c*******v 发帖数: 2599 | 1 美国我不了解。
中国我问过银行的人,任何人承诺你无风险的投资
利率高于CD,都是违法的。(为什么我问银行的熟人
这个问题?就是因为我读了这个市场有效的理论以后,
直觉的认为,无风险利率是国本。在中国一定是严格
控制的。所以我就去问了。)
这意思就是说,法律规定,在风险为0这个端点上,
你是不许战胜市场的。
风险提高,你的利润能到多少,国家目前没有管。
但因为p2p问题太多,大规模科普已经在进行了。
所以我个人认为。
无论你是什么TA,一定要理解市场有效理论。
你要不理解市场有效理论,那你就跟国内散户大妈没区别,
说不定哪天就被卖拐的给坑了。 | I***a 发帖数: 13467 | 2 假说到这里就变成了理论,
下一个贴,估计是真理了。 | g****d 发帖数: 3461 | 3
这个已经被证明是错的了
EM的创造者得意了很多年,
因为这个东西无法验证。
后来终于发现反例了。
【在 I***a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 假说到这里就变成了理论, : 下一个贴,估计是真理了。
| c*******v 发帖数: 2599 | 4 什么反例?
【在 g****d 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : 这个已经被证明是错的了 : EM的创造者得意了很多年, : 因为这个东西无法验证。 : 后来终于发现反例了。
| c**t 发帖数: 9197 | 5 Although it is a cornerstone of modern financial theory, the EMH is highly
controversial and often disputed. Believers argue it is pointless to search
for undervalued stocks or to try to predict trends in the market through
either fundamental or technical analysis.
Meanwhile, while academics point to a large body of evidence in support of
EMH, an equal amount of dissension also exists. For example, investors, such
as Warren Buffett have consistently beaten the market over long periods of
time, which by definition is impossible according to the EMH. Detractors of
the EMH also point to events, such as the 1987 stock market crash when the
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by over 20% in a single day, as
evidence that stock prices can seriously deviate from their fair values. | c*******v 发帖数: 2599 | 6 1.
EMH作为理想市场的平衡态,这是没问题的。
这就好比宇宙热寂说一样。
2.
并没有哪个人会认为现在的市场已经是完美的理想状态了。
但这个空间是越来越小的。
3.
如果你认为散户的减少,指数基金的日益壮大是不可扭转的
趋势,那么你多多少少都是相信EMH的。散户炒个股
,应该了解到自己是逆势而行。
search
such
of
of
【在 c**t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Although it is a cornerstone of modern financial theory, the EMH is highly : controversial and often disputed. Believers argue it is pointless to search : for undervalued stocks or to try to predict trends in the market through : either fundamental or technical analysis. : Meanwhile, while academics point to a large body of evidence in support of : EMH, an equal amount of dissension also exists. For example, investors, such : as Warren Buffett have consistently beaten the market over long periods of : time, which by definition is impossible according to the EMH. Detractors of : the EMH also point to events, such as the 1987 stock market crash when the : Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by over 20% in a single day, as
| a*******g 发帖数: 3500 | | w***w 发帖数: 6301 | 8 EMH的研究对象是风险市场。
把它用在无风险市场就是张冠李戴。 | c*******v 发帖数: 2599 | 9 你从风险为0,摄动到0.001,不就进去风险市场了。
【在 w***w 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : EMH的研究对象是风险市场。 : 把它用在无风险市场就是张冠李戴。
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