E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 1 看不出这款产品的思路在哪里？ 买TESLA的主都不缺钱，谁会省几万块不去买P85D而去
买70D? 听上去有点像IPHONE 5S 和5C的区别。 这种都能让股价涨真是笑话。 |
f*******e
发帖数: 5277 | 2 没错，而且仔细看的话，特斯拉是在打折卖。估计是订单不够需求出问题了。就算降价
处理能把销量稳住，毛利肯定大打折扣
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 看不出这款产品的思路在哪里？ 买TESLA的主都不缺钱，谁会省几万块不去买P85D而去
: 买70D? 听上去有点像IPHONE 5S 和5C的区别。 这种都能让股价涨真是笑话。
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 3 我早就说过，没有那么多有钱的主，而且有钱的主还不觉得Model S够奢华。 |
m***e
发帖数: 810 | 4 这你也看出来了。TSLA Q1定单锐减，因此必须不停的出花样吸引客户。不过7万以上的
车，打折效果如何还有待市场检验。如果需求还是不能有效增长，TSLA今年麻烦不小。
【在 f*******e 的大作中提到】
: 没错，而且仔细看的话，特斯拉是在打折卖。估计是订单不够需求出问题了。就算降价
: 处理能把销量稳住，毛利肯定大打折扣
|
f*******e
发帖数: 5277 | 5 我现在越来越觉得你的判断力其实很准
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 我早就说过，没有那么多有钱的主，而且有钱的主还不觉得Model S够奢华。
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 6 70D 68k, p85D 100k 差很多了。
4x4 原来就是个5k的option, 70D等于是买四轮驱动后免费加了电池和super charge。
240mile比原来的160mile多了50%。这个价钱在bmw 低配的740x和高配的535x附近。 非
常有竞争力。其他的gas saving, environment 等等都不考虑。performance,
flexibility 都胜出。这个车型出来基本能肯定下两个季度delivery target不会miss.
后面跟着modelX要上市。油价跌到这里也差不多了。 很可能底已经过去了。
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 看不出这款产品的思路在哪里？ 买TESLA的主都不缺钱，谁会省几万块不去买P85D而去
: 买70D? 听上去有点像IPHONE 5S 和5C的区别。 这种都能让股价涨真是笑话。
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 7 不敢当！ 我说过我不懂技术，我只是从商业前途来看特斯拉这个公司的发展。股价存
在一个被操纵的可能性，明明消息不好反而大涨，消息好了来个Sell On News。但是公
司的发展前景从它的产品思路能够看出来，当然这当中也有其它竞争对手发展好坏的因
素。特斯拉这波从181涨到207有道理吗？ 没道理，但是股市不需要道理，就是心理战
。但是存在的问题是不会消失的，不是不报时间未到，时间一到统统报销。 TESLA再看
2-3个Quarter的财报。 如果没有新车，只靠Model S和这个70D撑着，我很惊讶销量还
会持续上涨，那真是太牛逼了。
苹果出新产品前早已满城风雨，但是Tesla这个70D搞得像个公布ER一样，之前杳无音讯
，说明特斯拉没有底气。我最近一直在学做Business。看看70D和P85的区别和卖点。
Tesla说是价格75000美元，算上7500美元的补贴，不到70000美元，What type of
bullshit is that? 3万美元以下的车去谈补贴吧！ 7万多的车还谈补贴真是搞笑。
70D和P85之间的价格没有拉开，如果性能非常接近的话，那也算是个卖点，但是70D性
能上不如P85。如果P85是个豪华版的话，70D是个普通版， 或称简易版。 开Tesla的主
都是好面子的，放着P85D不买，去买个70D，真有点不伦不类，逻辑在哪里？Q1不好是
个不争的事实，我想特斯拉希望通过出这款70D，能够拉拢那些介于富人和普通收入之
间的那个阶层， 就是想玩玩新的东西但是米没有多到想都不用想的地步。这个阶层的
人真的不多。另外一个思路就是换汤不换药地来个新产品推出，Pump一下股价，让投资
者感觉Tesla还是不断推陈出新的，公司很有青春活力！ 但是注意换汤不换药这个说法
。
【在 f*******e 的大作中提到】
: 我现在越来越觉得你的判断力其实很准
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 8 看一下这篇介绍 http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-new-model-s-20150409-story.html
尤其注意
"Tesla Motors is fine-tuning its offering by significantly revising its base
Model S, giving it added range and standard all-wheel drive [which] makes
the base model more appealing and should drive up its popularity," said
Kelley Blue Book market analyst Jack Nerad. "But we expect that most Tesla
buyers will continue to step up to the top-level versions of the car, which
offer more range."
The lower price of the 70D comes with less performance. The P85D, which
starts at $105,000 and can cost much more with options, comes with an "
insane" driving mode and accelerates from zero to 60 mph in just over 3
seconds.
