s****a
发帖数: 2918 | |
x******4
发帖数: 266 | |
i*******k
发帖数: 1 | 3 这个股已经破产，八月份归零。
【在 s****a 的大作中提到】
: 也是受疫情影响的股，有翻盘希望吗？
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 4 不是马上要重组吗
【在 i*******k 的大作中提到】
: 这个股已经破产，八月份归零。
|
P****R
发帖数: 22479 | |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 6 貌似chapter 11 and chapter 7 很大不同
【在 P****R 的大作中提到】
: 带Q的，全部是进坟墓的。
|
r*****e
发帖数: 7853 | 7 htz都被你们炒破产了，你们就手下留情，放了它吧
：也是受疫情影响的股，有翻盘希望吗？
【在 s****a 的大作中提到】
: 貌似chapter 11 and chapter 7 很大不同
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 9 很有意思，小上了一些。看好。
两个买方在bid, 最新估值6.2B, 很大可能老股东不会被wipe out。 谣传夏威夷租车
1000刀
一天，我看这估值还会往上涨。 |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 10 direct common stock investments of $2.9 billion, direct preferred stock
investments of $1.5 billion and a rights offering to raise $1.36 billion.看
来给老股票留了一半多的估值。
买家用这$2.9B,买股票， 无论是现价给个discount，或者溢价买，都会让老股票升值
。不排除另一家可能会counter bid again. crazy。 |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 11 我瞎猜会溢价买，也就是老古董的利益几乎不受损失，debt通过ch11后获得重组或减少。
注意，莫把本人想法当成投资建议。 |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 12 Hertz Bidding War Builds as Centerbridge Preps New Counteroffer
By Katherine Doherty
May 6, 2021, 1:57 pm pdt
Bloomberg |
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 13 小心变成chk
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: Hertz Bidding War Builds as Centerbridge Preps New Counteroffer
: By Katherine Doherty
: May 6, 2021, 1:57 pm pdt
: Bloomberg
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 14 如果你follow过chk得话，你回发现chk股东也是这样的wishful thinking,最后停止交
易的时候还卖$3一股
提到: 】
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 小心变成chk
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 15 现在的CHK和那个停了的CHKAQ啥关系？
没关注过CHK，够了下，现在的CHK是新的重组后的，原先大股东都被wipe out了。
提到: 】
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 如果你follow过chk得话，你回发现chk股东也是这样的wishful thinking,最后停止交
: 易的时候还卖$3一股
:
: 提到: 】
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 16 新股，和你这个一样，老股东全外婆，当时也是以为新下家会接盘，结果连preferred
stock都外婆。破产的时候基本都会理股东得，除非里面还有大fund没跑掉，这基本不
可能
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 现在的CHK和那个停了的CHKAQ啥关系？
: 没关注过CHK，够了下，现在的CHK是新的重组后的，原先大股东都被wipe out了。
:
: 提到: 】
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 17 谢谢提醒，看了下,hertz 最初的plan是wipe out 老股东，新的bid给HTZGQ 5 毛钱，
外加一个warrant。
Plan of Reorganization also includes an amendment. That includes the
complete payment of all secured and unsecured funded debt. It also would
provide holders of HTZGQ stock with 50 cents per share in cash. In addition
to that, it includes “10-year warrants for an aggregate of 10% of the
reorganized company or, for eligible stockholders, the possibility of
subscribing for shares of common stock in the rights offering.”
