w****o 发帖数: 2260 | 1 这厮预测明年加息4次,这说明加息步伐加快。有好戏看了。
http://fortune.com/2017/11/20/goldman-sachs-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2018/
Goldman Sachs Predicts That the Fed Will Hike Interest Rates Four Times in
2018
(NEW YORK) – Goldman Sachs said it expects a tight U.S. labor market and
more normal inflation picture will lead the Federal Reserve to hike interest
rates four times next year.
“The U.S. economy heads into 2018 with strong growth momentum and an
unemployment rate already below levels that Fed officials view as
sustainable,” Goldman‘s economists wrote in note dated Friday.
Four hikes are more than Wall Street has been expecting for 2018. In a
Reuters poll, Wall Street’s top banks saw the Fed raising borrowing costs
three times in 2018.
For more on the Federal Reserve, see Fortune’s video:
Here’s Your Federal Reserve 101
Plus what you need to know about interest rates.
Play Video
The U.S. central bank has raised rates twice this year and currently
forecasts another hike in its benchmark lending rate from its current target
range of 1.00 percent to 1.25 percent by the end of 2017.
The economy’s momentum will be helped by reconstruction following recent U.
S. hurricanes and also by tax cuts being proposed, the Goldman economists
wrote, noting that they have raised their Gross Domestic Product growth
forecast for 2018 to 2.5 percent and lowered their unemployment rate
forecast to 3.7 percent by end-2018 and to 3.5 percent by end-2019.
The U.S. unemployment rate fell to near a 17-year low of 4.1 percent in
October, from 4.2 percent in the prior month.
“The strength is becoming ‘too much of a good thing’ and containing
further overheating will become a more urgent priority in 2018 and beyond,”
the Goldman note said. | F****s 发帖数: 3761 | | c******a 发帖数: 4400 | | s**w 发帖数: 499 | 4 高盛预测的是明年经济增长强劲超过市场预期,失业率低于市场预期,从未引起FED加
大升息力度。
在这个senario中经济增长和失业率下降对股市的刺激远远高于升息对股市的副作用。
如果你查查过去历次大牛市,每一次都伴随着经济强劲增长和FED不断升息这两个特征。
所以高盛预测的是明年会是一个大牛市。这是托盘而不是砸盘。 | n*******s 发帖数: 17267 | 5 有啥好奇怪的,哥的猜测是从这里在两三个加息期间大盘会到高点,剩下还能加几次要
看经济如何走,这里胡猜的话还可以加三次左右,这期间大盘高位震荡,奔着嗝屁而去。
明年到底加几次,高盛也是瞎掰,这跟砸盘有个鸟关系 | r******t 发帖数: 8967 | |
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