想省钱又想玩电动的主还不如等Model 3出来再买。续航里程是240英里，比P85短。 不
知道160英里你是指哪一辆车？
有个问题想请教，如果这辆车很有竞争力，为啥不先推这个而是Model S? 价格上讲，
不是有更多人可以Afford吗？
。
miss.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 70D 68k, p85D 100k 差很多了。
: 4x4 原来就是个5k的option, 70D等于是买四轮驱动后免费加了电池和super charge。
: 240mile比原来的160mile多了50%。这个价钱在bmw 低配的740x和高配的535x附近。 非
: 常有竞争力。其他的gas saving, environment 等等都不考虑。performance,
: flexibility 都胜出。这个车型出来基本能肯定下两个季度delivery target不会miss.
: 后面跟着modelX要上市。油价跌到这里也差不多了。 很可能底已经过去了。
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 9 另外这个价位玩特斯拉车的人有关心油价的吗？ 肯定不会是等到油价涨了再去买吧，
基本上就是想买就买。 油价哪怕1美元一加仑，这些人也照买不误。另外，
Performance也是个见仁见智的事情。奔驰、宝马我有开过，能够感受到和丰田、本田
的区别。说实话，要和Volvo 和A6比Performance也大概是心理作用吧。
。
miss.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 70D 68k, p85D 100k 差很多了。
: 4x4 原来就是个5k的option, 70D等于是买四轮驱动后免费加了电池和super charge。
: 240mile比原来的160mile多了50%。这个价钱在bmw 低配的740x和高配的535x附近。 非
: 常有竞争力。其他的gas saving, environment 等等都不考虑。performance,
: flexibility 都胜出。这个车型出来基本能肯定下两个季度delivery target不会miss.
: 后面跟着modelX要上市。油价跌到这里也差不多了。 很可能底已经过去了。
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 10 另外还有一个就是安全性的问题，Tesla现在这个销量，起火的事故还不算多，如果销
量上去了，起火事故也一定会上去，这个来几次，看看股价会有啥反应。 |
|
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 11 160mile is the range of original low price model, 60.
There are people like DFBB, and there are also ppl like BBA. TESLA will make
cars to compete in each segments. They are currently competing in higher
end performance sedan segments. p85d is aiming for super performance sports
car, like BMW 760 which is V12 and 0-60 4.5. Cost 140k+. I'm sure u can
understand BMW only sell a tiny bit of 760. TESLA is similar.
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 看一下这篇介绍 http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-new-model-s-20150409-story.html
: 尤其注意
: "Tesla Motors is fine-tuning its offering by significantly revising its base
: Model S, giving it added range and standard all-wheel drive [which] makes
: the base model more appealing and should drive up its popularity," said
: Kelley Blue Book market analyst Jack Nerad. "But we expect that most Tesla
: buyers will continue to step up to the top-level versions of the car, which
: offer more range."
: The lower price of the 70D comes with less performance. The P85D, which
: starts at $105,000 and can cost much more with options, comes with an "
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 12 There are people who don't care about price of oil. But there are much much
more people care. If TSLA can only compete in that former group, it will
never be a successful company. The highest profit actually comes from the
near luxury segment. Top line model sure gets u high margins, but u don't
sell many. Low price model will get u a lot of sale, but u have to have the
capacity. TSLA is moving along the line of gradually expanding sale when
their capacity increases from TOP Down
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 另外这个价位玩特斯拉车的人有关心油价的吗？ 肯定不会是等到油价涨了再去买吧，
: 基本上就是想买就买。 油价哪怕1美元一加仑，这些人也照买不误。另外，
: Performance也是个见仁见智的事情。奔驰、宝马我有开过，能够感受到和丰田、本田
: 的区别。说实话，要和Volvo 和A6比Performance也大概是心理作用吧。
:
: 。
: miss.
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 13 Agree! However, I think the bottleneck for e-cars is the cost of batteries.
At a high-end price range, Musk has ample room to play for the type of
dream performance that Tesla is boasting right now. By contrast, at low-end
price range, battery price becomes the major rate-limiting factor for the
vehicle to maintain a high standard performance. Many things need to be
compromised. That way, where are the advantages of Tesla? Such issues do
not happen to oil cars since the engine price does not account for a big
portion of the car costs.
Anyway, 70D is deemed to be a transitional product. The funny thing is most
of the people will persuade me not to purchase any transitional product.
The reason is simple. You just need to show a little bit more patience
before getting more value for money.
Let's keep our eyes open to witness how the market will respond to this new
gadget. In the mean time, thanks for the explanation!
make
sports
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 160mile is the range of original low price model, 60.
