f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 1 Several years ago, I traded a lot of GOOG options on OE days based on Option
Pain theory. The result was not good since the MM have too many degrees of
freedom on OE days.
The post by ID NFLX was truly good and I decided to try OE play again on
August 29, 2014.
Being in California is a bad drawback since you have to get up around 5:30
AM to figure out the situation.
Last night, I studied several candidates.
1. GPRO: it jumped from 45 to 49.5 on Thursday, Aug 28, 2014. It is clear
the MM wants to move it up. GPRO was a hot discussion topic on MITBBS.
2. SPLK: it reported a very good earnings after market close on Thursday,
Aug 28, 2014. On Friday morning, it was on the headlines of market watch.com
. I checked past 6 month history of SPLK, and it looks like SPLK's moving
range could be big in one day.
3. TWTR: it was reported that TWTR was moving up. When checked this morning,
I found TWTR moves about $1.5 on previous 3 days, so the range is small
compared to SPLK.
4. TSLA: on Firday morning, TSLA had big good news. But studying the past
history shows that TSLA turned to jump at the market open and remain
basically flat in the trading day.
I also looked at BIG LOTS, which had ER on Friday morning. But its ER was
not too good.
On Friday morning, the consumer spending news was not good, so I felt that
market may not jump up much.
I wanted to trade 3 stocks, due to limited attentions that I can pay.
Finally, before the market open, I made the choice of narrowing it down to 2
stocks.
The first choice is SPLK, and the second is GPRO.
Since this is an initial try play, I want to play small, and have $300
budget on each stock (later I violated this rule too much).
Before the market open, I input all the option tickers into my broker
account, and ready to go 10 minutes before 6:30AM PST. |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 2 In the past, i had terrible experience buying calls with market order at the
open on OE days.
Mr. NFLX also suggested IV is high at the open.
All experience points to 7:00AM ~ 7:30Am PST is the best buying window.
GPRO opened at 49.47 and SPLK opened at 48.72.
Both were rapidly going up after 6:30AM PST.
I was panic and first bought $417 of GPPRO $52 call at 50 cents at 6:41AM (
the time is PST, and I will not write PST in the rest emails).
Due to my unfamiliarity of the streaming window, i later found out I bought
the GPRO 52 call twice! and the second order by mistake cost me another $338
.
So the rule on money limit was greatly violated on GPRO.
At 6:46, I bought $254 of SPLK $52 call at 40 cents.
At 6:49, I bought $297 of SPLK 53 calls at 35 cents.
The situation on GPRO looked bad.
GPRO dropped below $51 and getting really close to $50.20 something around 7
:15 AM.
The bid price for my GPRO calls, which heavily bought, was ZERO!
Panic, Panic, and Panic
At 7:17Am, I bought $419 GPRO $51 calls at 40 cents hoping to recover my
losses on GPRO.
Now I have exceeded my planed limit 3 times and have almost $1200 on GPRO
calls! And it looks like they are going to be all dead.
*&*^%!
|
l********i
发帖数: 2503 | 3 这种风险太大，你买点稍微远一点的，最多少赚点或不赚，不至于这么紧张，没必要。
有时候价格走向不是你能预测到的 |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 4 The situation looked better on SPLK side,
but I only had slightly over $500 on it.
So $500 on SPLK (looking OK) and $1200 on GPRO (looking all dead).
SPLK first climbed over $52, getting close to $53,
then it pulled back and moved around $52.
Since the picture on GPRO made me feel bad, and around 8:00 AMI decided to
go outside for a breakfast, and stay away from screen.
Durng the breakfast, SPLK past 53 and getting over to $54.
Should I sell portion of SPLK calls and get my original investment back
first?
I should do so from risk management perspect.
And I am losing $1200 on GPRO calls!
|
G*****u
发帖数: 1222 | 5 还是赚了不少，出在高点的话有六七倍吧。gpro就算赔光了也行 |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 6 My thinking at the end of the breakfast:
1. it looks like SPLK can go up a lot, by looking at 6 month chart, it looks
like something like $58 or $60 is also possible.
I bought SPLK $52 call at $0.40
I had SPLK $53 call at $0.35.
If SPLK is 58 at the end of day, then, I will be hitting gold.
On GPRO, it looks like the stock will flirting around $51 all the day.
I felt it is better to get some money back (hopefully, it would go back to
something like $51.80). and forget about it.
GPRO is not going up like crazy as I wished!
So, keep SPLK calls (maybe sell some to get the original money back) to the
end of the day.
And dump the GPRO calls as soon as I can recover 70% of my $1200!
So that is my plan at 9:10AM PST, |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 7 My past experience is that normally, I should clear out losers by 10:00AM
PST, or the calls would be zero.
