a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 1 妈的， 这水平都能灌到bloomberg了？
写完第二天，就被市场操得生活不能自理了。
还不如在股版胡灌的我们，哈哈哈
Oil Prices Are Only Going in One Direction
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/oil-prices-only-going-one-060002748.html
Julian Lee
Sun, November 8, 2020, 1:00 AM EST·4 min read
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- This was supposed to be a time when things were
getting closer to normal for OPEC. A recovery in oil demand after the first
wave of the pandemic, coupled with a deep slump in U.S. production, was
meant to leave the world needing more of its members’ crude. But it isn’t
turning out like that.
Two things have conspired against the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries. The coronavirus outbreak is threatening to put an already
stalling recovery in oil demand into reverse. At the same time, supply is
rising from a variety of sources over which it has no control.
Back in June, OPEC projected that demand for crude from its members would be
more than 1 million barrels a day higher than it had forecast in December
— before Covid-19 even had a name. By October, it had slashed that estimate
by 3.75 million barrels a day, or about as much as is pumped by the group’
s second-largest member, Iraq.
The world’s failure to deal effectively with the pandemic has seen
countries across Europe — from the U.K. and France to Greece — impose a
fresh round of restrictions on their populations, including measures such as
closing bars, restaurants and non-essential shops and limiting travel.
There are concerns, too, that virus cases could spike again in the U.S.
after a frenzy of election rallies and post-poll protests, prompting more
stay-at-home orders and sapping oil demand there.
On Thursday, England entered a four-week lockdown. Although the restrictions
aren’t as severe as those imposed in March — schools and some businesses,
for example, remain open — traffic on city streets has already fallen
sharply. It is unlikely to drop as far as it did during the first lockdown,
as those who can travel shun public transport in favor of private cars, but
the decline will still have a measurable impact on oil consumption.
Cold winter weather may help to support fuel demand, but little of that will
be in the form of oil. Liquid fuel is not widely used for heating in the U.
K. In Germany, where it is more common, consumers have already stocked up
ahead of winter — although they may top up tanks ahead of a carbon tax that
comes into effect in January. The government there imposed a partial
lockdown on Monday.
Even in Asia, where economic activity and oil demand is returning more
quickly to pre-pandemic levels, producers are still waiting to see the full
benefit. Japan, the region’s third-biggest oil consumer behind China and
India, has slashed crude imports by more than one-third since the start of
2019. Imports from the five big crude exporting countries in the Persian
Gulf have fallen by almost half.
Its oil imports are likely to remain sluggish near current levels for the
rest of year, because refiners have had to import contracted crude volumes
despite low fuel demand. That’s resulted in a build-up of stockpiles that
will take time to draw down.
The OPEC oil producers are also facing unexpected competition, both from
outside the group and within it.
In the U.S., production is expected to pick up in the short term as drilling
rates rise and hurricanes abate. A succession of storms crossing the Gulf
of Mexico have reduced output there by more than 500,000 barrels a day on
average since August 22.
What’s more, American oil exporters are making big inroads into one of OPEC
’s core markets — China. In September, the Asian nation imported more
crude from the U.S. than from anywhere else other than Saudi Arabia and
Russia. Shipments from Iraq, the country’s third-largest supplier last year
, have almost halved since May, while those from the U.S. have risen
sevenfold. Purchases for the rest of the year are likely to remain subdued
as private refiners have used up their 2020 import quotas.
As if that weren’t enough, OPEC member Libya, which is exempt from the
group’s output restrictions, is restoring production after opening export
ports that were idled by war for most of 2020. The country plans to export
more than 800,000 barrels a day of crude this month — about eight times as
much as it shipped in August. OPEC hasn’t yet factored that volume into its
calculations. The OPEC+ alliance, which unites the 13 OPEC members and nine
external allies (Mexico no longer plays a meaningful role after its refusal
to accept output cuts negotiated in April), must consider its next move.
