜欢看牛 | o***s
发帖数: 575 | 3 有道理。
【在 l****t 的大作中提到】
: The Big Shorts里有说，
: 如果你牛但你错了，没什么人会怪你，但如果你熊但你错了，你要被骂死，所以大多数
: 分析师都喜欢看牛
| j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | | r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 5 这个说的不错！
今天分析师刚刚降级了STP， JASO， TSL， CEDC |
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