L***6
发帖数: 8307 | 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGHmk4UeK_w
虽然是政治性的东西 Gordon Chang那一套 但是去过剩产能确实引起了低收入阶层的生
存困难 太多的就业岗位和高污染的能源，建筑行业捆绑 就连废旧金属回收都养活了很
多农村人 现在产业结构调整 真是很无奈的 国内已经严重过剩 一带一路貌似也是规模
很有限 毕竟大家都不想得罪美帝 很多合同不了了之了。。。 输出过剩产能解决不了
多少问题 现在面临的就是巨额的地方债务 无效投资 和巨量的高能耗高污染行业的大
规模失业问题
中国经济下行 主要是二元经济中的基础建设和房地产这一元迅速在萎缩 剩下另一元--
低端制造和出口在苦苦挣扎 但又在面临日美撤资促使制造业回迁 加上孟加拉这些人口
大国的竞争 所以这时候人民币贬值就很必要了
铁公鸡和房地产过去20多年真是贡献了很多的GDP 解决了几亿人的饭碗问题 但是现在
突然要不行了 房地产还tmd套牢了很多应该去发展实体经济的capital 恶化了贫富分化
问题 in retrospect 真是一手好牌 打烂了 | L***6
发帖数: 8307 | 2 不过去了趟抚顺看看鬼城 就说中国楼市要崩盘 这太扯了
我的回复：
The Chinese housing market won't just "crash", it's not a free market
economy, the real estate market is not highly leveraged with the wall street
securities like the MBS, those "loan sharks" are nothing compared to MBS
issuers like Lehman or Deutsche Bank, which made a real fortune and fucked
everybody and got away with it. The national and domestic debt are mostly
RMB debt (not foreign debts denominated in usd, eur....) which can be
digested by the PBOC by doing QE or the ongoing debt to equity conversion,
and the capital in/outflow is tightly controlled which means the massive
capital rout that happened in South Korea and Thailand in late 90's won't
happen in China. If you were Tim Cook you might want to get the hundreds of
billions of yuan hoarded in China back to the US, but how? The Chinese banks
(state owned) won't just give the dollars to Apple for its RMB cash assets
so they can happily send the money home, and this applies to all other
domestic and foreign companies operating in China. The economists in the
west should all know this, it's not hard rocket science, the perpetual worry
/fear mongering is merely political crap designed to brain wash the
oblivious general public who basically know shit. | C*****5
发帖数: 8812 | 3 码这么多字有点吃饱了撑的。没人会看的。对人类历史进程贡献为零。
street
【在 L***6 的大作中提到】
: 不过去了趟抚顺看看鬼城 就说中国楼市要崩盘 这太扯了
: 我的回复：
: The Chinese housing market won't just "crash", it's not a free market
: economy, the real estate market is not highly leveraged with the wall street
: securities like the MBS, those "loan sharks" are nothing compared to MBS
: issuers like Lehman or Deutsche Bank, which made a real fortune and fucked
: everybody and got away with it. The national and domestic debt are mostly
: RMB debt (not foreign debts denominated in usd, eur....) which can be
: digested by the PBOC by doing QE or the ongoing debt to equity conversion,
: and the capital in/outflow is tightly controlled which means the massive
| L***6
发帖数: 8307 | 4 贡献个屁 老子就是图个痛快 擦
【在 C*****5 的大作中提到】
: 码这么多字有点吃饱了撑的。没人会看的。对人类历史进程贡献为零。
:
: street
| C*****5
发帖数: 8812 | 5 你高兴就好
【在 L***6 的大作中提到】
: 贡献个屁 老子就是图个痛快 擦
| W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 6
【在 L***6 的大作中提到】
: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGHmk4UeK_w
: 虽然是政治性的东西 Gordon Chang那一套 但是去过剩产能确实引起了低收入阶层的生
: 存困难 太多的就业岗位和高污染的能源，建筑行业捆绑 就连废旧金属回收都养活了很
: 多农村人 现在产业结构调整 真是很无奈的 国内已经严重过剩 一带一路貌似也是规模
: 很有限 毕竟大家都不想得罪美帝 很多合同不了了之了。。。 输出过剩产能解决不了
: 多少问题 现在面临的就是巨额的地方债务 无效投资 和巨量的高能耗高污染行业的大
: 规模失业问题
: 中国经济下行 主要是二元经济中的基础建设和房地产这一元迅速在萎缩 剩下另一元--
: 低端制造和出口在苦苦挣扎 但又在面临日美撤资促使制造业回迁 加上孟加拉这些人口
: 大国的竞争 所以这时候人民币贬值就很必要了
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