s**t
发帖数: 17016 | 1 华尔街是告诉你机会来了，还是喊你去接盘，你自己判断
It’s the best time to buy bullish options on the Standard & Poor’s 500
Index in 20 years, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says.
The U.S. benchmark has a 21 percent probability of rising 5 percent in the
next month, according to a model by the New York bank that looks at free-
cash-flow yield, return on equity, Institute for Supply Management data and
capacity utilization. The options market is pricing in only a 5 percent
chance the S&P 500 will move as much.
“Call buying in this environment offers strong risk-reward and allows
investors to gain upside exposure while limiting risk,” derivatives
strategists including John Marshall and Katherine Fogertey wrote in a note
dated March 6.
U.S. stocks just completed a third week of gains, their longest stretch this
year, amid a surge in hiring and a rebound in oil. Since an almost two-year
low last month, the S&P 500 has rallied 9.3 percent. Yet options investors
remain less optimistic than what Goldman Sachs’s model suggests is
warranted given the fundamentals, according to the note.
The bank’s GS-EQMOVE, created two years ago, estimates the probabilities of
large S&P 500 moves over a one-month period. The model, which doesn’t take
into account technical analysis, positioning data or short-term events,
tends to be better at forecasting the potential for big swings, Goldman
Sachs says. | n*******s
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