b*******i
发帖数: 156 | 1 一旦苹果上了500 Billion，我打算short它。现在Smartphone竞争这么激烈（看看MWC
新出的Phone就知道），我不看好它下面三年还能保持这么高的盈利和增长。请问怎么
样长期Short最便宜呢？买Put？Short Share？还是有其他方法？ |
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 2 请参考油工short CMG 的方法。
MWC
【在 b*******i 的大作中提到】
: 一旦苹果上了500 Billion，我打算short它。现在Smartphone竞争这么激烈（看看MWC
: 新出的Phone就知道），我不看好它下面三年还能保持这么高的盈利和增长。请问怎么
: 样长期Short最便宜呢？买Put？Short Share？还是有其他方法？
|
x***u
发帖数: 1087 | 3 short in the money call?
MWC
【在 b*******i 的大作中提到】
: 一旦苹果上了500 Billion，我打算short它。现在Smartphone竞争这么激烈（看看MWC
: 新出的Phone就知道），我不看好它下面三年还能保持这么高的盈利和增长。请问怎么
: 样长期Short最便宜呢？买Put？Short Share？还是有其他方法？
|
b*******i
发帖数: 156 | 4 ? Sell naked call?
【在 x***u 的大作中提到】
: short in the money call?
:
: MWC
|
x***u
发帖数: 1087 | 5 the risk of shorting deep in the money naked call is almost the same as that
of shorting the stock. You have a little bit time premium.
To cap the risk, perhaps buy deep in the money put?
【在 b*******i 的大作中提到】
: ? Sell naked call?
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 6 sell leap far OTM call, such as Jan 2014 785 call for a credit of $21.
you are OK even if AAPL reaches $800 a share within 2 years. |
x***u
发帖数: 1087 | 7 you could be wiped out by shorting either call or stock.
that
【在 x***u 的大作中提到】
: the risk of shorting deep in the money naked call is almost the same as that
: of shorting the stock. You have a little bit time premium.
: To cap the risk, perhaps buy deep in the money put?
|
b*******i
发帖数: 156 | 8 这个看起来不错，就是spread挺大，好像不容易成交。
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: sell leap far OTM call, such as Jan 2014 785 call for a credit of $21.
: you are OK even if AAPL reaches $800 a share within 2 years.
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 9 刚仔细看问题原来是问怎样最“便宜”。能不能再明确一下你的问题？ |
x***u
发帖数: 1087 | 10 yes, in that case you can tolerate an 800 aapl, but your profit is at most
21.
You need a very large margin to pocket at most 21 in two years.
The return is perhaps about the same as CD.
shorting deep ITM call is more risky but has larger potential profit.
So, there is a trade off.
it really depends on the risk you are willing to take and your expected
profit.
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: sell leap far OTM call, such as Jan 2014 785 call for a credit of $21.
: you are OK even if AAPL reaches $800 a share within 2 years.
|
|
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 11 spread is about $1.
if you have confidence that AAPL can't reach $800, you are taking in $20
free money for the slippage of less than $1.
【在 b*******i 的大作中提到】
: 这个看起来不错，就是spread挺大，好像不容易成交。
|
z****1
发帖数: 233 | 12 个人觉得苹果还要牛一两年，现在不是时候烧，得顺势而为
听一个大牛讲的还是不要烧苹果，不然就是温水煮青蛙。 |
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 13 if you have a conservative portfolio, such as one with 50% bonds, you
actually would have a lot margin to use. I prefer to short far OTM leap
calls on 3X ETFs.
【在 x***u 的大作中提到】
: yes, in that case you can tolerate an 800 aapl, but your profit is at most
: 21.
: You need a very large margin to pocket at most 21 in two years.
: The return is perhaps about the same as CD.
: shorting deep ITM call is more risky but has larger potential profit.
: So, there is a trade off.
: it really depends on the risk you are willing to take and your expected
: profit.
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 14 I agree. I would not be surprised if AAPL goes to 700-800 within 1-2 years.
【在 z****1 的大作中提到】
: 个人觉得苹果还要牛一两年，现在不是时候烧，得顺势而为
: 听一个大牛讲的还是不要烧苹果，不然就是温水煮青蛙。
|
b*******i
发帖数: 156 | 15 Short是要付利息的吧？如果short 3 年，即使股票没动，我不是要付三年的利息。
当然风险也希望小一些。
再想想Rim 的建议，岂不是折腾两年最多才赚21块/每股。
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: 刚仔细看问题原来是问怎样最“便宜”。能不能再明确一下你的问题？
|
x********u
发帖数: 1118 | 16 how much margin you need to sell a naked call @ 785?
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: sell leap far OTM call, such as Jan 2014 785 call for a credit of $21.
: you are OK even if AAPL reaches $800 a share within 2 years.
|
b*******i
发帖数: 156 | 17 Can't imagine a 700B-800B stock in such a competitive market. Maybe I lack
imagination :-)
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: I agree. I would not be surprised if AAPL goes to 700-800 within 1-2 years.
|
r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 18 这种大股票short的利息很小很小
【在 b*******i 的大作中提到】
: Short是要付利息的吧？如果short 3 年，即使股票没动，我不是要付三年的利息。
: 当然风险也希望小一些。
: 再想想Rim 的建议，岂不是折腾两年最多才赚21块/每股。
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 19 第一，short是短期的，不要想short3年。除非那种烂公司、财务有问题的，否则连3个
月都不要想。
第二，leverage 越高，越“便宜”。最“便宜”的就是options组合。同样买卖1000股
动用的资金，Deep In The Money Options要少很多。用Short OTM Options或远期
Options来降低成本并hedge。
【在 b*******i 的大作中提到】
: Short是要付利息的吧？如果short 3 年，即使股票没动，我不是要付三年的利息。
: 当然风险也希望小一些。
: 再想想Rim 的建议，岂不是折腾两年最多才赚21块/每股。
|
