S*******n
发帖数: 10009 | |
m***a
发帖数: 198 | 2 难道市场不高吗？ ：）
对于这些老江湖来说，P/E 20就很高了，现在biotech里面P/E 20简直就是模范了，
tech里面P/E超过50也司空见惯，这些公司的growth rate能够对得上那么高的P/E吗
FED这7年印了这么多钱，物价没有怎么涨，房价整体微涨，老百姓收入基本没有涨，钱
都哪里去了，都在企业手里，股市里面，因为利率低，借贷成本低，公司都愿意举债，
回购股份，这样可以让earning虚假增长，然后推动股价增长，所有人都高兴，现在大
部分人觉得有泡沫，问题是什么时候会被挤破而已
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 看来他做空了.
|
S*******n
发帖数: 10009 | 3 正因为大家以为高，才不会跌
【在 m***a 的大作中提到】
: 难道市场不高吗？ ：）
: 对于这些老江湖来说，P/E 20就很高了，现在biotech里面P/E 20简直就是模范了，
: tech里面P/E超过50也司空见惯，这些公司的growth rate能够对得上那么高的P/E吗
: FED这7年印了这么多钱，物价没有怎么涨，房价整体微涨，老百姓收入基本没有涨，钱
: 都哪里去了，都在企业手里，股市里面，因为利率低，借贷成本低，公司都愿意举债，
: 回购股份，这样可以让earning虚假增长，然后推动股价增长，所有人都高兴，现在大
: 部分人觉得有泡沫，问题是什么时候会被挤破而已
|
t**c
发帖数: 7480 | 4 有道理。
如果大家都pump，才是崩盘的时候？
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 正因为大家以为高，才不会跌
|
w********o
发帖数: 10088 | 5 谁说物价没涨？
【在 m***a 的大作中提到】
: 难道市场不高吗？ ：）
: 对于这些老江湖来说，P/E 20就很高了，现在biotech里面P/E 20简直就是模范了，
: tech里面P/E超过50也司空见惯，这些公司的growth rate能够对得上那么高的P/E吗
: FED这7年印了这么多钱，物价没有怎么涨，房价整体微涨，老百姓收入基本没有涨，钱
: 都哪里去了，都在企业手里，股市里面，因为利率低，借贷成本低，公司都愿意举债，
: 回购股份，这样可以让earning虚假增长，然后推动股价增长，所有人都高兴，现在大
: 部分人觉得有泡沫，问题是什么时候会被挤破而已
|
S*******n
发帖数: 10009 | 6 sshhhh,我不太评论市场了
【在 t**c 的大作中提到】
: 有道理。
: 如果大家都pump，才是崩盘的时候？
|
g******n
发帖数: 1536 | 7 从12年到现在 inflation rate一直在2%以下
【在 w********o 的大作中提到】
: 谁说物价没涨？
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s*****n
发帖数: 2858 | 8 这也信?
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
: 从12年到现在 inflation rate一直在2%以下
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G*******n
发帖数: 6889 | 9 CPI这种被随便操的人为指数也相信，你不食人间烟火？即使没涨价的，眼睁睁，早饭
香肠只有原来四分之一大了，每盒纸巾从110张变成96张了。。。
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
: 从12年到现在 inflation rate一直在2%以下
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g******n
发帖数: 1536 | 10 要是官方数据都不信也没有办法 ：） 反正都是编造出来的 LOL
超市里面食品的贵了些 可是汽油便宜了，电子产品 手机费什么的便宜了，衣服什么大
概差不多
【在 G*******n 的大作中提到】
: CPI这种被随便操的人为指数也相信，你不食人间烟火？即使没涨价的，眼睁睁，早饭
: 香肠只有原来四分之一大了，每盒纸巾从110张变成96张了。。。
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|
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S*******n
发帖数: 10009 | 11 真的是，份量变小了。麦当劳，汉堡王都贵了还小了
【在 G*******n 的大作中提到】
: CPI这种被随便操的人为指数也相信，你不食人间烟火？即使没涨价的，眼睁睁，早饭
: 香肠只有原来四分之一大了，每盒纸巾从110张变成96张了。。。
|
j***w
发帖数: 489 | 12 他明显想放话打压大盘，等着抄底。他手里一大把apple的股票，就拼命叫apple
undervalued。就是屁股决定脑袋。
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 看来他做空了.
