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发帖数: 294 | 1 http://www.commodities-now.com/news/power-and-energy/20511-mark
London, 19 January 2016
Has the market over-reacted to the Iran sanction lift?
“Sanctions placed on Iranian oil exports by the US and five other countries
were lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency found the country
to be compliant with its nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (the permanent
members of the United Nations Security Council–the United States, the
United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China plus Germany), plus the European
Union. Iran expects to lift exports by 500,000 barrels immediately and plans
to increase shipments by a further 500,000 barrels within months,"
according to Nitesh Shah, Director – Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities.
“Despite Iran’s ambitions (which we admit could lead the country to ignore
oil economics in pursuit of winning market share), the country’s
dilapidated infrastructure is unlikely to support the export of more than
300,000 extra barrels of oil. Iran does not have enough fields in operation.
Bringing online fields that have been delayed since 2014 would at most
allow for 400,000 additional barrels. Immediately injecting cash investments
cannot bring that figure up without a very long delay (18 months at minimum
and more likely 2-3 years to build new operational infrastructure).
Expanding Iranian production significantly will require the build-out of
more infrastructure, which would require the assistance of international oil
companies. In an era of low oil prices and global oil capex cuts, the
appetite to get involved is likely to fall short of expectations.”
Nitesh warns that Iran will encounter difficulties in marketing its oil.
“The sanction lift is limited, especially with regard to US corporate
involvement. US companies, including banks, insurers, oil companies or any
US national cannot be involved in the selling of Iranian oil or the
procurement of infrastructure. Sales of Iranian oil cannot take place using
US dollars. While European companies have more flexibility, their close
ties with the US pose challenges. Had oil prices been higher, Iran’s
strategy would have been to offer deep discounts on price to sell to
countries like India to compensate for the increased complexity of dealing
with its oil. But with oil prices so low, there is little potential for
discounting.
“Any expansion on Iranian oil production as a result of the sanction lift
will not be picked up in today’s OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and the
earliest point in which we will have any concrete data on production and
export increases will be on the 10 February report. We believe that the
market will be disappointed with the outcome. Saudi Arabia’s strategy to
increase market share by depressing oil prices is working, judging by the
size of the announced energy capex cuts in high-cost producing countries. We
believe that by OPEC’s 2nd June 2016 meeting, Saudi Arabia will soften its
tone and prepare the market for lower production (although little agreement
to cut OPEC production will take place at that meeting).
“Demand has meanwhile been recovering strongly in an era of low prices. IEA
expects oil demand to rise to 96.71 mb/d by Q4 2016 from 95.28mb/d in Q4
2015. As global capex cuts start to bite, non-OPEC oil production is likely
to fall. Factoring in a generous 1mn barrel increase in Iranian exports,
would still mean that the market is likely to be in a small deficit by the
end of the year.
“As the oil market moves back toward balance, prices will likely recover.
But we believe that the disappointment around Iran’s ability to ramp up
exports will hit the market earlier and reverse the sharp decline we have
seen in recent days.”
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