: There are people like DFBB, and there are also ppl like BBA. TESLA will make
: cars to compete in each segments. They are currently competing in higher
: end performance sedan segments. p85d is aiming for super performance sports
: car, like BMW 760 which is V12 and 0-60 4.5. Cost 140k+. I'm sure u can
: understand BMW only sell a tiny bit of 760. TESLA is similar.
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 14 Well, I see your point. As we know it, the budget for the majority car
buyers is $15000-$30000. Therefore, your model is correct since Tesla is
going to put their price tag at $35000. In the last message, my major
concern is how long it takes to get the battery price down significantly to
cater for the need of the cars at this price. 1-2 years are fine. What if
nothing becomes available? Is Tesla still going to wait to launch the Model
3 until the battery price falls down to their acceptance level?
Alternatively, they may try other means but the question is how long it
takes to validate the new technology? Just to make a joke here. Can $35000
Tesla Model 3 really beat BYD? If not, why can't we put BYD into play here?
much
the
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: There are people who don't care about price of oil. But there are much much
: more people care. If TSLA can only compete in that former group, it will
: never be a successful company. The highest profit actually comes from the
: near luxury segment. Top line model sure gets u high margins, but u don't
: sell many. Low price model will get u a lot of sale, but u have to have the
: capacity. TSLA is moving along the line of gradually expanding sale when
: their capacity increases from TOP Down
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 15 To mention BYD here is because once the price goes down to $35000, one
should not expect the Model 3 to have the same luxury as that from Model S.
One may definitely be disappointed even if the price gap is clearly there.
Since the battery cost takes almost half of the car price, there is not too
much leeway left for the rest of the parts to look fancy. At that time, one
may also complain how low-end looking Tesla has. Governmental subsidy may be
a way out but I am positive the proposal will very likely be dismissed by
the reps of the big oil firms at the congress.
Anyway, Tesla is doing everything they can to move forward but the route is
deemed to be full of hurdles. |
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 16 First of all, "nothing becomes available" is more likely to happen with oil
than electricity. Battery are nothing more than capacitors to hold
electricity. many kinds of metal can hold electricity. from Lead, to Nicad
to lithium, and now aluminum - i don't see why u would think battery would
become exhausted? the price can only go down, how soon? nobody knows.
Lithium battery was quite expansive when it first came out, but now its
fairly cheap. - just check the price on your iPhone portable charger. one
thing for sure, it won't go up. and price of oil is very likely to go up.
and when you talk about fire. gasoline is thousand times likely to catch
fire than metal, would you agree? so much so vehicle catching fire in a auto
accident are not even news. pretty soon people would think you are crazy
running around sitting on a tank of gasoline and a sparks.
whether TSLA will win out against company like BYD is hard to say. This is
where Elon Musk's genius come into play. So far i think he is hitting all
the key points - gigafactory will be the corner of electrical vehicle,
ensuring TSLA will not be constrained on battery, potentially dictate other
companies profitability; solarcity - which install solar panel for roof top,
i see it convert to auto front and roof panel fairly easily - then it could
expand the range of electric vehicle significantly - theoretically
indefinitely. meanwhile he is adamant that TSLA sells directly - don't let
the unnecessary middle men cut into the profit, which means TSLA have more
pricing power to stay competitive. The real competitor will be AAPL if it
chose to enter electrical car market, but earliest you would see a prototype
of iCar is 2018.
to
if
Model
35000
here?
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: Well, I see your point. As we know it, the budget for the majority car
: buyers is $15000-$30000. Therefore, your model is correct since Tesla is
: going to put their price tag at $35000. In the last message, my major
: concern is how long it takes to get the battery price down significantly to
: cater for the need of the cars at this price. 1-2 years are fine. What if
: nothing becomes available? Is Tesla still going to wait to launch the Model
: 3 until the battery price falls down to their acceptance level?
: Alternatively, they may try other means but the question is how long it
: takes to validate the new technology? Just to make a joke here. Can $35000
: Tesla Model 3 really beat BYD? If not, why can't we put BYD into play here?
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 17 Very interesting. There definitely seems something I can dwell a little
more on but at this moment my circadian rhythm is telling me time to sleep.
Will get back to you tomorrow. Good night! |
T*U
发帖数: 22634 | 18 电池差10kw，为啥range多了50%？除了起步没以前快，哪里技术提高了？
。
miss.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 70D 68k, p85D 100k 差很多了。
: 4x4 原来就是个5k的option, 70D等于是买四轮驱动后免费加了电池和super charge。
: 240mile比原来的160mile多了50%。这个价钱在bmw 低配的740x和高配的535x附近。 非
: 常有竞争力。其他的gas saving, environment 等等都不考虑。performance,
: flexibility 都胜出。这个车型出来基本能肯定下两个季度delivery target不会miss.