提到: 】
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 新股，和你这个一样，老股东全外婆，当时也是以为新下家会接盘，结果连preferred
: stock都外婆。破产的时候基本都会理股东得，除非里面还有大fund没跑掉，这基本不
: 可能
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 18 我刚才$3.56 全出了。据说星期一宣布谁赢。和接盘低价。万一真的0.6估计大跌。我
先撤。星期1再说。 |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 19 Best bid from knighthead has a value of about $2.60 (cash and warrants value
), so that's likely the bottom |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 21 Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or
side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.
com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional
rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the
gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/
tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/c24245fa-88e2-4dcc-a5b2-78d945970b1d
https://www.ft.com/content/c24245fa-88e2-4dcc-a5b2-78d945970b1d
The Knighthead plan raises enough cash to pay off all creditors in full
as well as make the cash payment to shareholders. Hertz’s shares have
rallied to $3.48 from a low this year of 66 cents, implying a current market
capitalisation exceeding $500m.
The bankruptcy court must approve the winning bidder, which will be followed
by a vote on the plan by Hertz claimants. The company is racing to lock in
a deal and exit the Chapter 11 process by the beginning of July, the start
of the company’s busiest season.
The favourable conditions in the capital markets have enabled the fevered
fight for Hertz.
“I can’t recall a better financing market,” William Derrough, Hertz’s
investment banker at Moelis & Co, said in court testimony in April. |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 22 $HTZGQ. Shareholders getting 8 bucks a share in new distributions |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 23 8块不少了，坐等25
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: $HTZGQ. Shareholders getting 8 bucks a share in new distributions
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 24 https://www.wsj.com/articles/hertz-bankruptcy-auction-yields-winner-to-back-
chapter-11-exit-11620825844
Investment firms Knighthead Capital Management LLC and Certares Management
LLC emerged as winners in a bankruptcy auction for Hertz Global Holdings Inc
. after a bidding war that had the rare outcome of providing chapter 11
recoveries for shareholders, people familiar with the matter said.
The winning bid that Hertz accepted provides for a distribution estimated at
close to $8 a share to the company’s current stockholders, these people
said, well above Tuesday’s closing price for the company’s shares of $3.69
. Some of that would be paid in cash, with warrants and reorganized equity
also accounting for some of the value.
The rental car provider, among the largest companies to file for chapter 11
during the pandemic, hopes to leave bankruptcy around the end of June.
Knighthead and Certares would be joined by others including Apollo Global
Management Inc. and a group of existing shareholders in taking control of
Hertz at a time when the travel industry is on an upswing, thanks to growing
coronavirus vaccination rates and pent up demand among vacationers.
The proposed distribution to current stockholders is a rarity. Corporate
bankruptcies, which usually don’t generate enough value to retire the debt,
or provide a recovery for equity. Initial offers from potential buyers of
Hertz in its bankruptcy offered nothing to shareholders |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 25 我刚才又买了点[email protected]。52 最近hospital trust比较热
back-
Inc
at
69
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hertz-bankruptcy-auction-yields-winner-to-back-
: chapter-11-exit-11620825844
: Investment firms Knighthead Capital Management LLC and Certares Management
: LLC emerged as winners in a bankruptcy auction for Hertz Global Holdings Inc
: . after a bidding war that had the rare outcome of providing chapter 11
: recoveries for shareholders, people familiar with the matter said.
: The winning bid that Hertz accepted provides for a distribution estimated at
: close to $8 a share to the company’s current stockholders, these people
: said, well above Tuesday’s closing price for the company’s shares of $3.69
: . Some of that would be paid in cash, with warrants and reorganized equity
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 27 也快破产了？
【在 s****a 的大作中提到】
: 我刚才又买了点[email protected]。52 最近hospital trust比较热
:
: back-
: Inc
: at
: 69
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 28 lol.
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 也快破产了？
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 29 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/hertz-shares-surge-by-more-than-50percent-
after-selecting-6-billion-turnaround-bid-.html
Apollo Global Management and a group of existing shareholders will join
Knighthead and Cetares in taking control of Hertz, which filed for
bankruptcy last May.
Under the proposal, which must be approved by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court,
Hertz’s Chapter 11 plan will be funded through direct common stock
investments from investors and others aggregating $2.78 billion, the
issuance of $1.5 billion of new preferred stock to Apollo and a fully
backstopped rights offering to the company’s existing shareholders to
purchase about $1.64 billion of additional common stock.
