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发帖数: 2318 | 1 IBD的基本预测是涨是大概率事件（15 out of 19),但是涨幅要比17年小得多。
Back in December and at the start of the new year, IBD explained why
stock market gains in 2018 could be smaller than in 2017, with more
corrections during the year.
The S&P 500 rallied 19.4% last year, double the historical norm. It was one
of only 19 times that the index had returned more than 15% since 1962. After
such a strong year, stocks typically rise but not as much. In only one of
the 19 cases was there a stronger gain (1997), while there were only four
times when the next year was negative. The average gain was 7.5%.
Meanwhile, few signs indicate a bear market is looming. Bear markets
are typically associated with a recession. That seems unlikely in the near
term, with economic growth strong across the globe for the first time in
several years.
While bond yields are rising as a result, inflation is still low. The
Federal Reserve aims to raise rates toward more normal levels. But the Fed,
like other central bankers, does not want to unnerve financial markets.
Earnings are robust, with more S&P 500 companies beating profit views than
at any time since 2009. Companies are hiking 2018 earnings forecasts on the
new Trump tax cuts.
Some people say we're due for the nine-year bull market to end, but stock
market cycles don't follow a set calendar. Bear markets typically are
preceded by a sharp ascent. Good examples include the tail end of the dot-
com rally in early 2000 and the housing bubble run-up to 2007.
While January 2018 was a strong month, for much of last year the major
averages were just grinding higher. And there were few climax runs in
leading stocks. Square (SQ) exhibited some climax-like characteristics, but
that stock was turbocharged as part of the Bitcoin climax top in December.
Another harbinger of a bear market — high margin debt — also is
relatively low. However, the rise of double- and triple-leverage ETFs means
that margin levels may not reflect speculation and investor exposure as well
as before.
If the market had moved into a full-blown bear — often defined as stock
market down 20% or more — you'd see sustained heavy selling, breaking
through multiple support areas in heavy volume. Rebound attempts would be
short-lived. The vast majority of stocks would fall, with leading stocks
breaking down en masse. |
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