f*******2
发帖数: 149 | 1 Sorry I cannot type Chinese here.
I am making some predictions here, let's see how wrong I am in 2 years:
1) I personally think the recession/financial crisis will very likely to
come between Mar 2019 - Sept 2019. Even if stock market crashes, the lowest
point should not be too much lower from the highest point of 2007
2) stock market has dropped significantly recently, in short term it might
go up or down, but I believe the overall trend of 2019 is going down, the
lowest point will show up either in March of 2019, or after Aug of 2019. The
fundamental economy is good, it's not like we have an obvious bubble this
time, but the big tech companies are a little over-rated at this point, and
plus the slow-down of growing economy, plus the tension between China and US
trade-war (I believe trump will not give up trade war easily, in a long run
, it can only go worse).
3) housing market price has gone down significantly due to the tax reform.
This already made housing price goes down about 10%-20% compared with 2016,
2017 in the east coast. Due to the reason mentioned above, stock market
decline, and slow
economy growth, I believe the lowest point of housing price is at end of
2019, or early of 2020. | d********e
发帖数: 321 | 2 tag for verification in 2019
lowest
The
and
【在 f*******2 的大作中提到】
: Sorry I cannot type Chinese here.
: I am making some predictions here, let's see how wrong I am in 2 years:
: 1) I personally think the recession/financial crisis will very likely to
: come between Mar 2019 - Sept 2019. Even if stock market crashes, the lowest
: point should not be too much lower from the highest point of 2007
: 2) stock market has dropped significantly recently, in short term it might
: go up or down, but I believe the overall trend of 2019 is going down, the
: lowest point will show up either in March of 2019, or after Aug of 2019. The
: fundamental economy is good, it's not like we have an obvious bubble this
: time, but the big tech companies are a little over-rated at this point, and
| f*****g
发帖数: 34 | 3 recession/financial crisis？ The fundamental economy is good？
逻辑不清。 经济可能增长没有那么快，有些科技股可能估值有些高。仅此而已。 | f*******2
发帖数: 149 | 4 Although the fundamental economy is good, there are some factors might
trigger a recession or financial crisis - trade war, the over-rated high
tech stocks (Tesla for example), financial crisis of another country or
countries,
retailer sales are more and more replaced by online
shopping, this will not decrease their overall business profit, however,
due to lower demand of retail stores and lower demand of buying living
apartment, the drop of both commercial housing and living housing could
cause banks who give out loans losing money (debts). Plus the financial
crisis is already over-due, those could all be the factors of triggering
recession. If there would be a recession, I believe this time the recession
will not take super long
to recover because it's not like 2008 or 2000 where there are big bubbles.
Now we do have bubbles but not big bubbles.
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: recession/financial crisis？ The fundamental economy is good？
: 逻辑不清。 经济可能增长没有那么快，有些科技股可能估值有些高。仅此而已。
| p********t
发帖数: 9 | 5 The fundamental being of Economy is as crappy as it can get at this time
point in stupid human history
But the irony part is that you will see another all time high of equity in
2019. Mark this word. | k****y
发帖数: 781 | |
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