a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 1 在油价85时，一切照旧，CapEX加分红正好够。
油价80，要去掉分红，CapEX才够。或者CapEX减少。
现在看来油价会在78到85之间，会有问题，但生存是可以的。
Q3平均90,还能挣一点. Q4是要亏钱的，Asset Sale很重要。
Rim 是对的，5刀以下可以建仓。 |
i********y
发帖数: 346 | 2 问题是油价78到85这个预测本身就有不确定性。。既然现在美元指数整体强势，很难看
到美元指数会有持续走弱的因素，油价底很难预料。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 在油价85时，一切照旧，CapEX加分红正好够。
: 油价80，要去掉分红，CapEX才够。或者CapEX减少。
: 现在看来油价会在78到85之间，会有问题，但生存是可以的。
: Q3平均90,还能挣一点. Q4是要亏钱的，Asset Sale很重要。
: Rim 是对的，5刀以下可以建仓。
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 3 你说多少？
确定还能叫股市？ 78-85的空间已经不错了。
【在 i********y 的大作中提到】
: 问题是油价78到85这个预测本身就有不确定性。。既然现在美元指数整体强势，很难看
: 到美元指数会有持续走弱的因素，油价底很难预料。
|
i********y
发帖数: 346 | 4 这个我同意，如果判断油价基本见底，risk/reward角度来讲是一个可以参考的选择。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 你说多少？
: 确定还能叫股市？ 78-85的空间已经不错了。
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 5 我靠，昨天刚吼。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 在油价85时，一切照旧，CapEX加分红正好够。
: 油价80，要去掉分红，CapEX才够。或者CapEX减少。
: 现在看来油价会在78到85之间，会有问题，但生存是可以的。
: Q3平均90,还能挣一点. Q4是要亏钱的，Asset Sale很重要。
: Rim 是对的，5刀以下可以建仓。
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 6 今天涨是因为卖掉5%的资产卖了335M，按这个算法，总资产值6B， 呵呵 |
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 7 你准备长期持有？
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: 今天涨是因为卖掉5%的资产卖了335M，按这个算法，总资产值6B， 呵呵
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 8 没计划，我满意了就走，不满意就继续捂着。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 你准备长期持有？
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 9 在油价85时，一切照旧，CapEX加分红正好够。
油价80，要去掉分红，CapEX才够。或者CapEX减少。
现在看来油价会在78到85之间，会有问题，但生存是可以的。
Q3平均90,还能挣一点. Q4是要亏钱的，Asset Sale很重要。
Rim 是对的，5刀以下可以建仓。 |
i********y
发帖数: 346 | 10 问题是油价78到85这个预测本身就有不确定性。。既然现在美元指数整体强势，很难看
到美元指数会有持续走弱的因素，油价底很难预料。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 在油价85时，一切照旧，CapEX加分红正好够。
: 油价80，要去掉分红，CapEX才够。或者CapEX减少。
: 现在看来油价会在78到85之间，会有问题，但生存是可以的。
: Q3平均90,还能挣一点. Q4是要亏钱的，Asset Sale很重要。
: Rim 是对的，5刀以下可以建仓。
|
|
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 11 你说多少？
确定还能叫股市？ 78-85的空间已经不错了。
【在 i********y 的大作中提到】
: 问题是油价78到85这个预测本身就有不确定性。。既然现在美元指数整体强势，很难看
: 到美元指数会有持续走弱的因素，油价底很难预料。
|
i********y
发帖数: 346 | 12 这个我同意，如果判断油价基本见底，risk/reward角度来讲是一个可以参考的选择。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 你说多少？
: 确定还能叫股市？ 78-85的空间已经不错了。
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 13 我靠，昨天刚吼。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 在油价85时，一切照旧，CapEX加分红正好够。
: 油价80，要去掉分红，CapEX才够。或者CapEX减少。
: 现在看来油价会在78到85之间，会有问题，但生存是可以的。
: Q3平均90,还能挣一点. Q4是要亏钱的，Asset Sale很重要。
: Rim 是对的，5刀以下可以建仓。
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 14 今天涨是因为卖掉5%的资产卖了335M，按这个算法，总资产值6B， 呵呵 |
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 15 你准备长期持有？
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: 今天涨是因为卖掉5%的资产卖了335M，按这个算法，总资产值6B， 呵呵
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 16 没计划，我满意了就走，不满意就继续捂着。
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 你准备长期持有？
|
h******k
发帖数: 1478 | |
p*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 18 我跟。10年时候的老相好了。我倒没有多看好，跌这么低可能情况很糟吧。只是觉得现
在的情况让我想起08年底，大家觉得能源保险，就买能源分红股，结果09年3月就血跌
，当时死捂一个好像叫hte的，从7块直到它10块被收购。现在我就赌pwe最差被收购了。
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: 没计划，我满意了就走，不满意就继续捂着。
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | |
p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 20 If oil goes to $70, I guess PWE will be around $3.50.
I may consider buying some back at this price range
or wait until see the oil price firm up.
