j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 1 请教大牛们一下，困惑了两个季度了
在跟进BAUPOST GROUP 的13F filling, seth klarman 是做value investing的。
但他的holdings看不出任何线索，LNG，VSAT，都是基本目前没有现金流，而且需要
lump sum capital expenditure。他的holdings从报表的角度看不出投资价值的。
他可能从什么角度下的注? future cash flow forecasting? 这个预测不会比投资
growth stock 强啊 | q****p
发帖数: 10 | 2 My two cents below. Good to see someone following Klarman as well.
Some of Klarman's key tenets are: "absolute return", "uncorrelated return",
"downside protection" (or margin of safety) & "no constraint on asset class".
Been said, my guess for these energy plays are mainly cyclicality play,
which means Baupost might be pricing them against “normal time” valuation
and betting the industry will eventually return to its normal profitability
and the market will return to its normal valuation. These, look to me, like
typical value plays. As for VSAT, I’m not familiar with that particular
business, however one thing might be relevant is that 13F only reports longs
. So one position you see in one’s 13F could be part of a paired position (
convert arb, stub trades, etc.). And given his “wide” asset class spectrum
, I will not be surprised if he adopts these type of paired positions.
Lastly, it’s almost certain that Baupost picked up these business at their
most distressed valuation, and to value investors like Klarman, even a bad
business could be a good investment as long as you can pick it up at a low
enough price. Maybe the liquidation value is higher than the price they paid. | j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 3 wow,谢谢大牛
经常在这颗瓜子，扔块砖，引出了玉。
大牛也常来颗瓜子啊
VSAT 看不透，也没多花时间 |
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