H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 1 一切从现在算,以前的都是sunk cost。股票下面的走势是什么?
最坏是清零,从现在起亏6块6。一年以内这个可能性有多大?1%吧。
最好是翻回20块以上,从现在起赚翻了。一年以内这个可能性有多大?1%吧。
公司会赚大钱的,公司是有可能被收购的,但是你不知道何时发生,等于零。正如我现
在愿意给你100块,只要你能预测到我什么时候打嗝,误差不超过15分钟。但是你不知
道何时发生,等于零。
现在我只考虑股票是否会拦腰断成两截跌到3块,在什么情况下跌到3块?季报太差、
SEC罚款、官司输钱?三者同时发生跌到两块都有可能。但是我觉得3块是底,我会不会
错,当然会错,但是对于一直连续下跌六个月以上的股票,我一般用六个月均价减去三
个月均价得到一个数字,这个数字今天是13.66-9.87=3.79。然后用现在的价格减去3.
79做底。所以我得到一个拍脑袋的3作为我的心理底部。
如果我卖2013年1月5块的扑,我得到1块钱。到时候如果股票在4块钱,我必须用5块钱
买股,不亏不赚。如果股票跌到3,我亏一块,我觉得可以承受。如果股票在5上面,我
白捡一块。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t2/Stock/34373359.html |
p*********r 发帖数: 4593 | 2 Why bother to deal with GPRN junk stock. You can use this way to trade oil
related stocks, and even bank stocks. They will be making money consistently
, so the downside risk is much smaller. |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 3 that's an example because it's a hot stock on this board, I do trade
financial puts and calls.
consistently
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Why bother to deal with GPRN junk stock. You can use this way to trade oil : related stocks, and even bank stocks. They will be making money consistently : , so the downside risk is much smaller.
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h*****8 发帖数: 4754 | 4 hot stock on this board is good to short.
而且碰到ZNGA这种,卖PUT亏得没边了。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : that's an example because it's a hot stock on this board, I do trade : financial puts and calls. : : consistently
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Y****r 发帖数: 3473 | 5 first rule of selling covered calls is to avoid stock which can go down a
lot (from where it is ) |
h*****8 发帖数: 4754 | 6 他说的是卖扑吧。
【在 Y****r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : first rule of selling covered calls is to avoid stock which can go down a : lot (from where it is )
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p*********r 发帖数: 4593 | 7
But also has limited upside in near term basically it's like collect
interest. However, the original post is to sell naked put. Only should do
for the stocks have limited downside. Otherwise, it's too dangerous.
【在 Y****r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : first rule of selling covered calls is to avoid stock which can go down a : lot (from where it is )
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H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 8 一切从现在算,以前的都是sunk cost。股票下面的走势是什么?
最坏是清零,从现在起亏6块6。一年以内这个可能性有多大?1%吧。
最好是翻回20块以上,从现在起赚翻了。一年以内这个可能性有多大?1%吧。
公司会赚大钱的,公司是有可能被收购的,但是你不知道何时发生,等于零。正如我现
在愿意给你100块,只要你能预测到我什么时候打嗝,误差不超过15分钟。但是你不知
道何时发生,等于零。
现在我只考虑股票是否会拦腰断成两截跌到3块,在什么情况下跌到3块?季报太差、
SEC罚款、官司输钱?三者同时发生跌到两块都有可能。但是我觉得3块是底,我会不会
错,当然会错,但是对于一直连续下跌六个月以上的股票,我一般用六个月均价减去三
个月均价得到一个数字,这个数字今天是13.66-9.87=3.79。然后用现在的价格减去3.
79做底。所以我得到一个拍脑袋的3作为我的心理底部。
如果我卖2013年1月5块的扑,我得到1块钱。到时候如果股票在4块钱,我必须用5块钱
买股,不亏不赚。如果股票跌到3,我亏一块,我觉得可以承受。如果股票在5上面,我
白捡一块。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t2/Stock/34373359.html |
p*********r 发帖数: 4593 | 9 Why bother to deal with GPRN junk stock. You can use this way to trade oil
related stocks, and even bank stocks. They will be making money consistently
, so the downside risk is much smaller. |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 10 that's an example because it's a hot stock on this board, I do trade
financial puts and calls.
consistently
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Why bother to deal with GPRN junk stock. You can use this way to trade oil : related stocks, and even bank stocks. They will be making money consistently : , so the downside risk is much smaller.