The sucker GPRO started to go above $51 and getting back to 51.54 around 9:
46AM.
I have set limited order to sell the GPRO 51 call at 85 cents, but changed
it to $1.00 when GPRO goes to $51.65. the bid on it is 0.65 and the last
trade was 80 cents.
The question is should I wait GPRO going higher more, or dump it all and
forget about it?
on the SPLK side, the price is now going under $54!
So one side is bright and one side is dark.
Sure, on OE day, you need to play at least two stocks, maybe three, so you
could aviod losing every money put out on Friday (and ithat happened a lot
when I was fighting GOOG MM in the past).
Good. GPRO is now $51.61.
I think that I should get rid of GPRO calls and leave the 52 calls to zero. |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 8 Sold all GPRO 52 call at 15 cents (it looks like GPRO will move around 51.4
for the rest of the day, selling at 15 cent is better than leaving it at
zero)
bought at 50 and 54 cents,
So I created 4x for others :(((
Lost about $550 on GPRO $52 call. |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 9 Wasted all the time on GPRO, now SPLK is below $54.
The question at 11:00Am.
Should I sell some and recover my cost first?
or should I wait to the end hoping SPLK going back to $55?
It makes big difference for me.
And why is SPLK wondering around 53.7? |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 10 Do not want to wait to the market close.
at 12:24PST,
Sold SPLK 52 call at $2.05, finally made a 5X after offering many 10X to
other people.
Sold SPLK 53 call at $1.10, finally a 3X after offering many 10X to other
people.
On SPLK, made $1526.95 out of $551.5
Lost about $400 on GPRO,
Overall, made about $1,100 after putting almost $1700 at risk.
Conisdered luck after catching SPLK. |
|
|
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 11 Story for other two stocks:
TSLA, opened at 268.70, the peak was 272, closing around 270.
very difficult to make any money.
TWTR, opened at 49.89 and closing 49.66. Surely to lose money no matter how
skilled you are.
I saved my ass a lot on GPRO by buying 51 call at the lowest point, with a
lot of panic, and still losing $400.
Lessons learned,
1. Must find good stocks which could have strong climbing potential on OE
day.
THIS IS A MATTER OF LUCK and IT IS VERY HARD.
2. Must invest in more than one stocks. otherwise, could end up losing all
and have a really bad Friday. And you could lose money on all of them.
3. Invest equal amount in each stock so will still make money if one the
stock hits the gold (today, i had $1200 on the loser and $500 on the winner)
4. Cannot handle more than 3 stocks since each stock demands a lot of
attention.
4. Cut the losers out before 10:00AM PST if the situation is different from
what you think.
5. Pick a liquid option to avoid wide bid and ask spread.
6. Clear everything out before 12:30 PST.
The key is to pick up a strong stock that could climb a lot on OE day.
Do not play if there is no confidence of having such as stock.
Great Thanks to Mr. NFLX for showing the most valuable secret of OE play,
which led to profit for me on an OE day. |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 12 SPLK chart of August 29, 2014. |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 13 GPRO chart of August 29, 2014. |
d**********0
发帖数: 13081 | 14 当你在中午开始发贴的时候， 已经立于不败之地了。 所以能够这么 shit shit 一
篇又一篇。
下次， 最好买的时候发贴， 看你还能不能这样。 |
d**********0
发帖数: 13081 | 15 随便拉一条出来批斗。
不懂得周５的规律， 最好不要shit shit.. 对于一些股票， 收盘时的最后半小时
， 是golden time.
【在 f*****f 的大作中提到】
: GPRO chart of August 29, 2014.
|
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 16 The MHP answer key,
Top stocks that moved up on August 29, 2014.
Looking back, it is VERY HARD to catch the one that climbs up on OE day! |
d**********0
发帖数: 13081 | 17 我知道你是谁， 你也知道俺是谁。
还是一句老话。 想增加credit来拉生意， 就实实在在的摆出实盘。
这些shit 还是收回好了。
【在 f*****f 的大作中提到】
: The MHP answer key,
: Top stocks that moved up on August 29, 2014.
: Looking back, it is VERY HARD to catch the one that climbs up on OE day!
|
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 18 Mr. Dingding,
I do not care who you are,
But I would deeply appreciate it if you could leave this record clean.
Wish you a nice weekend! |
n**x
发帖数: 606 | 19 Congrats on your gain! Very interesting thinking! I made only 2x on SPLK and
0.5x on TSLA. But I can't talk "shit" here today because I lost all my gain
on TWTR, which I didn't follow the OE day strategy I talked about. Don't
care about what others say. Think about this, you put $300 on both, then
even one became 0 you still have 3x+ gain on other, which will make yo
profitable at the end. You just have to be disciplined and strictly follow
your rule. some people just don't understand this simple math.
