i**t
发帖数: 921 | 1 Several ID, including able101, who i think is a good trader, advocate to go
long on CAF last week. I had advise caution several times. I think the
reason behind is that many of them interpretate the 4/15 week long bottom
tail as a selling climax - a reversal signal. I beg the difference.
from the first glance, it has many reversal signs: spiking volume, touching
key support line etc. but remember it just came off recent sharp sell off,
Price just moved into lower BB area, haven't touch the lower BB yet. the
condition for selling climax don't exist. Volume is not dramatic either, It'
s more like a technical rebound after sell off. Time for reducing position.
not to increase. CAF is still settling down. the best scenario is it start
to taper off and retest prior low at 21.60 and make a double bottom there.
very like will touch and bounce off the 50wk line and lower BB around 21.20.
worst case is of course piecing 50wk if general market condition is bad, or
China's problem - bank regulation, slowing growth, H7N9 etc start to get
people more nervous.
as to the quasi FA specialist, i'll tell you this, it's true that price
rotate around value, but only half of the time it moves toward value, the
other half it's moving away from value - you never know which is which. |
i**t
发帖数: 921 | |
b******i
发帖数: 4776 | 3 A股今年没戏，几大指标股都刚做完头肩顶，起码要等2014年下半年
【在 i**t 的大作中提到】
: 图
|
m******c
发帖数: 2440 | |
i**t
发帖数: 921 | 5 华尔街日报：中国需要一场金融危机(图)
中国经济增长放缓引发了外界对其金融系统健康状况的担忧。在长期的繁荣后，中国内
地经济与1997年到1999年的金融危机之前的亚洲国家的确有了一些相似点。不过，它们
之间还有一个非常重要的区别，这个区别可以让中国免于金融危机，但也会让一些根本
性问题更加难以解决。Mitbbs.com
在亚洲金融危机中，韩国、泰国和印尼受到的打击尤其严重，其次是马来西亚。尽管这
些经济体之间差异很大，但却拥有一些共同的特点，这些特点让它们从世界银行(World
Bank)的标兵变成了国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的救助对象。
Mitbbs.com
在这三个国家的例子中，对效率低下的企业的大规模过度投资都持续了相当长的时间。
在韩国，过度投资主要发生在制造业，当时，韩国的财团竞相通过借贷扩大自己的帝国
。在泰国，房地产和制造业的过度投机（制造业的情形稍好一些）是罪魁祸首。在印度
尼西亚，急需的基础设施投资因为裙带主义的官僚体系而不堪重负。在马来西亚，大量
的资金被注入到有关系的企业。Mitbbs.com
同样，我们今天在中国看到，制造业的过度投资正导致回报不断下降，而且一些特权公
共项目并不考虑经济回报。至少在某些地区，将房地产作为投资工具的热潮已经导致住
房大量供应，而住房的价格又超出了普通人的购买能力。Mitbbs.com
====================
十大国企获巨额补贴 金额堪比创业板全部盈利
http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/20130502/013515323714.shtml
====================
A ponzi scheme can go on for a long time, as long as money in flow out pace
money out flow. but when there is a decrease of in flow, the problem can be
twice as bad, because the on the sign of decrease in flow, money out flow
will sharply increase - and the scheme will break. Im not saying China is a
scheme, but mechanism is similar. There are many problems they don't surface
when all is well, but the problems look twice as bad when it start to crack
. |
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 6 顶大夫的技术贴！
thanks for sharing! |
j*******i
发帖数: 1457 | 7 大夫 我等你发一篇你发自内心 喜欢的或者看空的股的分析 到那时候我再赞美你
分析CAF，没意思，因为是带有赌气性质的
go
touching
It'
.
start
【在 i**t 的大作中提到】
: Several ID, including able101, who i think is a good trader, advocate to go
: long on CAF last week. I had advise caution several times. I think the
: reason behind is that many of them interpretate the 4/15 week long bottom
: tail as a selling climax - a reversal signal. I beg the difference.