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h*****8 发帖数: 4754 | 11 hot stock on this board is good to short.
而且碰到ZNGA这种,卖PUT亏得没边了。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : that's an example because it's a hot stock on this board, I do trade : financial puts and calls. : : consistently
|
Y****r 发帖数: 3473 | 12 first rule of selling covered calls is to avoid stock which can go down a
lot (from where it is ) |
h*****8 发帖数: 4754 | 13 他说的是卖扑吧。
【在 Y****r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : first rule of selling covered calls is to avoid stock which can go down a : lot (from where it is )
|
p*********r 发帖数: 4593 | 14
But also has limited upside in near term basically it's like collect
interest. However, the original post is to sell naked put. Only should do
for the stocks have limited downside. Otherwise, it's too dangerous.
【在 Y****r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : first rule of selling covered calls is to avoid stock which can go down a : lot (from where it is )
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g******s 发帖数: 3056 | |
s******e 发帖数: 696 | 16 what is your "theory" lke when groupon goes to 0, which btw, i think is
highly likely?
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 一切从现在算,以前的都是sunk cost。股票下面的走势是什么? : 最坏是清零,从现在起亏6块6。一年以内这个可能性有多大?1%吧。 : 最好是翻回20块以上,从现在起赚翻了。一年以内这个可能性有多大?1%吧。 : 公司会赚大钱的,公司是有可能被收购的,但是你不知道何时发生,等于零。正如我现 : 在愿意给你100块,只要你能预测到我什么时候打嗝,误差不超过15分钟。但是你不知 : 道何时发生,等于零。 : 现在我只考虑股票是否会拦腰断成两截跌到3块,在什么情况下跌到3块?季报太差、 : SEC罚款、官司输钱?三者同时发生跌到两块都有可能。但是我觉得3块是底,我会不会 : 错,当然会错,但是对于一直连续下跌六个月以上的股票,我一般用六个月均价减去三 : 个月均价得到一个数字,这个数字今天是13.66-9.87=3.79。然后用现在的价格减去3.
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H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 17 The theory is:
If you decided to buy GRPN at the price of 5, and GRPN goes to zero, you
lose five dollars.
If, instead, you sell a put with strike of 5, you will lose less than five
dollars if GRPN goes to zero.
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : what is your "theory" lke when groupon goes to 0, which btw, i think is : highly likely?
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t******y 发帖数: 6206 | 18 Limited earning and a high margin.
But as always, selling an option is better than buying an option.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : The theory is: : If you decided to buy GRPN at the price of 5, and GRPN goes to zero, you : lose five dollars. : If, instead, you sell a put with strike of 5, you will lose less than five : dollars if GRPN goes to zero.
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H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 19 他问的是如果股票成为炮灰,怎么减少损失。这就是说他想买这个股票,但是怕股票归
零。答案有五:
(1) 忍住手痒不入场,不会亏不会赚
(2) 买股票,最多外婆,最好情况下上不封顶,成为亿万富翁
(3) 卖扑,最多赚扑的premium,最坏情况下股票归零,总比买股要损失少一些。
(4) 买靠,最多损失靠的premium,最好情况下上不封顶,成为亿万富翁
(5) 打综合拳揉合以上元素
本文解释卖扑,并不是说卖扑是唯一办法。
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Limited earning and a high margin. : But as always, selling an option is better than buying an option.
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m********3 发帖数: 2125 | 20 以前油工说过AMR破产的可能性基本为0。结果还是发生了。 |
k**o 发帖数: 15334 | 21 我觉得那不太一样,他说AMR不会破产,不是基于数据,而是基于对政府一种
盲目的expectation,认为AMR too big to fail。实际上AMR那时候已经资不抵债,
债务很高了。至于GRPN,0 debt,profitable,怎么破产。
【在 m********3 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 以前油工说过AMR破产的可能性基本为0。结果还是发生了。
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