Shares of Hertz jumped by as much as 68% before retreating some throughout
the day. Its stock was trading at $5.78 a share as of 2.30 p.m. Wednesday,
up by about 58%. Its market cap is nearly $900 million.
The rental car firm was among the largest companies to file for Chapter 11
during the coronavirus pandemic after demand evaporated during lockdowns
last spring due to Covid-19. More than a year later, demand for rental cars
is outpacing supplies as the country reopens and some Americans continue to
rent vehicles over flying. |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | |
w***f
发帖数: 155 | 31 不知不觉到了7$了 冷汗
【在 s****a 的大作中提到】
: 也是受疫情影响的股，有翻盘希望吗？
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 32 谁让你早不买，喊了一个月了
【在 w***f 的大作中提到】
: 不知不觉到了7$了 冷汗
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 33 决定换新股了，电话broker，才发现很麻烦。有人已经exercise了吗？ |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 34 涨呀
【在 s****a 的大作中提到】
: 也是受疫情影响的股，有翻盘希望吗？
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 35 MLGB，价值股害死人，一个月了不动弹，时间成本太高了，鸡肋 |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 36 赫兹已经给机构发了邀请,请他们买新股，100m以上资产的fund有资格买。好像定价是$
10，机构基本以现价买。8月份出ch11。 |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 37 jun 30 getout ch 11
是$
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 赫兹已经给机构发了邀请,请他们买新股，100m以上资产的fund有资格买。好像定价是$
: 10，机构基本以现价买。8月份出ch11。
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 39 好吧，我拿到月底，等机构报拉到10
是$
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 赫兹已经给机构发了邀请,请他们买新股，100m以上资产的fund有资格买。好像定价是$
: 10，机构基本以现价买。8月份出ch11。
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 40 同是租车公司AVIS（ticker：CAR） 93 了，这个htz才7
是$
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 赫兹已经给机构发了邀请,请他们买新股，100m以上资产的fund有资格买。好像定价是$
: 10，机构基本以现价买。8月份出ch11。
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 41 June 10 (Reuters) - Hertz Global Holdings Inc
* HERTZ'S PLAN OF REORGANIZATION CONFIRMED BY BANKRUPTCY COURT
* HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC -COMPANY ON TARGET FOR JUNE 30, 2021 CHAPTER 11
EXIT
* HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC - CREDITORS TO BE PAID IN FULL AND EXISTING
SHAREHOLDERS TO RECEIVE MORE THAN $1 BILLION OF VALUE
* HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC - APPROVAL CLEARS WAY FOR HERTZ TO EMERGE FROM
CHAPTER 11 BY END OF JUNE 2021.
* HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC - PLAN WILL ELIMINATE OVER $5 BILLION OF DEBT,
INCLUDING ALL OF HERTZ EUROPE'S CORPORATE DEBT
* HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC - PLAN WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN $2.2 BILLION OF
GLOBAL LIQUIDITY TO REORGANIZED COMPANY
* HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC - WILL EMERGE WITH A NEW $2.8 BILLION EXIT
CREDIT FACILITY
* HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC - WILL EMERGE WITH AN APPROXIMATELY $7 BILLION
OF ASSET-BACKED VEHICLE FINANCING FACILITY
* HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS - PLAN PROVIDES FOR PAYMENT IN CASH IN FULL TO ALL
CREDITORS AND FOR EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS TO RECEIVE MORE THAN $1 BILLION OF
VALUE |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 43 我才不关心WSB， 我的投资理念自成一体
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: WSB 有在玩这个股嘛？
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 44 long time holding undervalued American outstanding assets |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 45 $HTZGQ
Found this online dated June 14, news on option adjustment
Contract Adjustment
Date: Effective on the business day the Plan becomes effective.