|
S*******n
发帖数: 10009 | 13 ah,所以被盯上，萍果大跌
【在 j***w 的大作中提到】
: 他明显想放话打压大盘，等着抄底。他手里一大把apple的股票，就拼命叫apple
: undervalued。就是屁股决定脑袋。
|
t**c
发帖数: 7480 | 14 搞完chk现在搞果子？
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: ah,所以被盯上，萍果大跌
|
w********8
发帖数: 716 | 15 别信，这里面没包括房价
[在 guesswsn (guess) 的大作中提到：]
：从12年到现在 inflation rate一直在2%以下
：
：........... |
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 16 是不包括房价的，甚至不包括食物的，但是这本来就是纵向比较，apple to apple的，
也是能说明问题的。
还有，现在的低通胀也限制了Fed升息的空间，这本身应该没有人为压低的嫌疑。相反
适当的通胀是市场愿意看见的。当然你要说华尔街喜欢零利率搞阴谋弄数据来达到一个
假的低通胀？I don't know.
【在 w********8 的大作中提到】
: 别信，这里面没包括房价
: [在 guesswsn (guess) 的大作中提到：]
: ：从12年到现在 inflation rate一直在2%以下
: ：
: ：...........
|
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 17 他肯定做空了，当然要做空了，他说现在市值虚高，如果他本身不做空的话，他就是
hypocrite,不是？
Carl Icahn说的一点都没错，但是人们不愿意听就是了。
事实上这6，7年的股市狂奔一直就是个泡沫，根本不是真正的recovery, 事实上经济根
本就没有recovered。大个比方，经济就是在life support的支撑下，居然虚假繁荣了6
，7年了！
现在的问题是，这样的虚假繁荣还能持续多久？
忠言逆耳。
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 看来他做空了.
|
w********o
发帖数: 10088 | 18 你是不是连鸡蛋都没买过
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
: 从12年到现在 inflation rate一直在2%以下
|
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 19 和买鸡蛋还真没啥关系
通胀率是不包括food,gas,utility,housing的
【在 w********o 的大作中提到】
: 你是不是连鸡蛋都没买过
|
N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 20 赞纸巾变96张
收藏了 谢谢
【在 G*******n 的大作中提到】
: CPI这种被随便操的人为指数也相信，你不食人间烟火？即使没涨价的，眼睁睁，早饭
: 香肠只有原来四分之一大了，每盒纸巾从110张变成96张了。。。
|
|
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 21 还真没注意过纸巾的张数 ...
【在 N****p 的大作中提到】
: 赞纸巾变96张
: 收藏了 谢谢
|
B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 22 Market is supported by excess cash. However, unless the Fed shrinks its
balance sheet or raise rate significantly, those cash cannot go anywhere
else. So there will be swings. Some day people panic and the market goes
down. Then people do not have good use of cash and so have to reinvest in
the stock market again and the market goes up. A scenario like 2008 and 2009
is only possible if the money supply gets reduced or if the real economic
fundamentals is much worse than that in 08 or 09. |
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 23 the market has been popped up by excess liquidity, this is not news. the
thing is, this is a bubble, not real recovery, everyone knows that, but
every is betting they can make the killing before the party is over.
2009
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: Market is supported by excess cash. However, unless the Fed shrinks its
: balance sheet or raise rate significantly, those cash cannot go anywhere
: else. So there will be swings. Some day people panic and the market goes
: down. Then people do not have good use of cash and so have to reinvest in
: the stock market again and the market goes up. A scenario like 2008 and 2009
: is only possible if the money supply gets reduced or if the real economic
: fundamentals is much worse than that in 08 or 09.
|
B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 24 The question remains: with so many excess money, where else would you put?
There will be downs, but not as dramatic as in 08 or 09 unless 1) Fed
decreased money supply drastically or 2) China is not growing.
