c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 1 There are many important differences between Japan's experience and the U.S.
today. But both instances, along with the Great Depression, are classic
examples of credit booms turned bust. These are fundamentally different from
garden-variety recessions and expansions triggered by inventory or demand
shocks.
They are supercycles in terms of both time frame and scope. They are marked
by asset-price bubbles that, upon reversal, trigger financial crises as the
banking system struggles to stay afloat. And importantly, these financial
crises tend to occur at the start—not end—of the debt-shedding process
that can take years or even decades fully to play out.
Somewhere in the early innings of this debt-shedding process, then, is where
the U.S. stands today. And it is why investors and policy makers shouldn't
overreact to bouts of bright economic news, like the retail-sales strength
in September. The economy is hardly on the verge of a break-out performance.
Any flurries of strength, in fact, only risk ushering in periods of renewed
weakness. |
w*****y
发帖数: 2182 | |
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 3 简单些，就是说这些common sense:
1.what goes around comes around
2.there is no free lunch in the end
3.in front the natural law, people struggle against it is in vain...
股市角度：美国股市会跌到你想象不到的程度！DJIA - 3000.
【在 w*****y 的大作中提到】
: 先顶，看不太懂
|
g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 4 gold : dow = 1:1 in 5 years.
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: 简单些，就是说这些common sense:
: 1.what goes around comes around
: 2.there is no free lunch in the end
: 3.in front the natural law, people struggle against it is in vain...
: 股市角度：美国股市会跌到你想象不到的程度！DJIA - 3000.
|
s**********n
发帖数: 2343 | 5 您老比我狠， 我老预测的５８８８我以为就够狠了， 没想到还有３０００的。
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: 简单些，就是说这些common sense:
: 1.what goes around comes around
: 2.there is no free lunch in the end
: 3.in front the natural law, people struggle against it is in vain...
: 股市角度：美国股市会跌到你想象不到的程度！DJIA - 3000.
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 6 美国和日本的本质不同， 是美国有货币供给自主权。
dji的实际value跌到３０００点都不稀奇。 face value长期会保持在１００００以上。
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: 您老比我狠， 我老预测的５８８８我以为就够狠了， 没想到还有３０００的。
|
r********n
发帖数: 409 | 7 好文！美国也许不会跟日本那样二十年还看不到未来。毕人估计十年。但是，也许更快
。因为现在有一只肥羊可宰。就是不知美国有设有这个胆量和时机。 |
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 8 Without google, what was Nikkei P/E before bubble burst, and what is Dow/SPX
P/E before the financial crisis?
S.
from
marked
the
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: There are many important differences between Japan's experience and the U.S.
: today. But both instances, along with the Great Depression, are classic
: examples of credit booms turned bust. These are fundamentally different from
: garden-variety recessions and expansions triggered by inventory or demand
: shocks.
: They are supercycles in terms of both time frame and scope. They are marked
: by asset-price bubbles that, upon reversal, trigger financial crises as the
: banking system struggles to stay afloat. And importantly, these financial
: crises tend to occur at the start—not end—of the debt-shedding process
: that can take years or even decades fully to play out.
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 9 纯技术而言，这图上DJIA的头肩形态是多么的让人浮想联翩！ |
