l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 1 2007年, wfc的杠杆率是15，2020年杠杆率只有8 | w******n
发帖数: 1 | | x********u
发帖数: 1150 | 3 Wfc 的问题是reputation writedown, reputation重建可不是一年两年 十年都不一定
够。其次, 风险业务的盈利能力不如jpm bac.
记得good to great里对wfc的推崇。呵呵，没有不变的公司 | t****7
发帖数: 11132 | 4 让别人不要做空美股，自己却在4月一直出货，90岁的人了。 | w****q
发帖数: 712 | 5 lol... you made my day :-)
【在 w******n 的大作中提到】
: 然后他卖了。。。
| x********u
发帖数: 1150 | 6 再透露一下. 油价低位会导致oil debt default. Wells的敞口不小。
As of the end of March, Wells Fargo had $14.3 billion of oil and gas loans
outstanding, according to filings. | H******C
发帖数: 700 | 7 把巴菲特当成反指就行。我去年信巴菲特了买了些 KHC，后来割肉了。 | x********u
发帖数: 1150 | 8 对巴老我还是有敬意的 那么大的盘子 能保本就很难。但是在个股上 巴老失误的案例
不少 割的wmt 保洁 jnj homedepot. 哪个不是大牛股？ | x********u
发帖数: 1150 | 9 Khc的问题是debt太多 产品线跟不上时代要求。巴老喜欢吃的package foods 年轻人都
当成垃圾 | S***i
发帖数: 1 | | N*****d
发帖数: 9872 | 11 l
巴匪太坏了
The analysts lowered their rating on Wells Fargo (ticker: WFC) to Sell from
Neutral,saying the bank isn't making enough money to protect it against the
hit it is likely to take from the pandemic in terms of revenue and loan
losses. The team lowered its forecasts for earnings in 2020 and 2021 by 47%
and 24%, respectively, in a Monday research report.
In a broader review of large and regional banks, UBS cut forecasts for 2020
by 25%, on average. The cut for 2021 was 18%.
"[A] low earnings base means incremental revenue and expense headwinds have
a disproportionately large percentage point impact on earnings," Saul
Martinez, analyst at UBS Securities, said of Wells Fargo.
Wells Fargo has sold off more aggressively than the banking sector, falling
50% since the beginning of the year, while the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (BKX)
is off nearly 40%. There are reasons why the bank may continue to fare worse
than its peers.
What makes Wells Fargo different, Martinez notes, is that the bank is still
prevented from expanding its balance sheet, increasing the amount of loans
it makes, due to a cap the Federal Reserve placed on the bank stemming from
the bank's 2016 fake-account scandal.
The bank was recently allowed to make loans under the Paycheck Protection
Program but it is not allowed to keep the fees it earns. Martinez expects
that Wells Fargo's net interest income will fall 6.5% in 2020.
Martinez also dinged Wells Fargo for having a lower allowance for credit
losses than other banks under the recently adopted Current Expected Credit
Losses framework.
While Wells Fargo was one of the bigger banks in Martinez's coverage group
to be downgraded, he noted that current loan-loss reserves for the sector
are likely insufficient, given that commercial credit quality is expected to
continue to deteriorate. Cumulative losses for commercial and industrial
loans ranged from 3.6% to 3.8% in the nine quarters following the last three
recessions, but forecasts from the banks that have provided detailed
disclosure on their expected C&I losses have ranged from 1% to 1.7%.
"Ultimately, though, we think banks will need to increase reserves
materially as the magnitude of C&I losses becomes visible," Martinez wrote.
Wells Fargo shares were down 2% in Monday's trading while the S&P 500 was
down 0.3%. |
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