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】
: the market has been popped up by excess liquidity, this is not news. the
: thing is, this is a bubble, not real recovery, everyone knows that, but
: every is betting they can make the killing before the party is over.
:
: 2009
|
S*******n
发帖数: 10009 | 25 现在还有国外的钱也来了.
2009
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: Market is supported by excess cash. However, unless the Fed shrinks its
: balance sheet or raise rate significantly, those cash cannot go anywhere
: else. So there will be swings. Some day people panic and the market goes
: down. Then people do not have good use of cash and so have to reinvest in
: the stock market again and the market goes up. A scenario like 2008 and 2009
: is only possible if the money supply gets reduced or if the real economic
: fundamentals is much worse than that in 08 or 09.
|
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 26 even in 08, there was still money out there, just people didn't want to put
them into stocks, so they ended up parking their money in money market, I
still remember at times the money market had negative interest rate, meaning
you let others to borrow your money and you even need to pay them for doing
that. That's crazy!
the market is all about animal spirits, nothing more nothing less. with that
, I cannot say for sure that money can solve all the problems.
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: The question remains: with so many excess money, where else would you put?
: There will be downs, but not as dramatic as in 08 or 09 unless 1) Fed
: decreased money supply drastically or 2) China is not growing.
|
B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 27 But the balance sheet of Fed is much larger than in 08, which is preventing
stock from reaching the level of 08. I have no doubt there may be a 20%
correction, but down 50% like in 08 or 09 is impossible in my opinion.
put
meaning
doing
that
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】
: even in 08, there was still money out there, just people didn't want to put
: them into stocks, so they ended up parking their money in money market, I
: still remember at times the money market had negative interest rate, meaning
: you let others to borrow your money and you even need to pay them for doing
: that. That's crazy!
: the market is all about animal spirits, nothing more nothing less. with that
: , I cannot say for sure that money can solve all the problems.
|
g******n
发帖数: 1536 | 28 你忘了还有债券市场,现在很多企业用股票做抵押来放债,因为利息低,企业借债已经成
了习惯 如果股票跌20%,这些债券全部要见外婆,这个正反馈起来了 那估计好日子就一
眼望不到头了
preventing
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: But the balance sheet of Fed is much larger than in 08, which is preventing
: stock from reaching the level of 08. I have no doubt there may be a 20%
: correction, but down 50% like in 08 or 09 is impossible in my opinion.
:
: put
: meaning
: doing
: that
|
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 29 a few weeks ago, we just saw dow all time high and nasdaq almost caught up
with their highs in 2000 ...
I cannot and will not make any prediction, all I know is that we have a
bumpy road ahead, since this has been a mess that we are all in.
preventing
【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: But the balance sheet of Fed is much larger than in 08, which is preventing
: stock from reaching the level of 08. I have no doubt there may be a 20%
: correction, but down 50% like in 08 or 09 is impossible in my opinion.
:
: put
: meaning
: doing
: that
|
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 30 and worse yet, companies are borrowing money to buy back their stocks! they
do this to inflate their stock price and also prettier their e/s ratio!
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
: 你忘了还有债券市场,现在很多企业用股票做抵押来放债,因为利息低,企业借债已经成
: 了习惯 如果股票跌20%,这些债券全部要见外婆,这个正反馈起来了 那估计好日子就一
: 眼望不到头了
:
: preventing
|
|
|
B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 31 Companies do this all the time. This has nothing to do with up or down
market.
they
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】
: and worse yet, companies are borrowing money to buy back their stocks! they
: do this to inflate their stock price and also prettier their e/s ratio!
|
B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 32 Money flows into bond market because there is no way to go. Fed's easy-money
policies are creating all those bubbles, but unless the easy money is over,
the bust of the bubble is limited. The bond are all long-term so there is
no short-term rollover risk.
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
: 你忘了还有债券市场,现在很多企业用股票做抵押来放债,因为利息低,企业借债已经成
: 了习惯 如果股票跌20%,这些债券全部要见外婆,这个正反馈起来了 那估计好日子就一
: 眼望不到头了
:
: preventing
|
