g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 1 潜水很多年了。一直奇怪这个版上很少做FA的。或者也许有，但是和我一样潜水。
贴个special situation idea，希望能炸出几个同行。goes without saying that
this is not a recommendation. do your own DD.
Crown Media (CRWN) is an orphan stock with no sell-side coverage. The asset
here is Hallmark Channel, one of the remaining stand-alone cable channels
with decent ratings. The company had steady growth and generated $135M
EBITDA last year despite low affiliate fees given its independent status.
Stock is reasonably cheap on its own and clearly worth a lot more to a media
conglomerate which can eliminate G&A and get better affiliate fees in a
bundle package.
The story got more interesting and actionable after the controlling family (
with 90% stake) signaled in a 13D filing last month that they are looking to
monetize the asset (ie. sell the company). Essentially I see two scenarios
for minority shareholders. 1) The family buys out minority shareholders at $
3-3.5 (12-14x EBITDA using their own valuation metric from 3 years ago). 2)
The entire company gets sold in early 2014, probably for $3.50-4 (still
lower than recent comparable transactions). Minority shareholders are
entitled to an extra 50c premium in case of takeover per the recap agreement
in '09, which will expire at end of 2013, so any acquirer may wait till
early '14. Either way there is decent upside from here, independent of the
general market. Downside should be limited given $80m normalized FCF. Risk
is somehow the family screws minority shareholders in a low-ball short-form
merger, but that appears very unlikely given their prior record and
potential gains on 10% of shares are too low for the family to risk the deal
falling through from lawsuits -- 50c premium would be just $20m, or one
quarter of FCF. |
m********o
发帖数: 2088 | 2 As you said, there is a low-ball risk. Michael Dell is doing the exact thing
to DELL's shareholders. An easy money is more valuable than reputation. |
g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 3 there is some critical difference here.
in Dell's case, MD owns just over 20% of the stock, so he has every
incentive to screw public shareholders since the stake/upside is huge for
himself. Also I am not convinced DELL is worth a lot more than his bid, and
the stock was trading well above the bid.
in CRWN's case, as I explained, the upside is significant so there is enough
pie for everybody. The family already owns 90% of stock. if you were in
their shoes, would you pay a reasonable premium (on just 10% of the shares,
so absolute $ is not much, 20% premium is only one quarter of FCF) and get
the deal quickly done, or would you put in a low ball offer to save maybe $
10m but risk lawsuits from minority shareholders and dragging out the
process? to me, this is a no brainer choice for the family.
Also, the family had shown some incredible nice gesture to minority
shareholders in '09 and '10. In '09 CRWN was heavily leveraged and they had
to do a recap where the family voluntarily exchanged their debt into equity.
They could very well choose to wipe out equity holders then, but for some
reason they left equity holders unscathed. Then they did the same thing
again when they redeemed their high interest preferred. |
m********o
发帖数: 2088 | |
p****p
发帖数: 3360 | 5 Great post. Thanks! I'd like to do FA but am not familiar with it. :-)
To those who like long term investment, this may be a good candidate. But
what's the size of its target market and their potential growth in the
market down the road?
asset
media
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】
: 潜水很多年了。一直奇怪这个版上很少做FA的。或者也许有，但是和我一样潜水。
: 贴个special situation idea，希望能炸出几个同行。goes without saying that
: this is not a recommendation. do your own DD.
: Crown Media (CRWN) is an orphan stock with no sell-side coverage. The asset
: here is Hallmark Channel, one of the remaining stand-alone cable channels
: with decent ratings. The company had steady growth and generated $135M
: EBITDA last year despite low affiliate fees given its independent status.
: Stock is reasonably cheap on its own and clearly worth a lot more to a media
: conglomerate which can eliminate G&A and get better affiliate fees in a
: bundle package.
|
H******9
发帖数: 8087 | 6 Good analysis
asset
media
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】
: 潜水很多年了。一直奇怪这个版上很少做FA的。或者也许有，但是和我一样潜水。
: 贴个special situation idea，希望能炸出几个同行。goes without saying that
: this is not a recommendation. do your own DD.
: Crown Media (CRWN) is an orphan stock with no sell-side coverage. The asset
: here is Hallmark Channel, one of the remaining stand-alone cable channels
: with decent ratings. The company had steady growth and generated $135M
: EBITDA last year despite low affiliate fees given its independent status.
: Stock is reasonably cheap on its own and clearly worth a lot more to a media
: conglomerate which can eliminate G&A and get better affiliate fees in a
: bundle package.
|
O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 7 为一个股价2.50，交易量250T的股票, 做一个2500字的FA分析
还是很符合股版的定位的，值得mark。 |
g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 8 盘面小，能避开风险赚到钱就是王道。Buffett头几年买的都是一堆10m market cap以
下的东西。我没兴趣每天压大压小/赌tsla之类的东西。
【在 O****L 的大作中提到】
: 为一个股价2.50，交易量250T的股票, 做一个2500字的FA分析
: 还是很符合股版的定位的，值得mark。
|
O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 9 你说的是Buffett在1950年代的事？
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】
: 盘面小，能避开风险赚到钱就是王道。Buffett头几年买的都是一堆10m market cap以
: 下的东西。我没兴趣每天压大压小/赌tsla之类的东西。
|
g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 10 嗯。有兴趣的朋友可以找到他55-69年partnership letter。与他现在的style截然不同
，其实更值得我们这样的虾米学习模仿。
他的第一桶金Sanborn Map估计market cap 连5M都不到。他自己控股liquidate了。 |
O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 11 关键词是： 1955， 第一桶，5M， 自己控股。
想模仿巴菲特的id们看清楚了。
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】
: 嗯。有兴趣的朋友可以找到他55-69年partnership letter。与他现在的style截然不同
: ，其实更值得我们这样的虾米学习模仿。
: 他的第一桶金Sanborn Map估计market cap 连5M都不到。他自己控股liquidate了。
|
O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 12 如果看得再多点，再仔细一点，
就会发现想成为巴菲特的关键条件是做直系的官富二代，嫁娶挂靠的那种都不行。
【在 O****L 的大作中提到】
: 关键词是： 1955， 第一桶，5M， 自己控股。
: 想模仿巴菲特的id们看清楚了。
|
D*********t
发帖数: 5748 | 13 what the heck!
everybody said oiloil is a MJ of Laosong...
【在 O****L 的大作中提到】
: 如果看得再多点，再仔细一点，
: 就会发现想成为巴菲特的关键条件是做直系的官富二代，嫁娶挂靠的那种都不行。
|