Option Symbol: HTZGQ changes to HTZQ1
Strike Divisor: 1
Contract Multiplier: 1
New Multiplier: 100 (e.g., a premium of 1.50 yields $150; a strike of 1
yields $100.00)
New Deliverable
Per Contract: 1) $153.00 Cash ($1.53 x 100)
2) 100 x pro rata portion of 3% of the total Reorganized Hertz Parent
Common Shares, subject to dilution as described in the Plan
3) 100 x pro rata portion of New Warrants
CUSIPs: Reorganized Hertz Parent: TBD
New Warrants: TBD
Settlement Allocation: Reorganized Hertz Parent: TBD
New Warrants: TBD
THE ALLOCATION OF THE AGGREGATE STRIKE PRICE AMOUNT IS BEING PROVIDED SOLELY
FOR
THE PURPOSE OF THE INTERFACE BETWEEN OCC AND THE NATIONAL SECURITIES
CLEARING
CORPORATION (NSCC), AND IS NOT INTENDED TO BE USED FOR ANY OTHER PURPOSE,
TRANSACTION OR CUSTOMER ACCOUNT STATEMENTS. |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 46 算了一下，如果总equity 估价6.2B， 和CAR 目前市值$6.58B 相当。
$2.78B 新股只给机构认购。6.2-2.78=$3.42B
$8刀的payment包括cash， warrant 和新股票！
“The winning bid that Hertz accepted provides for a distribution estimated
at
close to $8 a share to the company’s current stockholders
Some of that would be paid in cash, with warrants and reorganized equity
also accounting for some of the value.”
$1.5B 的preferred 应该不包括在6.2B里。
“the issuance of $1.5 billion of new preferred stock to Apollo and a fully
backstopped rights offering to the company’s existing shareholders to
purchase about $1.64 billion of additional common stock. ”
所以，那个3.42B 应该都归老股东了？目前总股数156M。
除掉additional 1.64B给老股东认购的新股票，还剩$1.78B属于老股东的钱没说怎么
分，按目前查到的总股数156M，每股11.4刀，这个数字，应该在新股票和warrant之间
split吧, 远超预期的$8。 |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 47 厉害你的算法和我的画法不谋而合
estimated
fully
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 算了一下，如果总equity 估价6.2B， 和CAR 目前市值$6.58B 相当。
: $2.78B 新股只给机构认购。6.2-2.78=$3.42B
: $8刀的payment包括cash， warrant 和新股票！
: “The winning bid that Hertz accepted provides for a distribution estimated
: at
: close to $8 a share to the company’s current stockholders
: Some of that would be paid in cash, with warrants and reorganized equity
: also accounting for some of the value.”
: $1.5B 的preferred 应该不包括在6.2B里。
: “the issuance of $1.5 billion of new preferred stock to Apollo and a fully
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 49 哎，我问你一个问题。我至今没搞懂，要是到6月30我还是不卖，我的htzgq会发生什么
呀？会不会自动转化成新的ticker的股票？或是直接变成现金回到我的账户。请大牛不
吝赐教。
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 赞功课做的仔细！
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 50 plan里说distribution是现金，warrant，和新股。细节没有，也没有媒体报道，有点
weird。
【在 s****a 的大作中提到】
: 哎，我问你一个问题。我至今没搞懂，要是到6月30我还是不卖，我的htzgq会发生什么
: 呀？会不会自动转化成新的ticker的股票？或是直接变成现金回到我的账户。请大牛不
: 吝赐教。
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 51 ok. 我收到了他们寄给我的股东说明书，今晚仔细看看
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: plan里说distribution是现金，warrant，和新股。细节没有，也没有媒体报道，有点
: weird。
|
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 52 thanks
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: plan里说distribution是现金，warrant，和新股。细节没有，也没有媒体报道，有点
: weird。
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 53 破产股留意broker给的信息，broker有专门的部门，可以电话问。 |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 54 我的英格力屎very chine, 我说了他不懂，狗听了不明白。
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 破产股留意broker给的信息，broker有专门的部门，可以电话问。
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | |
s****a
发帖数: 2918 | 56 不用担心什么? 是这只股票，还是我的英格力屎？
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 基本不用担心。
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 57 雅虎上讨论的
The reorganization plan is one that is very confusing and has been changed
from the original plan. There had been an income requirement. From The Wall
Street Journal:
Q: How are shareholders treated under the bankruptcy plan?
