g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: gjq (不好啦,咕咚掉到井里啦), 信区: Military
标 题: 美国一季度经济负增长
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 29 09:05:02 2015, 美东)
WASHINGTON,(Reuters) - The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter as
it buckled under the weight of unusually heavy snowfalls and a resurgent
dollar, but activity has rebounded modestly.
The government on Friday slashed its gross domestic product estimate to show
it shrinking at a 0.7 percent annual rate instead of the 0.2 percent growth
pace it estimated last month.
A larger trade deficit and a smaller accumulation of inventories by
businesses than previously thought accounted for much of the downward
revision.
There was also a modest downward revision to consumer spending.
With growth estimates so far for the second quarter around 2 percent, the
economy appears poised for its worst first-half performance since 2011.
Economists, however, caution against reading too much into the slump in
output. They argue the GDP figure for the first quarter was held down by a
confluence of temporary factors, including a problem with the model the
government uses to smooth the data for seasonal fluctuations.
Economists, including those at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, have
cast doubts on the accuracy of GDP estimates for the first quarter, which
have tended to show weakness over the last several years.
They argued the so-called seasonal adjustment is not fully stripping out
seasonal patterns, leaving "residual" seasonality.
The government said last week it was aware of the potential problem and was
working to minimize it.
When measured from the income side, the economy expanded at a 1.4 percent
rate in the first quarter.
A measure of domestic demand was revised up one-tenth of a percentage point
to a 0.8 percent rate and business spending on equipment was much stronger
than previously estimated, taking some edge off the slump in output.
Economists had expected GDP would be revised down to show it contracting at
a 0.8 percent pace.
DOLLAR, ENERGY DRAG
Apart from the statistical quirk, the economy, which expanded at a 2.2
percent pace in the fourth quarter, was hammered by labour disruptions at
West Coast ports. Also dragging on growth was a sharp decline in investment
spending in the energy sector as companies such as Schlumberger (SLB.N) and
Halliburton (HAL.N) responded to the plunge in crude oil prices. Spending on
nonresidential structures, which includes oil exploration and well drilling
, was revised up to show it tumbling at a 20.8 percent rate instead of the
previously reported 23.1 pace. Mining exploration, shafts and wells
investment plunged at a 48.6 percent pace, the largest since the second
quarter of 2009.
Economists estimate unusually heavy snowfalls in February chopped at least
one percentage point from growth.
Trade was hit both by the strong dollar and the ports dispute, which weighed
on exports through the quarter and then unleashed a flood of imports in
March after it was resolved.
That resulted in a trade deficit that subtracted 1.90 percentage points from
GDP instead of the 1.25 percentage points reported last month.
The GDP report also showed after-tax corporate profits declined 8.7 percent.
That was the largest drop in a year and the second straight quarterly fall,
as the dollar weighed on multinational corporations and oil prices hurt
domestic firms.
Multinationals like Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), household products maker
Procter & Gamble Co (PG.N) and healthcare conglomerate Johnson & Johnson (
JNJ.N) have warned the dollar will hit sales and profits this year.
While the economy has pulled out of its first-quarter stall, data on retail
sales and industrial production have suggested only a modest pace of growth
early in the second quarter. But reports on housing, consumer confidence and
business spending plans indicated momentum could be building.
Unlike 2014, when growth snapped back quickly after a dismal first quarter,
the dollar and investment cuts by energy companies continue to hamstring
activity.
But growth could accelerate as the year progresses.
The value of inventory accumulated in the first quarter was revised down to
an increase of $95 billion from the lofty $110.3 billion (72 billion pounds)
increase reported last month. That meant inventories contributed 0.33
percentage point to GDP instead of the previously reported 0.74 percentage
point, suggesting warehouses are not bulging with unwanted merchandise and
that businesses have latitude to order more goods from factories.
While consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S.
economic activity, was revised down by one-tenth of a percentage point to a
1.8 percent rate, it could finally get a lift from the considerable savings
households amassed because of cheaper gasoline.
Personal savings increased at a robust $726.4 billion pace. The dollar rally
has faded and the greenback is about 4 percent off its peak in March
against the currencies of the main U.S. trading partners, easing pressure on
U.S. exporters. In addition, rig counts suggest the energy investment rout
is nearing its end.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao) |
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