a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 1 NG has been consolidating in the past 7 years, starting at $12 in 2008 and
now at $2.8. It was a painful process and the cost fundamental will be in
the play. Currently, most of the player are still losing money under $3. I
don't expect it to be back to $5 in the short term, but $3.5 to 4 is a real
possibility in the next 6 month. All we need is a little bit of tailwind and
they are all lined up including: oil and NG rig reduction, LNG take-away
starting in Q4 and coal companies going BK. They are all incremental but
they are all support the fundamental.
NG rig has been down in the past 6 years and that was not enough. However,
recent drop in oil rig should give it a push as NG is the major by product
of oil production.
LNG takeaway will start in Q4, albeit a small amount. The current one train
at Sabine Pass will take only 0.7 bcf per day. However, that will translate
into 200 bcf per year. Right now the NG storage is around 3950 and we are 5%
above 5 year average. One train capacity is enough to take that 5% away.
Remember that is just one train out of 6 trains coming in the next several
years and more on the way.
NG useage for electricity has been up 5% a year. That trend will keep up as
more and more coal companies going BK as evidenced in the past several month.
For oil price to restore balance, it might not be as long as 6 -7 years. But
I do see 2-3 years. It might not be as painful as NG but this is a
structural change and this time is different. | t**c
发帖数: 7480 | | C*K
发帖数: 400 | 3 first, do not just look at Henry hub price. NG price is way too related to
local demand. marcellus surplus and takeaway will be a longterm problem to
be solved before i bet my money on ng. also for ng, rig number is not a good
indicator for supply-demand balance as you have seen in the past. aside
from policy reason, i did not see quicker coal displacement from spark
spread and dark spread. lastly, I agree with you on oil.
：NG has been consolidating in the past 7 years, starting at $12 in 2008 and
：now at $2.8. It was a painful process and the cost fundamental will be in | a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 4 I am not betting on quick and dramatic return, I am betting on a slow
restore to balance. I agree with you everything is incremental, but when
synchronized, it can move the mountain. It is the last straw that we need,
may it be the oil rig reduction, marcellus production reduction, coal price
going up or LNG takeaway.
good
and
in
【在 C*K 的大作中提到】
: first, do not just look at Henry hub price. NG price is way too related to
: local demand. marcellus surplus and takeaway will be a longterm problem to
: be solved before i bet my money on ng. also for ng, rig number is not a good
: indicator for supply-demand balance as you have seen in the past. aside
: from policy reason, i did not see quicker coal displacement from spark
: spread and dark spread. lastly, I agree with you on oil.
:
: ：NG has been consolidating in the past 7 years, starting at $12 in 2008 and
: ：now at $2.8. It was a painful process and the cost fundamental will be in
| u******n
发帖数: 5727 | | C*K
发帖数: 400 | 6 it is an early call but i am not sure it is a good call for 蛙蛙们 and 蝌蚪
们, especially in this general weakness of commodity and emerging market.
：I am not betting on quick and dramatic return, I am betting on a slow
：restore to balance. I agree with you everything is incremental, but when | S**********3
发帖数: 188 | 7 同意，从长期看今年秋天上ng是很好的时机，控制好杠杆，到明年春天30%-50%的收益
应该没问题～
real
and
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: NG has been consolidating in the past 7 years, starting at $12 in 2008 and
: now at $2.8. It was a painful process and the cost fundamental will be in
: the play. Currently, most of the player are still losing money under $3. I
: don't expect it to be back to $5 in the short term, but $3.5 to 4 is a real
: possibility in the next 6 month. All we need is a little bit of tailwind and
: they are all lined up including: oil and NG rig reduction, LNG take-away
: starting in Q4 and coal companies going BK. They are all incremental but
: they are all support the fundamental.
: NG rig has been down in the past 6 years and that was not enough. However,
: recent drop in oil rig should give it a push as NG is the major by product
| a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 8 Agreed.
I am never a fan of buying UNG.
【在 C*K 的大作中提到】
: it is an early call but i am not sure it is a good call for 蛙蛙们 and 蝌蚪
: 们, especially in this general weakness of commodity and emerging market.
:
: ：I am not betting on quick and dramatic return, I am betting on a slow
: ：restore to balance. I agree with you everything is incremental, but when
| c****w
发帖数: 2830 | 9 in terms of trading psychology.
ng近期走势的特点是，好几次在关键位置，摆开了架势做好了姿态要往上飞。在这个时
候，总有什么神奇的力量突然到来，啪的一下就软了。软的位置和时间点，相当的精准。
i think one can argue ng is a piece of shit for a long time, so any failure
is an of-course.
i will skip it unless it's able to 硬起来 @ 关键时候。 | a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 10 Can it be possible that it is training for people to get use to the trading
range until one day everybody get surprised?
It will be really sexy that way!
准。
failure
【在 c****w 的大作中提到】
: in terms of trading psychology.
: ng近期走势的特点是，好几次在关键位置，摆开了架势做好了姿态要往上飞。在这个时
: 候，总有什么神奇的力量突然到来，啪的一下就软了。软的位置和时间点，相当的精准。
: i think one can argue ng is a piece of shit for a long time, so any failure
: is an of-course.
: i will skip it unless it's able to 硬起来 @ 关键时候。
| d****m
发帖数: 1008 | 11 看好天然气还不买UNG，求教正确投资渠道？？？
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: Agreed.
: I am never a fan of buying UNG.
| a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 12 UNG has intrinsic loss built in month after month.
Buy NG producing companies, and don't be confused with oil companies.
The good ones are CHK and SWN. If you want ETF, try FCG?
【在 d****m 的大作中提到】
: 看好天然气还不买UNG，求教正确投资渠道？？？
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