The current plan is to ease output reductions on Jan. 1, adding another 1.9
million barrels a day to the market. It is increasingly clear that’s not
doable without sending oil prices spiraling lower.
With members already chafing at the restrictions, the group’s next meeting
at the start of December is likely to be a tense affair.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board
or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg. Previously he worked as a
senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.
For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion
Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P. | h*******4
发帖数: 1 | 2 是啊，一个财经媒体整的跟娱乐媒体似的，没有理想思考，全是语不惊人死不休，博眼
球的玩意 | a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 3 原油供应再多，挖油也是有成本。
大庆油田几年前的成本（加上管理成本）就是65美元一桶，刚出出井口就要
40美元了。石油公司不是开善堂的， 不可能一直作慈善倒贴，赔钱供应原油的，想都
不要想。原油市场被一帮美国的页岩油气公司玩坏了，这帮公司死干净了，
后面就会正常化了。
40美元一桶的话，美国页岩油气公司的破产潮，肯定还要继续。 | a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 4 妈的， 这水平都能灌到bloomberg了？
写完第二天，就被市场操得生活不能自理了。
还不如在股版胡灌的我们，哈哈哈
Oil Prices Are Only Going in One Direction
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/oil-prices-only-going-one-060002748.html
Julian Lee
Sun, November 8, 2020, 1:00 AM EST·4 min read
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- This was supposed to be a time when things were
getting closer to normal for OPEC. A recovery in oil demand after the first
wave of the pandemic, coupled with a deep slump in U.S. production, was
meant to leave the world needing more of its members’ crude. But it isn’t
turning out like that.
Two things have conspired against the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries. The coronavirus outbreak is threatening to put an already
stalling recovery in oil demand into reverse. At the same time, supply is
rising from a variety of sources over which it has no control.
Back in June, OPEC projected that demand for crude from its members would be
more than 1 million barrels a day higher than it had forecast in December
— before Covid-19 even had a name. By October, it had slashed that estimate
by 3.75 million barrels a day, or about as much as is pumped by the group’
s second-largest member, Iraq.
The world’s failure to deal effectively with the pandemic has seen
countries across Europe — from the U.K. and France to Greece — impose a
fresh round of restrictions on their populations, including measures such as
closing bars, restaurants and non-essential shops and limiting travel.
There are concerns, too, that virus cases could spike again in the U.S.
after a frenzy of election rallies and post-poll protests, prompting more
stay-at-home orders and sapping oil demand there.
On Thursday, England entered a four-week lockdown. Although the restrictions
aren’t as severe as those imposed in March — schools and some businesses,
for example, remain open — traffic on city streets has already fallen
sharply. It is unlikely to drop as far as it did during the first lockdown,
as those who can travel shun public transport in favor of private cars, but
the decline will still have a measurable impact on oil consumption.
Cold winter weather may help to support fuel demand, but little of that will
be in the form of oil. Liquid fuel is not widely used for heating in the U.
K. In Germany, where it is more common, consumers have already stocked up
ahead of winter — although they may top up tanks ahead of a carbon tax that
comes into effect in January. The government there imposed a partial
lockdown on Monday.
Even in Asia, where economic activity and oil demand is returning more
quickly to pre-pandemic levels, producers are still waiting to see the full
benefit. Japan, the region’s third-biggest oil consumer behind China and
India, has slashed crude imports by more than one-third since the start of
2019. Imports from the five big crude exporting countries in the Persian
Gulf have fallen by almost half.
Its oil imports are likely to remain sluggish near current levels for the
rest of year, because refiners have had to import contracted crude volumes
despite low fuel demand. That’s resulted in a build-up of stockpiles that
will take time to draw down.
The OPEC oil producers are also facing unexpected competition, both from
outside the group and within it.
In the U.S., production is expected to pick up in the short term as drilling
rates rise and hurricanes abate. A succession of storms crossing the Gulf
of Mexico have reduced output there by more than 500,000 barrels a day on
average since August 22.
