c******a
发帖数: 4400 | 1 switch一个月在美国就卖了90万套了，第一个周就销售了一百五十万，中国还没开始卖
呢。全世界一个季度卖五百万套这算是很conservative的估计了吧。我看了看tegra X1
的价格第三方卖192。就算卖给nintendo 60刀一个，这算下来一个季度就是3个亿了。
上面的数字都是保守估计吧。这个市场根本和其他的N产品没有竞争，原来也没有染指
过。算是拓宽市场啃了AMD一块
之前我曾说过对1080 Ti和Ti Xp的需求不会少的，我想买1080 Ti的时候都断货，但现
在知道Xp要出了我又决定组里等XP了，连出新品可能确实压制了旧品的销售，也是为了
压制amd。新品又常没货。所以有些人觉得销售降低？但需求在那里的。
再说TPU，其实TPU对GPU主要影响是要调低对GOOGLE自己的搜索服务器上赚的收入了。
但这块要吃
进去当然是好，但原本CPU时代就根本没有吃到过，本来也不是希冀太大吧？之前赚的
钱有
多少是这上面的？给第三方服务的AI服务器还是得上N家产品。卖骚和watson的服务器
也都还得买N家。狗家自己train模型也还得买N家。再说了TPU是和人家比能耗。相同
density下performance差太多了，搞不好搜索组还不一定想用TPU。 |
c******a
发帖数: 4400 | 2 再说说打仗的影响：未来各国军方肯定是在AI上要疯狂投资的。军方设备肯定是要整最
新最牛逼的设备的。GPU问题是density有限，所以对性能要求高的情愿多出钱，要求每
个性能尽量高
而SWITCH这种收入让tegra line做牛逼了未来移动设备可用的地方太多了。不光是汽车
。smart home，各种新型机器人，都需要 |
F****s
发帖数: 3761 | 3 不是未来吧，是过去一直如此吧。民用高科技都是军方科技库拿出些不重要的来发展生
产力的。
btw，军方不可能用Nvidia的产品，高温高撞击，或者一个电磁冲击波，就个屁了。
我们研发当年购买设备的公司确实有的被军方收购了，之后再也不卖任何产品给民用市
场。
【在 c******a 的大作中提到】
: 再说说打仗的影响：未来各国军方肯定是在AI上要疯狂投资的。军方设备肯定是要整最
: 新最牛逼的设备的。GPU问题是density有限，所以对性能要求高的情愿多出钱，要求每
: 个性能尽量高
: 而SWITCH这种收入让tegra line做牛逼了未来移动设备可用的地方太多了。不光是汽车
: 。smart home，各种新型机器人，都需要
|
C*****5
发帖数: 8812 | 4 "军方不可能用Nvidia的产品",老马这个计算鸡脖士连google都不会用，LOL
【在 F****s 的大作中提到】
: 不是未来吧，是过去一直如此吧。民用高科技都是军方科技库拿出些不重要的来发展生
: 产力的。
: btw，军方不可能用Nvidia的产品，高温高撞击，或者一个电磁冲击波，就个屁了。
: 我们研发当年购买设备的公司确实有的被军方收购了，之后再也不卖任何产品给民用市
: 场。
|
c******a
发帖数: 4400 | 5 Nintendo Switch Global Sales Hit 2.4M Units In First Month [REPORT]
http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/nintendo-switch-first-month-global-sales-hit-2-4m-units-report/
As you can see, this is only 1 month, and China and many countries haven't
got started yet, and it's not even holiday/summer seasons. 5M a quarter will
be a conservative estimate in the first quarter
What price does N sell GPU to Nintendo? It seems a $40 price has been
assumed here
http://www.ubergizmo.com/2016/10/nvidia-earn-320-million-from-nintendo-switch/
Annually if we assume 8 M annual sales in 2017 (starting from March). This
is ~$400M a year and $100M a quarter. Right there is 7% new revenue compared
to 4Q16 sales of $1.4B. This is very conservative.