: from the first glance, it has many reversal signs: spiking volume, touching
: key support line etc. but remember it just came off recent sharp sell off,
: Price just moved into lower BB area, haven't touch the lower BB yet. the
: condition for selling climax don't exist. Volume is not dramatic either, It'
: s more like a technical rebound after sell off. Time for reducing position.
: not to increase. CAF is still settling down. the best scenario is it start
|
i**t
发帖数: 921 | 8 I don't really care you worship or bash me. as long as you stay away from PA
.
I have confidence in my way of investing, I also know there are many other
ways. but i'll point out the fake one if i see one.
【在 j*******i 的大作中提到】
: 大夫 我等你发一篇你发自内心 喜欢的或者看空的股的分析 到那时候我再赞美你
: 分析CAF，没意思，因为是带有赌气性质的
:
: go
: touching
:
: It'
: .
: start
|
j*******i
发帖数: 1457 | 9 当然 我当然知道 我对你的赞美 没有意义 也不值一文
我只是我把我的观点说出来，让其他人有个思考，不能看见所谓的分析就学习
要学习该学习
我尊敬你的理念
PA
【在 i**t 的大作中提到】
: I don't really care you worship or bash me. as long as you stay away from PA
: .
: I have confidence in my way of investing, I also know there are many other
: ways. but i'll point out the fake one if i see one.
|
m******c
发帖数: 2440 | 10 大家赶紧的赚钱吧，FB也好，SPWR也好，趁着其他人被打蒙的时候。 |
|
|
j*******i
发帖数: 1457 | 11 我都赚完钱了 才来灌水 昨晚赌博 欧洲降息 赢了 盘前就close了 看戏
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 大家赶紧的赚钱吧，FB也好，SPWR也好，趁着其他人被打蒙的时候。
|
D*****i
发帖数: 8922 | 12 那些亚洲国家当时最大的问题是外汇储备少，而且还缺乏资本管制，让国际资本为所欲
为。而香港当时靠着朱镕基拿2000亿美元家底作后盾，就把把索罗斯的菊花捅了。
现在天朝三万亿美元外汇储备，资本管制继续，国际资本搞不出什么幺蛾子。其他问题
，没有什么大不了的。
说来也许你不信，现在A股的市盈率是个位数。上一次A股市盈率到个位数，是什么时候
？是2006年初。当时三哥的股市刚过万点，市盈率16。我当时想，尼玛，没有道理比阿
三便宜啊，于是让家里人为我开了A股账户，两个月后又杀入美股。呵呵，运气不错。
World
【在 i**t 的大作中提到】
: 华尔街日报：中国需要一场金融危机(图)
: 中国经济增长放缓引发了外界对其金融系统健康状况的担忧。在长期的繁荣后，中国内
: 地经济与1997年到1999年的金融危机之前的亚洲国家的确有了一些相似点。不过，它们
: 之间还有一个非常重要的区别，这个区别可以让中国免于金融危机，但也会让一些根本
: 性问题更加难以解决。Mitbbs.com
: 在亚洲金融危机中，韩国、泰国和印尼受到的打击尤其严重，其次是马来西亚。尽管这
: 些经济体之间差异很大，但却拥有一些共同的特点，这些特点让它们从世界银行(World
: Bank)的标兵变成了国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的救助对象。
: Mitbbs.com
: 在这三个国家的例子中，对效率低下的企业的大规模过度投资都持续了相当长的时间。
|
m******c
发帖数: 2440 | 13 早起鸟儿有食吃啊，我们反应慢的希望能喝口汤
【在 j*******i 的大作中提到】
: 我都赚完钱了 才来灌水 昨晚赌博 欧洲降息 赢了 盘前就close了 看戏
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 14 CAF does not really have fundamental as we all know the ugly side of chinese
stock market. Thus we all follow the technical analysis. Your analysis is
reasonable but I do not agree 100%.
Several of us were trying to use the pricing difference between underlying
asset value vs trading value to predict the trend, which does not exist in
most of the stocks. CAF as a leading indicator for A share might not be 100%
correct but has solid reasons behind it and was validated many times
include the most recent run up last Dec.
