a**i
发帖数: 608 | 1 Marc Faber:Prepare for a Massive Market Meltdown
Published: Tuesday, 13 Nov 2012 | 7:54 AM ET
The markets are going to go into meltdown soon, so expect stocks to lose 20
percent of their value, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom
report told CNBC on Tuesday.
“I don’t think markets are going down because of Greece, I don’t think
markets are going down because of the ‘fiscal cliff’ — because there won
’t be a ‘fiscal cliff,’ ” Faber told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “The
market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint, the
global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the
reason why stocks, from the highs of September of 1,470 on the S&P, will
drop at least 20 percent, in my view.”
Faber, who is known for his bearish views, cited tech giant Apple, a company
whose disappointing earnings have caused its stock to fall 20 percent from
its September highs and 14 percent in the past month.
A series of poor quarterly earnings from corporate giants such as Amazon.com
McDonald's and Google have hurt investor sentiment in recent weeks.
Faber argued that the “fiscal cliff,” a rise in taxes and automatic
spending cuts, would actually involve some minor tax increases in “five
years’ time” and some spending cuts “in 100 years.”
What the U.S. needed was some pain, he said, aptly demonstrated by the euro
zone’s austerity measures that are attempting, with a mixed measure of
success, to curb gaping budget deficits.
“There will be pain and there will be very substantial pain. The question
is do we take less pain now through austerity or risk a complete collapse of
society in five to 10 years’ time?” he said, adding that there was a lack
of political will to tackle the U.S. budget.
Faber added: “In a democracy, they’re not going to take the pain, they’re
going to kick down the problems and they’re going to get bigger and bigger
.”
Payback Time
Faber identified several issues curbing an economic recovery, such as the
real estate market, which he said had never been so “overbuilt.” He also
said there was lots more deleveraging ahead.
“In the Western world, including Japan, the problem we have is one of too
much debt and that debt now will have to be somewhere, somehow repaid or it
will slow down economic growth,” Faber said. “I think we lived beyond our
means from 1980 to 2007, and now it’s payback period.”
Faber told CNBC that central bank stimulus was useless and the implosion of
markets was the only way to restructure the financial system.
“I think the whole global financial system will have to be reset and it won
’t be reset by central bankers but by imploding markets — either the
currency [markets, debt market or stock markets,” he said. “It will happen
— it will happen one day and then we’ll be lucky if we still have 50
percent of the asset values that we have today.”
—By CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt | r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 2 我同意楼上。唯一的相对安全之处就是中国。只有能生产的经济体才有价值，只会消费
的那是负价值。所谓美国经济的三分之二靠消费本身就是个笑话。 | f*******h
发帖数: 721 | 3 我不同意Marc Faber拿美国和欧洲类比。
欧洲传统上比美国福利好太多，而物质生产能力和资源却远不如美国，所以遇到财政问
题，当然要take比美国多很多的pain。光是把福利从现在的欧洲标准降到美国标准就足
以让欧洲人造反。
美国主要财政问题是Boomer的养老和医疗，而欧洲不但有boomer的问题，它还要养很多
北非中东的难民。美国虽然也有很多消耗福利的非法移民和穷人，但比起欧洲，规模是
小多了。而且墨西哥非法移民比北非和中东的难民勤劳得多。
欧洲之所以能过去60年在生产，技术创新和资源不如美国的情况下享受比美国好得多的
福利，是因为它在冷战中的重要位置而很多方面接受了美国的施舍，就像韩国日本在美
国的保护伞下，不需要太多军事投入。现在欧洲也和韩国日本一样，快没有利用价值了
，很快就得面对残酷现实。
我觉得美欧财政问题根本没法类比。美国最不济，还有军费可以砍，欧洲就只有砍福利
了。更不要说美国有一个强有力的中央政府，而欧洲是一群互相扯皮的散沙。
20
won
the
the
【在 a**i 的大作中提到】
: Marc Faber:Prepare for a Massive Market Meltdown
: Published: Tuesday, 13 Nov 2012 | 7:54 AM ET
: The markets are going to go into meltdown soon, so expect stocks to lose 20
: percent of their value, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom
: report told CNBC on Tuesday.