What’s more, American oil exporters are making big inroads into one of OPEC
’s core markets — China. In September, the Asian nation imported more
crude from the U.S. than from anywhere else other than Saudi Arabia and
Russia. Shipments from Iraq, the country’s third-largest supplier last year
, have almost halved since May, while those from the U.S. have risen
sevenfold. Purchases for the rest of the year are likely to remain subdued
as private refiners have used up their 2020 import quotas.
As if that weren’t enough, OPEC member Libya, which is exempt from the
group’s output restrictions, is restoring production after opening export
ports that were idled by war for most of 2020. The country plans to export
more than 800,000 barrels a day of crude this month — about eight times as
much as it shipped in August. OPEC hasn’t yet factored that volume into its
calculations. The OPEC+ alliance, which unites the 13 OPEC members and nine
external allies (Mexico no longer plays a meaningful role after its refusal
to accept output cuts negotiated in April), must consider its next move.
The current plan is to ease output reductions on Jan. 1, adding another 1.9
million barrels a day to the market. It is increasingly clear that’s not
doable without sending oil prices spiraling lower.
With members already chafing at the restrictions, the group’s next meeting
at the start of December is likely to be a tense affair.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board
or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg. Previously he worked as a
senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.
For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion
Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P. | h*******4
发帖数: 1 | 5 是啊，一个财经媒体整的跟娱乐媒体似的，没有理想思考，全是语不惊人死不休，博眼
球的玩意 | a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 6 原油供应再多，挖油也是有成本。
大庆油田几年前的成本（加上管理成本）就是65美元一桶，刚出出井口就要
40美元了。石油公司不是开善堂的， 不可能一直作慈善倒贴，赔钱供应原油的，想都
不要想。原油市场被一帮美国的页岩油气公司玩坏了，这帮公司死干净了，
后面就会正常化了。
40美元一桶的话，美国页岩油气公司的破产潮，肯定还要继续。 | a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 7 妈的，我all in XOM时， Bloomberg 的垃圾文章说，油价只会下跌，
不会上涨。
什么傻逼玩意啊？ | a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 8 再回顾一下,我当年就看着不爽的那篇垃圾文章.
哥的分析文章不要钱,还比很多要钱的文章管用.
文章出来的时间, 11/08/2020; 当时的原油价格大概在35刀/桶.
这哥们各种拍胸脯, 说原油价格只会去一个方向,那就是下跌,
blah,blah了一大通.光在yahoo,就有4 million 的 view,
结果呢?
方向完全搞反了, 油价从那里反转,一路向北不回头了.
哥就是那时候all in 的xom.当然也没赚多少,比各位股版的大牛逼
还是差了很多. | g*****s
发帖数: 1288 | 9 美国通货膨胀这么厉害，石油美元计价不涨就是跌，凭什么啊
first
【在 a*******m 的大作中提到】
: 妈的， 这水平都能灌到bloomberg了？
: 写完第二天，就被市场操得生活不能自理了。
: 还不如在股版胡灌的我们，哈哈哈
: Oil Prices Are Only Going in One Direction
: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/oil-prices-only-going-one-060002748.html
: Julian Lee
: Sun, November 8, 2020, 1:00 AM EST·4 min read
: (Bloomberg Opinion) -- This was supposed to be a time when things were
: getting closer to normal for OPEC. A recovery in oil demand after the first
: wave of the pandemic, coupled with a deep slump in U.S. production, was
| S***m
发帖数: 172 | 10 现在这情况，石油暴涨了就是全面要崩的节奏了，对石油行业也不好。大家都互相牵制着
，半死不活维持着，还能久一点，稳一点
: 美国通货膨胀这么厉害，石油美元计价不涨就是跌，凭什么啊
: first
【在 g*****s 的大作中提到】
: 美国通货膨胀这么厉害，石油美元计价不涨就是跌，凭什么啊
:
: first
|
|