A: Current shareholders will receive $1.53 in cash per share, plus their
proportion of a 3% stake in the restructured business set aside for
shareholders, and warrants for an additional 18% stake. The warrants are
akin to options, conferring on their owner the right to buy shares at a
certain price. If Hertz’s equity valuation surpasses $6.5 billion, the
warrants are in the money. The more Hertz is worth beyond that threshold,
the more valuable the warrants. Certain accredited shareholders—
institutional buyers and wealthier individuals—can forego the warrants and
instead participate in an equity rights offering.
Q: Who can participate in the rights offering?
A: To qualify, individuals must have either a net worth of $1 million or
more, or have generated at least $200,000 in income for 2019 and 2020 and
can expect to earn the same in 2021. Otherwise, they and their spouse must
have collectively earned more than $300,000 for 2019 and 2020 and expect to
earn the same in 2021 to qualify.
Q: Do shareholders who are ineligible for the rights offering have any
decisions to make?
A: Yes. Those who are ineligible for the rights offering can still elect to
sell their subscription rights to participate in the rights offering to
other, qualified investors in a court-supervised auction.
Any shareholder who doesn’t want to participate in the rights offering and
doesn’t want to sell their rights can choose to accept their share of the
warrants, plus the cash payout and 3% equity distribution. If a shareholder
doesn’t notify Hertz of their decision, they will automatically be granted
the warrants.
上面的说法，现金1.53刀，新股3%，按6.2B 算，只有1刀多点，魔鬼在warrant，价格
数量几乎没有任何细节。我的仓位不大，打算啥也不干，让broker自动换过去。 |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 58 找到了这篇文章，基本很详细的解释了新股东会拿到啥。
https://www.barrons.com/articles/hertz-stock-bankruptcy-51623793538
Hertz Stock Is Rallying as Its Exit From Bankruptcy Nears. Here’s Why.
Hertz Global Holdings shares have been rallying amid investor enthusiasm for
the rental-car company ahead of its planned emergence from bankruptcy on
June 30.
Investors appear to be attracted to Hertz because of strong rental-car
pricing, a discounted valuation relative to rival Avis Budget Group (ticker:
CAR), and expectations that the company will have greater financial and
operational flexibility once it exits bankruptcy.
Hertz shares (HTZGQ) rose 23 cents, or 3%, to $7.91 on Tuesday after hitting
a new 52-week high of $8.89. They traded as recently as June 4 at around $6
, when Barron’s wrote favorably on the stock. Hertz now is valued at $1.2
billion based on 156 million shares outstanding.
The stock was up about 10% Monday. The company’s reorganization plan was
approved by a bankruptcy court last week.
Under that plan, creditors are being paid off in full, and shareholders are
getting a package of cash, shares in the reorganized company, and stock
warrants that Hertz’s financial advisers estimated earlier this year was
worth $7.36 a share. Based on investor enthusiasm for the company, the
package could be worth considerably more than $7.36 a share.
Shareholders recently had the opportunity to participate in a rights
offering to buy new stock or take warrants in the reorganized company.
Nearly 90% chose warrants, which was viewed as the more attractive choice
based on the projected value of the warrants.
New shares of the reorganized Hertz are expected to begin trading around
June 30 with when-issued activity possible earlier. The warrants are
expected to start trading around the same time as the stock.
There are expected to be about 470 million of new Hertz shares outstanding.
Current stockholders and others had the right to buy stock at $10 a share.
