V********e
发帖数: 578 | 1 Highlights:
"The bottom line is that near-term market direction is largely a throw of
the dice, though with dice that are modestly biased to the downside. Indeed,
the present overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome tends to be
associated with a tendency for the market to repeatedly establish slight new
highs, with shallow pullbacks giving way to further marginal new highs over
a period of weeks. This instance has been no different. As we extend the
outlook horizon beyond several weeks, however, the risks we observe become
far more pointed. The most severe risk we measure is not the projected
return over any particular window such as 4 weeks or 6 months, but is
instead the likelihood of a particularly deep drawdown at some point within
the coming 18-month period. "
"Emphatically, none of these conditions have historically been sufficient to
rule out further short-term market gains. Overvalued conditions alone can
go on for several years; overvalued and overbought conditions together can
continue for quarters; overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield
conditions can continue for months; exhaustion syndromes can also extend for
a few months, even though they typically resolve with deep declines over a
longer horizon of about 6 months. During those intervening periods, as is
clear on the chart above, the market can gain further ground. It's just that
this ground is rarely durable, and the surrender of that ground tends to be
both steep and abrupt. "
注解:
壮烈牺牲的熊都是被凌迟处死的，壮烈牺牲的牛是被一刀直捅心脏。活下来的熊大多都体无完肤，活下来的牛大多都有精神后遗症。
全文link:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120220.htm | h******e
发帖数: 908 | 2 If what he says is correct,
then why he still does this kind of low-paying job?
what does not he follow his prediction and make profit?
If what they say really work,
You can not get it for FREE.
Indeed,
new
over
【在 V********e 的大作中提到】
: Highlights:
: "The bottom line is that near-term market direction is largely a throw of
: the dice, though with dice that are modestly biased to the downside. Indeed,
: the present overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome tends to be
: associated with a tendency for the market to repeatedly establish slight new
: highs, with shallow pullbacks giving way to further marginal new highs over
: a period of weeks. This instance has been no different. As we extend the
: outlook horizon beyond several weeks, however, the risks we observe become
: far more pointed. The most severe risk we measure is not the projected
: return over any particular window such as 4 weeks or 6 months, but is
| c*****e
发帖数: 1106 | 3 low-paying job? John Hussman 很有名气啊，他前几年捐了$20M 给Univ.of Miami
建了个Institute for Human Genomics
【在 h******e 的大作中提到】
: If what he says is correct,
: then why he still does this kind of low-paying job?
: what does not he follow his prediction and make profit?
: If what they say really work,
: You can not get it for FREE.
:
: Indeed,
: new
: over
| p*******f
发帖数: 530 | 4 Hussman is great. We followed him for few years now
【在 c*****e 的大作中提到】
: low-paying job? John Hussman 很有名气啊，他前几年捐了$20M 给Univ.of Miami
: 建了个Institute for Human Genomics
| h******e
发帖数: 908 | 5 I made a mistake.
【在 c*****e 的大作中提到】
: low-paying job? John Hussman 很有名气啊，他前几年捐了$20M 给Univ.of Miami
: 建了个Institute for Human Genomics
| c*****e
发帖数: 1106 | 6 不要紧，他说的也不见得对。
他自己写weekly report，很多人乍一看也会认为是个analyst而已。其实他是从
academia来的，Phd in Economics from Stanford, professor of economics and
international finance at the University of Michigan。后来虽然下海，可能写研
究东西习惯了。 | V********e
发帖数: 578 | 7 GS的Jan Hatzius是另外一个具有大局观，又对market很有edge的。当然你是爱他还是
恨他，那又是另外一回事了。就象Heat的LBJ一样，怎么样都有人看他不顺眼，但这丝
毫不影响他将来进Basketball Hall of fame。
【在 p*******f 的大作中提到】
: Hussman is great. We followed him for few years now
|
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