Looks like Saudi really wanted to stop US shale oil industry
by cutting oil price here and there. The shale oil wells will be
dry out after 18-24 months. So, the US shale oil production
may start going down after another year even if no
more new investment going to the shale oil industry. |
|
|
h******k
发帖数: 1478 | |
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 22 Tomorrow er might not be that bad since average Q3 price should be around 90
+. However it is the planning for next year that is scaring.
Management were too eager to turnaround and thus screwed up. They did not
hedge oil price and they did not sell the biggest piece of asset while oil
was still at 100+.
Now cash flow is a problem and debt is called into question. What they
should
do at $75 oil is to cut dividend 100% and capex by at least $200M. The
problem is that they will be punished badly if dividend is gone. Of course,
now $78 is breached and we are looking at below $75 and possibly $60 oil.
Saudi's goal is to force american oil production cut and PWE probably will
be the first casualty.
If you want to buy low, please buy the jewel of the sector and PWE is the
dog of the sector.
Watch closely and see if CHK can close the $5.7B deal. If they can, CHK is
the jewel.
【在 h******k 的大作中提到】
: PWE 明天 ER？
|
p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 23
90
,
CHK just sold a big asset for $5.3B to southwest energy.
Is it going to sell another asset ? I didn't follow CHK
much. If CHK sells assets at current environment, it will
not get good deal. That also would limit its upside when
energy price goes high after 1-2 years. I remember I saw
an article mentioned that the asset sold to southwest energy
is only around $18/barrel for the reserve. That's kind of low.
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: Tomorrow er might not be that bad since average Q3 price should be around 90
: +. However it is the planning for next year that is scaring.
: Management were too eager to turnaround and thus screwed up. They did not
: hedge oil price and they did not sell the biggest piece of asset while oil
: was still at 100+.
: Now cash flow is a problem and debt is called into question. What they
: should
: do at $75 oil is to cut dividend 100% and capex by at least $200M. The
: problem is that they will be punished badly if dividend is gone. Of course,
: now $78 is breached and we are looking at below $75 and possibly $60 oil.
|
h******k
发帖数: 1478 | 24 Thank you for the clarification.
90
,
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: Tomorrow er might not be that bad since average Q3 price should be around 90
: +. However it is the planning for next year that is scaring.
: Management were too eager to turnaround and thus screwed up. They did not
: hedge oil price and they did not sell the biggest piece of asset while oil
: was still at 100+.
: Now cash flow is a problem and debt is called into question. What they
: should
: do at $75 oil is to cut dividend 100% and capex by at least $200M. The
: problem is that they will be punished badly if dividend is gone. Of course,
: now $78 is breached and we are looking at below $75 and possibly $60 oil.
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 25 I made a typo. I meant that CHK need to close $5.3B deal they announced
several weeks ago with SWN. There is always a question whether they can
close the deal in Dec if oil price keeps dropping. However based upon SWN
price movement, it looks like the deal is going to close, especially that is
NG rich asset and NG price is moving up. For NG asset mostly, $18 is not
bad because NG is about 1/6 to 1/3 of the oil price.
I don't think there are more deals coming for CHK and I doubt PWE can sell
at current situation.
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
:
: 90
: ,
: CHK just sold a big asset for $5.3B to southwest energy.
: Is it going to sell another asset ? I didn't follow CHK
: much. If CHK sells assets at current environment, it will
: not get good deal. That also would limit its upside when
: energy price goes high after 1-2 years. I remember I saw
: an article mentioned that the asset sold to southwest energy
: is only around $18/barrel for the reserve. That's kind of low.
|
C********1
发帖数: 5281 | |
p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 27
is
I see, if this is the case(NG for $18/berrel), it is not a bad deal.
I think PWE made 2 big mistakes as you mentioned.
One is not selling asset when oil was over $100. Probably the management
was scared the large production drop after selling big assets. The
beginning of this year it caused the stock price went to $7 level after
it announced deal.
Another one is the oil hedge. They are just too confident that oil
could stay around $90 level. I guess many did, include myself.
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: I made a typo. I meant that CHK need to close $5.3B deal they announced
: several weeks ago with SWN. There is always a question whether they can
: close the deal in Dec if oil price keeps dropping. However based upon SWN
: price movement, it looks like the deal is going to close, especially that is
: NG rich asset and NG price is moving up. For NG asset mostly, $18 is not
: bad because NG is about 1/6 to 1/3 of the oil price.
: I don't think there are more deals coming for CHK and I doubt PWE can sell
: at current situation.
|
l*********6
发帖数: 46 | 28 看了大牛的分析，果断盘后割肉。我不玩能源股了还不行。 |
x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 29 Penn West Petroleum misses by $0.11, misses on revenue • 6:47 AM
Gaurav Batavia, SA News Editor
Penn West Petroleum (NYSE:PWE): Q3 EPS of -$0.03 misses by $0.11.
Revenue of $584M (-24.5% Y/Y) misses by $21.94M. |
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 30 Not too bad for the quarter, but that is the beginning of the end.
【在 x***n 的大作中提到】
: Penn West Petroleum misses by $0.11, misses on revenue • 6:47 AM
: Gaurav Batavia, SA News Editor
: Penn West Petroleum (NYSE:PWE): Q3 EPS of -$0.03 misses by $0.11.
: Revenue of $584M (-24.5% Y/Y) misses by $21.94M.
|