Congrats again! I don't know why people don't like see other people making $
$$. hehe. |
d**********0
发帖数: 13081 | 20
象你这样的帖子， 看起来很文雅啊， 俺读了怎么却是起鸡皮疙瘩， 浑身不舒服？
大丈夫行的正，就不要躲躲闪闪，遮遮掩掩。 一个马甲被骂臭了， 就换一个重新来
， 换个话题继续shit shit. 你以为这样能拉到生意？
【在 f*****f 的大作中提到】
: Mr. Dingding,
: I do not care who you are,
: But I would deeply appreciate it if you could leave this record clean.
: Wish you a nice weekend!
|
|
|
l*********m
发帖数: 16971 | 21 挺好的经验。
不过，这几个股票还是提前一天介入赚得多，当然提前就更加难以判断了 |
d**********0
发帖数: 13081 | 22 俺本来以为这一位是你。 接下来的几个帖子， 才发现不是。
你的options 周５经验当然比这一位好得多。 上周５俺攻击你的帖子， 只不过是因
为你只检好的说。 青蛙读了， 当然以为options 这么好弄， 大干快上， 只有死
的更快。
这一位，却是完全不同。 他的目的是吸引眼球拉生意， 在乎的是青蛙口袋里面的钱
。 上次被人骂了， 就换个马甲重新来。
and
gain
$
【在 n**x 的大作中提到】
: Congrats on your gain! Very interesting thinking! I made only 2x on SPLK and
: 0.5x on TSLA. But I can't talk "shit" here today because I lost all my gain
: on TWTR, which I didn't follow the OE day strategy I talked about. Don't
: care about what others say. Think about this, you put $300 on both, then
: even one became 0 you still have 3x+ gain on other, which will make yo
: profitable at the end. You just have to be disciplined and strictly follow
: your rule. some people just don't understand this simple math.
: Congrats again! I don't know why people don't like see other people making $
: $$. hehe.
|
n**x
发帖数: 606 | 23 理解，我也只想分享一下经验。 炒option学费不会少交的， 我从一开始也反复警告。
。。
【在 d**********0 的大作中提到】
: 俺本来以为这一位是你。 接下来的几个帖子， 才发现不是。
: 你的options 周５经验当然比这一位好得多。 上周５俺攻击你的帖子， 只不过是因
: 为你只检好的说。 青蛙读了， 当然以为options 这么好弄， 大干快上， 只有死
: 的更快。
: 这一位，却是完全不同。 他的目的是吸引眼球拉生意， 在乎的是青蛙口袋里面的钱
: 。 上次被人骂了， 就换个马甲重新来。
:
: and
: gain
: $
|
w**k
发帖数: 6722 | 24 楼主这位看着象optionoption，只不过还没有把大力丸子拿出来而已
【在 d**********0 的大作中提到】
: 俺本来以为这一位是你。 接下来的几个帖子， 才发现不是。
: 你的options 周５经验当然比这一位好得多。 上周５俺攻击你的帖子， 只不过是因
: 为你只检好的说。 青蛙读了， 当然以为options 这么好弄， 大干快上， 只有死
: 的更快。
: 这一位，却是完全不同。 他的目的是吸引眼球拉生意， 在乎的是青蛙口袋里面的钱
: 。 上次被人骂了， 就换个马甲重新来。
:
: and
: gain
: $
|
G*****u
发帖数: 1222 | 25 怪不得我觉得行文风格眼熟 p
【在 w**k 的大作中提到】
: 楼主这位看着象optionoption，只不过还没有把大力丸子拿出来而已
|
d**********0
发帖数: 13081 | 26 本来大家心照不宣， 俺点出来一下， 自己顾着颜面，收敛点就好了。
那知道还在那里拿腔装调。 真是不知好歹的东西。
【在 G*****u 的大作中提到】
: 怪不得我觉得行文风格眼熟 p
|
G*****u
发帖数: 1222 | 27 看到他一开始说option pain就觉得奇怪
他要真有水平何必搞个网站招摇撞骗 自己炒期权就够赚的
【在 d**********0 的大作中提到】
: 本来大家心照不宣， 俺点出来一下， 自己顾着颜面，收敛点就好了。
: 那知道还在那里拿腔装调。 真是不知好歹的东西。
|
c**********t
发帖数: 215 | 28 Option trading应该是比较有技巧的交易策略，怎么到了MITBBS就变成赌博了呢？ |
d**********0
发帖数: 13081 | 29
options 的运用， 归根结底是在于underline 的运动。 根据underline 的预测，设
计相应的策略。
但在技巧上， 在OE, 的一天里面， 有着非常规用法。 这些东西， 就不是书本上
的知识了。
【在 c**********t 的大作中提到】
: Option trading应该是比较有技巧的交易策略，怎么到了MITBBS就变成赌博了呢？
|
c**********t
发帖数: 215 | 30 可是我从楼主的帖子里，看不到多少技巧，文章展现更多的倒是一个开始输红了眼但最
后侥幸翻盘的赌徒的样子。 |
|
|
G*****u
发帖数: 1222 | 31 看看这个
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/35746995.html
【在 c**********t 的大作中提到】
: 可是我从楼主的帖子里，看不到多少技巧，文章展现更多的倒是一个开始输红了眼但最
: 后侥幸翻盘的赌徒的样子。
|
c**********t
发帖数: 215 | 32 赌博么，输赢不是很正常。这个帖子的作者上面不还在说这周五TWTR就赔光了赌在SPLK