An investor group including Knighthead Capital and Certares Management has
agreed to buy almost $3 billion of stock, reflecting the enthusiasm among
many institutional investors for Hertz.
Based on an estimated equity value for the company of $6.5 billion, that
implies a stock price for new Hertz shares of around $14. The warrants are
based on a $6.5 billion valuation, meaning an estimated strike price of
close to $14.
Current Hertz stockholders will get $1.53 a share in cash, 3% of the stock
in the reorganized company, and warrants for 18% of the reorganized company.
That may translate into roughly one tenth of a share of new stock and about
two-thirds of a warrant per a current Hertz share, Barron’s estimates.
The bulk of the value in the package is in the warrants, which have an
unusually long maturity of 30 years. That long maturity should make the
warrants valuable and give them a high correlation, or delta, relative to
the stock. A $1 change in the stock could mean a 75-cent change in the Hertz
warrants, for a delta of 75%. Most warrants mature in 10 years or less.
Investors are excited about rising rental car pricing amid a scarcity of
vehicles. The consumer price index report for May released last week showed
that rental car prices were up 10% in the month after 14% increases in each
of the previous two months. There has been anecdotal evidence of customers
paying hundreds of dollars a day for rental cars amid scarcity. This summer
could be a blockbuster period for the industry.
“Here comes the pricing power” was the title of a research note from
Morgan Stanley analyst Billy Kovanis on Avis. He notes that the incremental
profit on higher pricing is 90%. He lifted his cash flow estimates for Avis
for 2021, 2022, and 2023.
He also said that investor money could flow into Hertz stock if it emerged
from bankruptcy with a lower valuation than Avis, whose stock has more than
doubled this year. Avis shares were off 85 cents on Tuesday, to $90.75.
Hertz is expected to emerge from bankruptcy with little or no net debt and a
stronger balance sheet than Avis, whose market value is $6.4 billion.
Avis has been the main way to play the rental-car industry. That will change
with Hertz’s emergence late this month. Avis, Hertz and the private
Enterprise dominate the U.S. industry. |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 59 总结一下，
老股东的一股，会换成$1.53cash, 0.09股的新股， 0.53股的warrant。赫兹自己估价
这个package值$7.36。
新股股价$10，总股数470m.
warrant strike price 大概在14刀，30年失效，6/30日起和股票一起available to
trade. 文章说Delta 75%, 也就是股票涨1刀， warrant涨.75刀。
最近一次rights offering，90%的机构选择了warrant。 |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 60 估计会慢慢跌倒月底。大家都不喜欢不确定性。
愿赌服输，开始慢慢加仓。 |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 61 居然有暴涨回去了，抢跑了？
现在买老股票，等于买30年到期的call，strike price $14， 便宜吗？
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 估计会慢慢跌倒月底。大家都不喜欢不确定性。
: 愿赌服输，开始慢慢加仓。
|
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 62 今天的消息，简直是spoon feeding 小三啊。
Hertz Is About to Exit Bankruptcy. Why Its Stock Is a Buy. -- Barrons.com
BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
— 6:49 PM ET 06/25/2021
Hertz set to emerge from bankruptcy this week at a perfect time. And
shareholders stand to gain.
The rental-car industry is capitalizing on both a domestic travel surge and
a vehicle shortage this summer to raise prices. Vacationers are paying $275
a day or more for midsize sport utility vehicles from Hertz in popular
locations and $100-a-day rentals are common, double what Hertz was getting
in the first quarter. Used-car prices, meanwhile, have surged, benefiting
the industry when they sell their fleets.
"The rental-car market is on fire, and the companies have found pricing
discipline," says Hamzah Mazari, an analyst at Jefferies. "What used to be a
dysfunctional oligopoly is now functional." Hertz , Avis Budget Group ，and
privately owned Enterprise control about 95% of the domestic market.
