i****6
发帖数: 14 | 1 http://seekingalpha.com/user/19381241/instablog
初来乍到，大家多多指教
Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. develops residential real estate properties
for middle-income consumers, primarily focusing on selected Tier II cities
in China. We followed this company for sometime because of its low PE and
dividend. Recently two questions came up about XIN.
First, how many shares does it have and how severe have its earning drops
been?
On Nov. 3, 2013, the earning report of the third quarter of 2013 states that
the company used 73.5 million shares to compute earning per share for its
profit of $28.7 million, so its earning per share is $0.39. The problem is
when the private equity firm TPG invested in XIN, it gets 19% of the company
through 18.6 million shares (ADR). Dividing 18.6 million by .19 gives you
98 million shares, which is also shown on the Bloomberg web site. So its
third quarter earned only $0.29 per share instead of $0.39 as they reported.
It is a 34% drop from its third quarter 2012 earning of $0.44 per share
instead of 11%.
The company forecasts the fourth quarter of earning to be $20 to $30 million
. With 98 million shares, it will earn $0.20 to $0.30 per share. Using mid
point of $0.25 per share, its earnings will drop 46% from their forth
quarter of 2012 of $0.47. The amazing thing is that for a NYSE listed
company, they can not count correctly how many shares they have.
Second, is the sequence of events in XIN a coincidence?
8/26/2013 TPG announces its investment of $108 million
9/11/2013 Kevin Wei appointed as CFO
9/19/2013 TPG placement closed
10/1/2013 XIN announced split its CEO and Chairman positions
11/1/2013 XIN registered to sell TPG share (F-3 filing)
11/14/2013 CFO Kevin Wei resigned
11/15/2013 Sell TPG share in effect (from SEC)
You can make your own conclusion from those of events.
Recently XIN issued a $200 million bond at 13.25% and a $200 million bond at
13%, each with a highly speculative credit rating of B+, to buy land. What
happens to the money it made during the recent China real estate boom? With
interest expense of $13 million per quarter and its deteriorating earnings,
XIN could possibly lose money during some quarters in 2014. If that happens,
its share price will be adjusted downward and its dividend will be in
trouble. | l*****l
发帖数: 4170 | 2 md，难怪我觉得seekingalpha的东西都很不靠谱呢。 | i****6
发帖数: 14 | 3 愿听高见
【在 l*****l 的大作中提到】
: md，难怪我觉得seekingalpha的东西都很不靠谱呢。
| x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 4 厉害。。。挺深入，也很客观。不知道有没有XIN每个项目的深入分析 | B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 5 我过去两年跟踪了XIN所有项目的买卖情况。但是近半年没有太多研究，因为我已经不
再持有了。
【在 x***n 的大作中提到】
: 厉害。。。挺深入，也很客观。不知道有没有XIN每个项目的深入分析
| B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 6 最被低估的太阳能股票，而且很安全。放心买并持有，2014会辉煌 | o******l
发帖数: 3125 | | D******g
发帖数: 289 | 8 查了一下 ＸＩＮ。
短期将波动于4.97和5.59间。 | r*****t
发帖数: 7278 | | R******o
发帖数: 1572 | 10 就是没有股票树木的问题
光国内二线城市房市崩盘的问题就够他们喝一壶
目前国内郑州济南长沙这种的二线和部分三线城市空房率已经吓死人 房价每周
自动降一万
that
【在 i****6 的大作中提到】
: http://seekingalpha.com/user/19381241/instablog
: 初来乍到，大家多多指教
: Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. develops residential real estate properties
: for middle-income consumers, primarily focusing on selected Tier II cities
: in China. We followed this company for sometime because of its low PE and
: dividend. Recently two questions came up about XIN.
: First, how many shares does it have and how severe have its earning drops
: been?
: On Nov. 3, 2013, the earning report of the third quarter of 2013 states that
: the company used 73.5 million shares to compute earning per share for its
| r***k
发帖数: 13586 | 11 空房率不说明问题，因为国内房价不是靠房租支持，只要钞票乱印，那些印出来的钞票
只好买房。
【在 R******o 的大作中提到】
: 就是没有股票树木的问题
: 光国内二线城市房市崩盘的问题就够他们喝一壶
: 目前国内郑州济南长沙这种的二线和部分三线城市空房率已经吓死人 房价每周
: 自动降一万
:
: that
|
|