和TSLA的赢注？
这样到期日的Option交易，感觉就好像每周五到杂货店去买个彩票一样，不可持续。
我觉得如果真的要教别人如此炒期权，应该把每周的输赢情况都列出来，比如YTD的交
易情况。要不然光挑赌赢的那天说事，误导别人好像3倍10倍的回报很容易，感觉有些
不妥。
【在 G*****u 的大作中提到】
: 看看这个
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/35746995.html
|
G*****u
发帖数: 1222 | 33 我觉得决定做期权的人都意识到风险了吧。了解别人怎么去赢的经验会很有帮助。应该
没人会傻到以为每天都能翻几倍
SPLK
【在 c**********t 的大作中提到】
: 赌博么，输赢不是很正常。这个帖子的作者上面不还在说这周五TWTR就赔光了赌在SPLK
: 和TSLA的赢注？
: 这样到期日的Option交易，感觉就好像每周五到杂货店去买个彩票一样，不可持续。
: 我觉得如果真的要教别人如此炒期权，应该把每周的输赢情况都列出来，比如YTD的交
: 易情况。要不然光挑赌赢的那天说事，误导别人好像3倍10倍的回报很容易，感觉有些
: 不妥。
|
w********2
发帖数: 16371 | 34 avoid trading on Friday is a golden rule I learnt when I trade options in
the past years. I learnt that in a bloody expensive way.
At least please don't try to encourage others to trade weekly
especially on Friday if you can't help yourself doing so. |
d*****g
发帖数: 978 | 35 青蛙说说想法吧， 不应该打压这种思路，如果连这种策略优劣势都看不出来的人，应
该在炒option 之前就被wiped 了， 这只是一种思路，有些人可以，也愿意这样做，能
够挣钱。他愿意把自己的杀手锏拿出来分享是好事，至于你能不能也做到，就不是人家
的事了。作为新手，我是不可能尝试这种策略的，超短线的时间投入，回报，和风险太
难控制。但对于熟悉的股票，恰当的时间，不失为一个方便的盈利方法。也许现在不会
用到，但有一天可能你也会能用这招赚大钱 |
f*****f
发帖数: 29 | 36 I would like to review my execution on the trading:
First, on stock picking. SPLK and GPRO were basically the top 2 stocks, in
terms of moving up, on Aug 29, 2014. But GPRO jumped up at the open, then
remained horizontal with fluctuation. Looking back, the best way was to
trade
SPLK alone. But without seeing the charts in advance, my picking of SPLK and
GPRO was
correct and with considerably good luck. I would put a score of 90 on it.
Secondly, the loss prevention in GPRO was done in the correct way. $52 calls
were doomed to be dead at the beginning. The call options were sold around
10:00AM PST and recovered about 30% back. This was based on many years' of
loss experience. The selling of $52 call was correct. The buying of $51 call
at the lowest point of GPRO
was decided with additional money, bought around 40 cents, and sold around
80 cents. It recovered significant loss on GPRO. The part that I did well on
Aug 29 was the part of getting out of the doomed GPRO, and my initial
mistake of
buying 52 call twice. On GPRO execution, I would put a score of 95 on it.
Thirdly, SPLK had almost perfect price chart for OE trading. It was nothing
but going up. But
the best timing to sell was around 9:30PST. Near the end the stock was
getting back, and it could totally come back to the beginning price. The
trading profit could totally go away. Some
risk management, by selling a small portion and take back the initial cost,
should have done around 9:30PST. On SPLK execution, I would put a score of
75 on it.
Overall, I had a really good luck on picking the right stocks, and did the
mostly correct thing getting out of the doomed GPRO. It could be difficult
for me to repeat this again, and losing all your money on the table should
be a normal result for anyone starting to play this lottery game. |
