Stock版 - Indian rupee fell 16% in 2011 versus the U.S. dollar |
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s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 1 With most assets around the world off to a fantastic start in 2012, it's
hard to find negative sentiment anywhere on the globe. But there is negative
sentiment in India…
Yesterday, I talked to Rahul to get an on-the-ground update on India. He
told me, "I have not met a single person here who is optimistic about the
Indian markets (and business people here are generally optimistic). Also,
globally, people are probably more negative about India now than at any time
in the last decade."
That's what I like to hear. When stocks are hated, you can find bargains.
Rahul told me sentiment toward India is so negative because the economy has
hit "rock bottom." GDP growth fell to "just" 6.1% last year. (Compare that
to 1.7% growth in the U.S. in 2011.) China is still seeing "roaring over-
investment" and needs to put the brakes on. But India can and will hit the
gas…
India's central bank is one of the few central banks in the world that still
has the room to lower interest rates now. Nearly every other country has
already cut rates dramatically. A round of interest rate cuts by India's
central bank would be like rocket fuel to India's economy and stock market.
And Indian stocks are cheap right now, especially smaller-cap stocks, like
the ones Rahul follows in his fund…
Companies that were nominally at 10-12 times earnings a couple years ago (
very high quality companies) are now at 4-5 times earnings, because earnings
in the last four years have doubled or tripled for these companies. Their
stock prices are similar to 2009 levels… but in valuation terms they're a
better deal today.
He also pointed out the Indian rupee fell 16% in 2011 versus the U.S. dollar
, so it's cheaper for Americans to buy in.
And the uptrend is in place this year… Most India funds are up over 25%
year-to-date. (That's in just two months!) |
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