: “I don’t think markets are going down because of Greece, I don’t think
: markets are going down because of the ‘fiscal cliff’ — because there won
: ’t be a ‘fiscal cliff,’ ” Faber told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “The
: market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint, the
: global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the
| b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | | c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 5 they will not cut military spend otherwise how can they maintain world cop
position?
【在 f*******h 的大作中提到】
: 我不同意Marc Faber拿美国和欧洲类比。
: 欧洲传统上比美国福利好太多，而物质生产能力和资源却远不如美国，所以遇到财政问
: 题，当然要take比美国多很多的pain。光是把福利从现在的欧洲标准降到美国标准就足
: 以让欧洲人造反。
: 美国主要财政问题是Boomer的养老和医疗，而欧洲不但有boomer的问题，它还要养很多
: 北非中东的难民。美国虽然也有很多消耗福利的非法移民和穷人，但比起欧洲，规模是
: 小多了。而且墨西哥非法移民比北非和中东的难民勤劳得多。
: 欧洲之所以能过去60年在生产，技术创新和资源不如美国的情况下享受比美国好得多的
: 福利，是因为它在冷战中的重要位置而很多方面接受了美国的施舍，就像韩国日本在美
: 国的保护伞下，不需要太多军事投入。现在欧洲也和韩国日本一样，快没有利用价值了
| E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 6 我跟踪他的评论有很长时间了。基本上他说的预测到现在为止没有不对的。
不过，因为按照大牛的意见炒股是青蛙破产的主要原因之一，所以我对这样的评论还是
不敢上去操作。按照巴菲特的观点，如果你现在去short大盘，万一股市关门30年，你
的short position 30年后还不得亏废了。所以这种操作我不敢做。
20
won
the
the
【在 a**i 的大作中提到】
: Marc Faber:Prepare for a Massive Market Meltdown
: Published: Tuesday, 13 Nov 2012 | 7:54 AM ET
: The markets are going to go into meltdown soon, so expect stocks to lose 20
: percent of their value, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom
: report told CNBC on Tuesday.
: “I don’t think markets are going down because of Greece, I don’t think
: markets are going down because of the ‘fiscal cliff’ — because there won
: ’t be a ‘fiscal cliff,’ ” Faber told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “The
: market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint, the
: global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the
| s******e
发帖数: 696 | 7 我一个月以前就所有帐户全cash 了，包括401k, 只留了amzn short, znga long
20
won
the
the
【在 a**i 的大作中提到】
: Marc Faber:Prepare for a Massive Market Meltdown
: Published: Tuesday, 13 Nov 2012 | 7:54 AM ET
: The markets are going to go into meltdown soon, so expect stocks to lose 20
: percent of their value, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom
: report told CNBC on Tuesday.
: “I don’t think markets are going down because of Greece, I don’t think
: markets are going down because of the ‘fiscal cliff’ — because there won
: ’t be a ‘fiscal cliff,’ ” Faber told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “The
: market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint, the
: global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the
| l*****7
发帖数: 2844 | | E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 9 本青蛙也是这样。因为他说要跌20%，吓我一大跳。不敢不听。但是也不敢指望这个赚
钱。所以老老实实拿着cash观望。
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: 我一个月以前就所有帐户全cash 了，包括401k, 只留了amzn short, znga long
:
: 20
: won
: the
: the
| R******d
发帖数: 1108 | 10 至少都涵盖了
过去的3次20%的暴跌，marc farber预测到了180次。
★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.56 | E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 11 至少拿着cash不会亏。401K亏费了可不是开玩笑的。 | p*******n
发帖数: 2697 | 12 他老人家的预测都还算不错的，比大部分分析师好太多 |
|