When I entered last week at 22.68, I did not expect it to be the absolute
bottom. What I expected was the start of upward trend. If the premium
disappears or discount increases, I will definitely sell. But as far as I
see at this point, It is not clear either way, so I am holding now.
go
touching
It'
.
start
【在 i**t 的大作中提到】
: Several ID, including able101, who i think is a good trader, advocate to go
: long on CAF last week. I had advise caution several times. I think the
: reason behind is that many of them interpretate the 4/15 week long bottom
: tail as a selling climax - a reversal signal. I beg the difference.
: from the first glance, it has many reversal signs: spiking volume, touching
: key support line etc. but remember it just came off recent sharp sell off,
: Price just moved into lower BB area, haven't touch the lower BB yet. the
: condition for selling climax don't exist. Volume is not dramatic either, It'
: s more like a technical rebound after sell off. Time for reducing position.
: not to increase. CAF is still settling down. the best scenario is it start
|
x*****u
发帖数: 186 | 15 Thanks for all the great analysis!
One more thing: CAF may soon announce the capital gain distribution/dividend
for this year, which may boost its price a little. |
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 16 CAF discount all disappeared as of today. Premium exists now.
chinese
100%
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: CAF does not really have fundamental as we all know the ugly side of chinese
: stock market. Thus we all follow the technical analysis. Your analysis is
: reasonable but I do not agree 100%.
: Several of us were trying to use the pricing difference between underlying
: asset value vs trading value to predict the trend, which does not exist in
: most of the stocks. CAF as a leading indicator for A share might not be 100%
: correct but has solid reasons behind it and was validated many times
: include the most recent run up last Dec.
: When I entered last week at 22.68, I did not expect it to be the absolute
: bottom. What I expected was the start of upward trend. If the premium
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 17 well, come back to look at it, i was wrong that the late march low WAS
indeed a selling climax and it was tradable. the range was over 15%, right
at half of previous drop. but it was correct that it was a bear market
rebound. |
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 18 caf 现在破位了？
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: well, come back to look at it, i was wrong that the late march low WAS
: indeed a selling climax and it was tradable. the range was over 15%, right
: at half of previous drop. but it was correct that it was a bear market
: rebound.
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 19 it will be, MQP! LOL
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: caf 现在破位了？
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 20 大牛厉害！
4/15/2013是fib(61.8)retracement,成功反弹。昨天破位，今天继续。日线也破位
sma200以下。不妙。
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: it will be, MQP! LOL
|
|
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 21 CAF的TA分析意义不大（当然，我从来就没真的相信过严格意义上的TA）。
CAF交易量不大，大摩自己操盘，自己做庄。CAF对于MM的最大意义不在投资，而在对冲
。 |
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 22 意义就是赢了赌局，原帖的时候我说CAF到先25.22算我输，先到21.22算我赢， 当然人
家没赌， 可是CAF涨了几天不妨碍他一直在叫我错了。 挺烦的， 错了我会认， 赢了
那当然也会注明一下。 |
s*******t
发帖数: 335 | 23 在歪少这里，我看到了我想看到的东西
木鸡大牛说的挤泡泡是有道理，但如果幅度太大，政府也不会坐视不管吧
【在 D*****i 的大作中提到】
: 那些亚洲国家当时最大的问题是外汇储备少，而且还缺乏资本管制，让国际资本为所欲
: 为。而香港当时靠着朱镕基拿2000亿美元家底作后盾，就把把索罗斯的菊花捅了。
: 现在天朝三万亿美元外汇储备，资本管制继续，国际资本搞不出什么幺蛾子。其他问题
: ，没有什么大不了的。
: 说来也许你不信，现在A股的市盈率是个位数。上一次A股市盈率到个位数，是什么时候
: ？是2006年初。当时三哥的股市刚过万点，市盈率16。我当时想，尼玛，没有道理比阿
: 三便宜啊，于是让家里人为我开了A股账户，两个月后又杀入美股。呵呵，运气不错。
:
: World
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 24 到了21.22了？
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 意义就是赢了赌局，原帖的时候我说CAF到先25.22算我输，先到21.22算我赢， 当然人
: 家没赌， 可是CAF涨了几天不妨碍他一直在叫我错了。 挺烦的， 错了我会认， 赢了
: 那当然也会注明一下。
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 25 你赢了什麽赌局？我看你是输了以后，一致耿耿于怀。CAF都到25差几分了，现在说21.
