w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 1 转载
Summary
Netflix is absurdly overvalued.
Even using very optimistic assumptions for growth and margins, NFLX may
still be 30-50% overpriced.
NFLX's rising content costs per subscriber will likely continue to
hamper free cash flows for the foreseeable future.
Based on more realistic assumptions, NFLX could be 60-80% overpriced.
Valuation doesn't matter; until it does. The path to being a great
investor is to ignore the short term and focus on long-term risk and reward.
The markets don't always correct immediately, but over the long term,
gravity can knock high-flying stocks out of the sky.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is in a giant bubble right now. I feel 100% confident
making that assertion. The upside to owning the stock at this point is
virtually nil. There's almost a 0% chance the company could conceivably
meet the market's current valuation for it. Conversely, the downside
risks are huge. In a pessimistic scenario, the stock could lose 80-90% of
its value. Netflix is a great company. I can sing the praises of Reed
Hastings all day long. As a stock, however, buying NFLX in March 2018 is
insane. |
B*******s
发帖数: 403 | 2 The sector leaders will never ever be under valued or reasonably valued.
Period. |
w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 3 奶飞今天要下探310，师母已呆
：The sector leaders will never ever be under valued or reasonably valued.
：Period. |
l*****r
发帖数: 2123 | |
d******k
发帖数: 76 | 5 早就说过，而且我坚持认为NFLX本质上就是一个租借DVD看电影的店，只不过是可以
online streaming. 根本就不是什么媒体公司，更没有自己的cable network；HBO,
AMZN 可以轻松的干掉NFLX |
w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 6 For short term, 奶飞 may go to 360 or 280, nobody knows. Sell calls @425+
is a sure way to win.
：The sector leaders will never ever be under valued or reasonably valued.
：Period. |
s*****l
发帖数: 798 | 7 写的都是个鸡毛 肤浅的一塌糊涂
奶飞今年400-500稳稳的 |
H*****D
发帖数: 4462 | 8
reward.
【在 w******g 的大作中提到】
: 转载
: Summary
: Netflix is absurdly overvalued.
: Even using very optimistic assumptions for growth and margins, NFLX may
: still be 30-50% overpriced.
: NFLX's rising content costs per subscriber will likely continue to
: hamper free cash flows for the foreseeable future.
: Based on more realistic assumptions, NFLX could be 60-80% overpriced.
: Valuation doesn't matter; until it does. The path to being a great
: investor is to ignore the short term and focus on long-term risk and reward.
|