What if Sony/Microsoft turns to NV for graphics?? Why not? At $40-60 a piece
, does it make a difference which brand it uses? |
m*****n
发帖数: 1631 | 6 Switch电池做动力，同playstation/xbox不在同一个市场。
will
compared
【在 c******a 的大作中提到】
: Nintendo Switch Global Sales Hit 2.4M Units In First Month [REPORT]
: http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/nintendo-switch-first-month-global-sales-hit-2-4m-units-report/
: As you can see, this is only 1 month, and China and many countries haven't
: got started yet, and it's not even holiday/summer seasons. 5M a quarter will
: be a conservative estimate in the first quarter
: What price does N sell GPU to Nintendo? It seems a $40 price has been
: assumed here
: http://www.ubergizmo.com/2016/10/nvidia-earn-320-million-from-nintendo-switch/
: Annually if we assume 8 M annual sales in 2017 (starting from March). This
: is ~$400M a year and $100M a quarter. Right there is 7% new revenue compared
|
h****n
发帖数: 3447 | 7 The most recent downgrade by Pacific Crest saying the NVDA will have $0.10
EPS negative impact due to lower margin from Nintendo Switch.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Pacific+Crest+Downgrades+
NVIDIA+%28NVDA%29+to+Underweight%2C+Sees+Downside+To+%2490/12739724.html
看样子这些分析师也不知道自己在说什么。呵呵
will
compared
【在 c******a 的大作中提到】
: Nintendo Switch Global Sales Hit 2.4M Units In First Month [REPORT]
: http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/nintendo-switch-first-month-global-sales-hit-2-4m-units-report/
: As you can see, this is only 1 month, and China and many countries haven't
: got started yet, and it's not even holiday/summer seasons. 5M a quarter will
: be a conservative estimate in the first quarter
: What price does N sell GPU to Nintendo? It seems a $40 price has been
: assumed here
: http://www.ubergizmo.com/2016/10/nvidia-earn-320-million-from-nintendo-switch/
: Annually if we assume 8 M annual sales in 2017 (starting from March). This
: is ~$400M a year and $100M a quarter. Right there is 7% new revenue compared
|
m*****n
发帖数: 1631 | 8 Pacific Crest和网上某些人类似，每个季度都鼓吹一遍NVDA崩溃论
【在 h****n 的大作中提到】
: The most recent downgrade by Pacific Crest saying the NVDA will have $0.10
: EPS negative impact due to lower margin from Nintendo Switch.
: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Pacific+Crest+Downgrades+
: NVIDIA+%28NVDA%29+to+Underweight%2C+Sees+Downside+To+%2490/12739724.html
: 看样子这些分析师也不知道自己在说什么。呵呵
:
: will
: compared
|
p**f
发帖数: 3549 | 9 Nintendo switch这个市场对NV是新的，想不明白，多卖了些片子，反而margin会变低
。NV根本就没多招多少人，因为Tegra片子一直在做，flow都是现成的。。。
现在的股票分析师太tmd水了。还有这个BMO的烙印跪舔AMD还有一众模拟芯片股。。。
狼来了喊三遍，就没人信了。人也就当放P了。
http://www.investors.com/news/technology/chip-stocks-at-peak-valuations-nvidia-has-most-downside-analyst-says/
“That list includes five chip stocks with outperform ratings: Analog
Devices (ADI), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Microsemi (MSCC), Texas
Instruments (TXN) and Xilinx (XLNX).
He rates graphics chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) as underperform because it has the
most downside risk. Srivastava has a price target of 85 on Nvidia.”
【在 h****n 的大作中提到】
: The most recent downgrade by Pacific Crest saying the NVDA will have $0.10
: EPS negative impact due to lower margin from Nintendo Switch.
: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Pacific+Crest+Downgrades+
: NVIDIA+%28NVDA%29+to+Underweight%2C+Sees+Downside+To+%2490/12739724.html
: 看样子这些分析师也不知道自己在说什么。呵呵
:
: will
: compared
|
c******a
发帖数: 4400 | 10 有什么原因N家不比A家好吗？就算低一个档次，同一个价位的N产品也能秒Ryzen吧
【在 m*****n 的大作中提到】
: Switch电池做动力，同playstation/xbox不在同一个市场。
:
: will
: compared
|
m*****n
发帖数: 1631 | 11 playstation 或 xbox用的SOC是“CPU + GPU + 一大堆IO”
【在 c******a 的大作中提到】
: 有什么原因N家不比A家好吗？就算低一个档次，同一个价位的N产品也能秒Ryzen吧
|