The way to play Hertz is through its current stock, which has nearly doubled
, to $7.15, since mid-May. That's when a group led by Knighthead Capital
Management, Certares Management, and Apollo Global Management，won a bidding
contest in bankruptcy court for the company. More upside is likely after
Hertz exits bankruptcy -- expected on June 30, with the new stock trading
the next day. Hertz will emerge with little or no net corporate debt, while
Avis has about $ 3.5 billion.
"Our plan for Hertz is to invest heavily in modernizing the company's
technology and improving the customer experience," Greg O'Hara, senior
managing director and founder of Certares, tells Barron's. "Along with a
right-sized capital structure and favorable economic tailwinds, we can turn
Hertz -- which has always had a strong brand -- into a stronger company, as
well."
Andy Taylor, managing director at Carronade Capital Management, another firm
involved in the restructuring, says, " It's hard to overstate how well
positioned Hertz is coming out of this restructuring. Hertz will emerge with
the healthiest balance sheet in the rental-car sector into an unprecedented
demand and pricing environment, which should persist through the second
half of 2022, given that the industry can't increase supply due to a 50-year
low in auto inventory."
Current Hertz shares are due to be exchanged for a package consisting of $1.
53 a share in cash, 3% of the stock in the reorganized company, and warrants
-- a long-term call option -- for 18% of the new, postbankruptcy company.
Holders of the current Hertz shares could realize $10 to $12 a share, Taylor
says.
The initial trading in new Hertz stock could begin at $13.80, valuing it at
$6.5 billion based on about 472 million shares outstanding. There is also $1
.5 billion of preferred stock held by Apollo.
Assume no net debt and Hertz is valued at about nine times projected 2023
earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda,
of $859 million. This projection was made by Hertz management in April and
could prove conservative given the strong industry trends.
Many investors are confused by the package of securities that Hertz holders
will get. As noted, holders will get $ 1.53 a share in cash, new stock, and
warrants for each current Hertz share. The stock portion could be worth
about $1.25 for a current Hertz share, based on the estimated issuance to
Hertz holders of 14 million new shares, or nearly one-10th of a new share
for each current Hertz share.
Current Hertz holders are expected to get nearly two-thirds of a warrant for
each share with a strike price of $6.5 billion of new equity value, or $13.
80 a share based on the new stock. The warrant is expected to account for
the bulk of the package value.
The warrants are tricky to value. Their maturity of 30 years -- most
warrants mature in less than 10 years -- makes them valuable. Based on
option pricing models, each could trade around $8, assuming a stock price of
$14, meaning that holders would get roughly $5 in warrant value.
Using these assumptions, the package of cash, stock, and warrants could be
worth about $8 per current Hertz share: $1.53 a share in cash, $1.25 in
stock, and $5 of warrants -- a premium to the current stock price. If new
Hertz gains, there would be additional upside. The risk is a lower price on
the new stock and warrants.
The biggest risk that investors face is if the industry's discipline
crumbles when the car shortage eases. Yet Hertz and Avis cut their fleets in
the pandemic and have been slow to rebuild them as auto makers prioritize
sales of vehicles to dealers. Hertz's U.S. fleet stood at 292,000 on March
31, down from 519,000 a year earlier.
One potential spark for Hertz would be a deal to sell cars to a large used-
car retailer. There has been talk about a possible deal between Hertz and
Carvana which would help Hertz on used-car sales and give Carvana a regular
supply of vehicles. Carvana and Hertz did not respond to requests for
comment.
Like its old ad slogan, Hertz puts investors "in the driver's seat" in a
rapidly improving industry.
Write to Andrew Bary at [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-25-21 1849ET
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 63 Update 一下， 这篇文章说一股换2/3 warrant，比之前预想的多。cash payment是1.
53+1.05 一股。 |
b********k
发帖数: 139 | 64 那位大侠解释一下什么是warranty? 到时怎么交易换成钱或股票？ |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | |
m******c
发帖数: 1202 | |