22你还算什么，而且我也没跟你“赌”？我这一个多月从来不到你的帖子里跟你说任何
东西，前段时间你自己看着CAF涨挺烦，是不是？现在跌下来，终于扬眉吐气了？
你自己很多做法前后不一致，我不会去找茬。你也不要到处说些贬低人的，低调忍着点
，就那么难？
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 意义就是赢了赌局，原帖的时候我说CAF到先25.22算我输，先到21.22算我赢， 当然人
: 家没赌， 可是CAF涨了几天不妨碍他一直在叫我错了。 挺烦的， 错了我会认， 赢了
: 那当然也会注明一下。
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | |
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 27 20.91now, the tricky part is sense it before it happens:-)
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: 到了21.22了？
|
D*****i
发帖数: 8922 | 28 蒙古大夫也太不淡定了吧。这个帖子发在May 2 早上，May 1的收盘价是22.34。之后
May 20收盘到了24.93，进水超过10%，这个MQP不算很成功吧？如果换一个不厚道的对
手，早把这个帖子顶出来鞭尸十回八回了。 |
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 29 没看到这里有个回帖。
我的贴子说的是五月的反弹是REBOUND, not a reverse. That is the point.
meaning CAF will go down to March low before it heads back to year high. to
set it in number, i gave 25.22 and 21.22 on the day it closed at 23.22. it
didn't touch 25.22 even though it got close.
YES I DID ACKNOWLEDGE THAT IT WAS A TRADE-ABLE REBOUND IN MY EARLIER POST,
MEANING YOU KNOW HOW TO EXIT. but the range will be so small - a 12% rebound
from 22 to 25, you will be exceptionally good to get 6%. Just ask able101,
who i think is straight forward and honest, how much he had gained from CAF?
【在 D*****i 的大作中提到】
: 蒙古大夫也太不淡定了吧。这个帖子发在May 2 早上，May 1的收盘价是22.34。之后
: May 20收盘到了24.93，进水超过10%，这个MQP不算很成功吧？如果换一个不厚道的对
: 手，早把这个帖子顶出来鞭尸十回八回了。
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 30 I have been nice, and never tried to laugh at him for his mistakes.
But this person always tried to find excuse.
【在 D*****i 的大作中提到】
: 蒙古大夫也太不淡定了吧。这个帖子发在May 2 早上，May 1的收盘价是22.34。之后
: May 20收盘到了24.93，进水超过10%，这个MQP不算很成功吧？如果换一个不厚道的对
: 手，早把这个帖子顶出来鞭尸十回八回了。
|
|
|
a*****e
发帖数: 16445 | 31 你也进去
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: I have been nice, and never tried to laugh at him for his mistakes.
: But this person always tried to find excuse.
|
i**t
发帖数: 921 | 32 你以为那25.22是随便说的？ 差几分就是差几分， 赢了再来说赢了， 输了就TM认输，
神人为什么就非得次次马后挣钱？
21.
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: 你赢了什麽赌局？我看你是输了以后，一致耿耿于怀。CAF都到25差几分了，现在说21.
: 22你还算什么，而且我也没跟你“赌”？我这一个多月从来不到你的帖子里跟你说任何
: 东西，前段时间你自己看着CAF涨挺烦，是不是？现在跌下来，终于扬眉吐气了？
: 你自己很多做法前后不一致，我不会去找茬。你也不要到处说些贬低人的，低调忍着点
: ，就那么难？
|
