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发帖数: 11530 | 1 Gold Crashes Below $1,800
Editor OilPrice.com
Fri, November 27, 2020, 11:00 AM CST
This year has been proving to be a gold speculator and investor’s dream
after the yellow metal rallied hard to hit historical highs thanks to a
perfect storm of a global pandemic, massive government stimulus packages,
weakening dollar, and a stock market bull run that had finally run out of
gas. The torrid rally represented the sharpest gain the metal has mustered
in more than a decade.
Wall Street hedge funds have been extremely bullish on gold, with some
eyeing prices of $3,000 and even $5,000 per ounce.
To wit, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that it expects gold to hit $3,
000 by early 2022 while Citigroup and billionaire Thomas Kaplan, founder of
New York-based asset management firm Electrum Group, believed that $5,000
was in the cross hairs.
But now there’s growing evidence that the gold rally could be done for now,
and those lofty targets will remain out of reach for gold punters.
Gold prices have pulled back 13% after touching an all-time high of $2,075
in August, as a barrage of potential Covid-19 vaccine candidates continues
to give the world hope that the worst could be in the rearview mirror.
Vaccine optimism
At least two successful COVID-19 vaccines now mark a major turning point in
the battle against one of our biggest existential crises.
Two weeks ago, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) reported that
their joint mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, had
demonstrated nearly 95% efficacy in preventing Covid-19 infections in ~44,
000 test patients. A few days ago, the companies confirmed those numbers in
their final analysis, including being 94% effective in those over 65 years
old.
Related: Can Big Oil Make Carbon Capture Mainstream?
The good news came with a small caveat though: Pfizer's vaccine needs a much
cooler temperature of -94 degrees Fahrenheit (-70° C) and up to -109
degrees Fahrenheit for shipment for the vaccine to remain viable, which
could pose a major challenge in some locations.
So news that Moderna’s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Covid-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273,
has demonstrated similar efficacy as the Pfizer vaccine but remains stable
at more manageable temperatures of 2° to 8°C (36° to 46°F), or roughly
the same operating temperature of a standard home or medical refrigerator,
for at least a month, was definitely great news.
More encouraging: Moderna has reported that its Covid-19 vaccine will cost $
25 and $37 per dose depending on the amount ordered, roughly in the ballpark
of a common flu shot which costs $10 and $50.
Even more encouraging news: The EU is likely to fast track approval for the
Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, meaning they could enter mainstream
distribution in its jurisdiction in a matter of weeks. Europe is
experiencing the biggest second Covid-19 wave with Germany, Poland, France,
and Spain having gone back to lockdown in a bid to stem the spread of the
deadly virus.
Whereas the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are based on Messenger RNA
technology, which is not only speedier to manufacture and develop but is
also well-suited to rapid adaptation.
Unfortunately, messenger RNA, or mRNA, is also delicate, requiring careful
cold storage and handling that complicate distributions.
The great news: There are several other vaccines that could be better suited
for more widespread distribution.
Related: Why The Vaccine Oil Rally Won't Last
AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) and the University of Oxford have reported that
their vaccine is 62-90% effective depending on dosage, but is cheaper than
the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine and can also be stored at higher temperatures
making it more accessible for lower income nations. The AstraZeneca
candidate is an adenovirus-vector platform that gives people an inactivated
virus to stimulate an immune response making it more stable than Pfizer and
Moderna's "mRNA-based" vaccines.
CureVac's (NASDAQ:CVAC) says its CVnCoV vaccine is stable for three months
at +5 Celsius, or the standard refrigerator temperature. The vaccine remains
stable for up to ready-to-use room temperature for 24 hours.
Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline's have announced that their two-dose recombinant
protein vaccine can be stored between 2°C- 8°C.
Johnson & Johnson also has a Covid-19 vaccine in the pipeline, which, if
successful, could be stable at refrigerated temperatures of 2°C - 8°C for
at least three months and up to two years at -20 °C.
In short, there seems to be no shortage of Covid-19 vaccine candidates that
are potentially even more stable than the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.
Gold price to watch: $ 1,800
With the short-term gold momentum decisively skewed to the downside, Chris
Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Technical Traders has advised traders to
keep an eye on the pivotal $1,800 price level. This support level could be
tested before the next big upleg, but could also open the floodgates for
gold to fall as low as $1,600 if it fails to hold.
With gold prices currently hovering slightly above this critical support
level, the bulls will be hoping that things don’t fall apart completely.
By Alex Kimani for Safehaven.com |
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