: 后面跟着modelX要上市。油价跌到这里也差不多了。 很可能底已经过去了。
|
T*U
发帖数: 22634 | 19 tsla要做的是把投资赚回来，再出model 3。出model 3，利润低要靠量，但是没电池量
真上不去。
现在就是用时间换空间。
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 不敢当！ 我说过我不懂技术，我只是从商业前途来看特斯拉这个公司的发展。股价存
: 在一个被操纵的可能性，明明消息不好反而大涨，消息好了来个Sell On News。但是公
: 司的发展前景从它的产品思路能够看出来，当然这当中也有其它竞争对手发展好坏的因
: 素。特斯拉这波从181涨到207有道理吗？ 没道理，但是股市不需要道理，就是心理战
: 。但是存在的问题是不会消失的，不是不报时间未到，时间一到统统报销。 TESLA再看
: 2-3个Quarter的财报。 如果没有新车，只靠Model S和这个70D撑着，我很惊讶销量还
: 会持续上涨，那真是太牛逼了。
: 苹果出新产品前早已满城风雨，但是Tesla这个70D搞得像个公布ER一样，之前杳无音讯
: ，说明特斯拉没有底气。我最近一直在学做Business。看看70D和P85的区别和卖点。
: Tesla说是价格75000美元，算上7500美元的补贴，不到70000美元，What type of
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 20 range从208->240
加速 从6.2->5.2
【在 T*U 的大作中提到】
: 电池差10kw，为啥range多了50%？除了起步没以前快，哪里技术提高了？
:
: 。
: miss.
|
|
|
k**l
发帖数: 2966 | 21 大夫头脑比较清晰，也有耐心给爱丁堡等人讲解，赞一下。
不过纠正一个小问题，汽车上的太阳能只可能作为少量补充，不可能作为主要能源。太
阳直射到大气层外的功率是每平方米1.4千瓦。现实中不可能直射，大气层吸收，电池
板效率<1，所以汽车上那几平米的面积带不动汽车。
oil
auto
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: First of all, "nothing becomes available" is more likely to happen with oil
: than electricity. Battery are nothing more than capacitors to hold
: electricity. many kinds of metal can hold electricity. from Lead, to Nicad
: to lithium, and now aluminum - i don't see why u would think battery would
: become exhausted? the price can only go down, how soon? nobody knows.
: Lithium battery was quite expansive when it first came out, but now its
: fairly cheap. - just check the price on your iPhone portable charger. one
: thing for sure, it won't go up. and price of oil is very likely to go up.
: and when you talk about fire. gasoline is thousand times likely to catch
: fire than metal, would you agree? so much so vehicle catching fire in a auto
|
f*******e
发帖数: 5277 | 22 商用不太现实，技术上还是可以实现的。
每年都有纯太阳能电车的比赛
【在 k**l 的大作中提到】
: 大夫头脑比较清晰，也有耐心给爱丁堡等人讲解，赞一下。
: 不过纠正一个小问题，汽车上的太阳能只可能作为少量补充，不可能作为主要能源。太
: 阳直射到大气层外的功率是每平方米1.4千瓦。现实中不可能直射，大气层吸收，电池
: 板效率<1，所以汽车上那几平米的面积带不动汽车。
:
: oil
: auto
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 23 太阳能作为原动力现在看还太遥远， 但TSLA并不需要。 电力到处都有， 弄成
supercharger实际就是电压的转换。 估计不需要太久就就会像银行的branch和ATM一样
。 各地商家为了吸引电车的主来购物， parkinglot里弄几个专门的电车位， 一边能
购物， 一边能充电。 现在一些high end的mall里都有了。 太阳能作为一个辅助的动
力， 能够把车移动几个mile到达有充电桩的地方就行， 这能够完全解决RANGE
ANXIETY的问题。
我要现在进这行里就会搞充电桩－一边接110v一边出电插头， 加个收费的办法， 四面
还能贴广告， 然后到各商家去兜售。各个商家也想提高逼格的。
【在 k**l 的大作中提到】
: 大夫头脑比较清晰，也有耐心给爱丁堡等人讲解，赞一下。
: 不过纠正一个小问题，汽车上的太阳能只可能作为少量补充，不可能作为主要能源。太
: 阳直射到大气层外的功率是每平方米1.4千瓦。现实中不可能直射，大气层吸收，电池
: 板效率<1，所以汽车上那几平米的面积带不动汽车。
:
: oil
: auto
|
v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 24 组装线会简化一些，然后ASP会再提高一点。你说的对，想买P85D的肯定不会考虑省几
万买70D,所以70D替换的全是60。长期来讲，我觉得Tesla走纯全驱路线是不可避免的--
对performance, efficiency,marketing message,manufacturing complexity都有好处。
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 看不出这款产品的思路在哪里？ 买TESLA的主都不缺钱，谁会省几万块不去买P85D而去
: 买70D? 听上去有点像IPHONE 5S 和5C的区别。 这种都能让股价涨真是笑话。
|
