M***0
发帖数: 4 | 1 Stocks rose this morning as bulls attempted to start another recovery rally.
And though yesterday’s trading session saw broader market losses, equities
ended up surging into the close. Minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting
initially sent stocks lower when investors learned that several Fed
officials wanted to begin “taper talks.”
It had long been speculated that the “T-word” would send bulls running, as
tapering bond purchases would cause interest rates to rise.
Instead, share prices rocketed higher following the release of the FOMC
minutes. It didn’t make much sense to analysts, but in today’s market,
nearly anything is possible.
The most important event yesterday, however, had nothing to do with the Fed
minutes or even the rapid crypto crash. The Fed published its latest
overnight repo market report at around 1 pm EST, revealing that over $294
billion in debt had been purchased by the Fed from 43 counterparties. That’
s the biggest overnight repo transfer since 2017.
Repurchase agreements (repo or RP) and reverse repurchase agreements (RRP)
are used by large banks to fund ongoing operations. The Fed uses RP and RRP
as a way to control money supply.
With RP, the Fed purchases Treasurys from large banks. This gives the banks
cash while increasing their cash reserves in the short term. At some point
in the near future, the Fed then resells those Treasurys back to the banks.
The Fed can use RP to tighten the money supply by removing money from the
amount of free-flowing cash. Then, the Fed can use RRP to buy the Treasurys
back from the banks, putting money back into the system.
As RRP usage climbs, it becomes harder for the Fed to keep quantitative
easing (QE) running. The Fed’s currently conducting roughly $120 billion in
QE every month. In doing so, it buys up Treasurys before unloading them via
the RRP market.
The problem is that there’s a limit to how much the Fed can lean on RRP
operations before it eventually hampers QE, thus forcing the Fed to reduce
its bond-buying programs.
“The heavy use of the [overnight] RRP facility tells us that foreign banks
too are now chock-full of reserves,” warned former Fed staffer and repo
market expert Zoltan Pozsar.
The Fed’s all-time RRP daily high was $475 billion, which was hit back in
2015. If the Fed surpasses that high, it will probably have to start
tapering QE.
That means the Fed’s key economic metrics – inflation and unemployment –
may not actually influence Chairman Jerome Powell’s decision to start
tapering, thus raising rates.
It’ll be overloaded banks that initially cause issues.
And currently, the Fed’s on pace to exceed that $475 billion RRP usage by
early June.
So, even though stocks are rising today, it may only be a matter of time
until they’re shocked by an abrupt halt in QE. And inflation, which is
certainly soaring in a concerning manner, won’t be the catalyst.
The often-overlooked repo markets will be.
Expect to hear more about this several weeks from now when everyone suddenly
becomes a “repo expert.” Until then, watch out for potential bull traps
in the market.
Because the next one might just come before an RRP-induced crash.
读了半天，还是没明白逆回购和QE的关系 | d********0
发帖数: 72 | 2 Nothing good. Fuckers just want to catch a white wolf with bare useless
hands (which I mean equal to US dollars)
rally.
equities
as
【在 M***0 的大作中提到】
: Stocks rose this morning as bulls attempted to start another recovery rally.
: And though yesterday’s trading session saw broader market losses, equities
: ended up surging into the close. Minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting
: initially sent stocks lower when investors learned that several Fed
: officials wanted to begin “taper talks.”
: It had long been speculated that the “T-word” would send bulls running, as
: tapering bond purchases would cause interest rates to rise.
: Instead, share prices rocketed higher following the release of the FOMC
: minutes. It didn’t make much sense to analysts, but in today’s market,
: nearly anything is possible.
| s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 3 这文章写的有点乱，可能还有typo，但基本的意思是，银行的钱多的放不下了，隔夜借
给美联储了，美联储要给银行国债，所谓RRP，相当于逆QE，这个规模现在过大了，美
联储QE买回来的国债，还不够银行通过RRP买回去的国债。 | v******8
发帖数: 615 | 4
还好银行现在放贷不像 2005-2007. 不然就容易造就另外一个 2008-2009
房价泡沫破裂。 当年银行乱放贷也是联储宽松搞的银行钱太多，乱放贷，
房价爆涨。
如果联储持续这样下去，银行现在即使要求 20% down，也有可能
造成房价过两年跌 30%， 引起银行坏账增加。这 TMD 联储就是在作死
的节奏。现在市场上钱已经是太多了，才引起房价，垃圾股，垃圾币暴涨。
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 这文章写的有点乱，可能还有typo，但基本的意思是，银行的钱多的放不下了，隔夜借
: 给美联储了，美联储要给银行国债，所谓RRP，相当于逆QE，这个规模现在过大了，美
: 联储QE买回来的国债，还不够银行通过RRP买回去的国债。
| a******h
发帖数: 1 | 5 fed从财政部买国债叫qe没错吧，fed再把它短期倒卖给银行赚个利差叫银行购债没毛病
吧，到期时fed支付一点点利息再从银行手里买回来叫逆回购，都对是吧。但是fed从财
政部买的太多了，倒卖规模越来越大，到了银行购买力上限，是不是就逼着fed减少qe
了呢。大概就是这文章的意思。
深挖一下吧，银行周二是按多少利率买走的，或许能有更多发现。 | s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 6 低利率银行业已尽死掉了！银行一是没动力放贷了，二是不会放贷了，靠倒卖国库券为
生，安全省事儿。
【在 v******8 的大作中提到】
:
: 还好银行现在放贷不像 2005-2007. 不然就容易造就另外一个 2008-2009
: 房价泡沫破裂。 当年银行乱放贷也是联储宽松搞的银行钱太多，乱放贷，
: 房价爆涨。
: 如果联储持续这样下去，银行现在即使要求 20% down，也有可能
: 造成房价过两年跌 30%， 引起银行坏账增加。这 TMD 联储就是在作死
: 的节奏。现在市场上钱已经是太多了，才引起房价，垃圾股，垃圾币暴涨。
| s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 7 你这篇小编写的狗屎一样，错误百出，难怪看不懂，看这篇清楚多了
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/05/20/fed-drains-351-billion-in-liquidity-from-
market-via-reverse-repos-as-banking-system-creaks-under-mountain-of-reserves
/ | t**********i
发帖数: 37 | 8 我觉得楼主的文章讲的非常清楚
Rrp可以说明市场闲钱太多
But
转折线
我昨天看到也以为要出大事，结果一查发现
Rrp在2018年以前不仅随机行走多年而且量要一直极大，完全预测不了16和18的correct
ion
而且上一次spike是去年三月，恰好是市场流动性枯竭的时候
所以所谓什么每次到高点必定要紧缩纯属扯淡。
结论一切等美联储正式taper为准，其他都是恐慌mm试图寻找蛛丝马迹搞drama | t**********i
发帖数: 37 | 9 小三不用整日里盯着这些容易搞晕也看不懂的东西
两点要记牢：联储极不愿意升息，除非通胀太高
2.通胀长期坑定会下来
只要下次公布的cpi不过分离谱，除非比上次还要高很多（不大可能），不会骤然taper
。所以横盘概率远大于黑天鹅。 | s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 10 这两段话本身就是自相矛盾的：前一段说的是RP提高流动性，后一段又说RP紧缩流动性
。前一段说RP是FED买Treasurys，后一段说RRP是FED买Treasures。
With RP, the Fed purchases Treasurys from large banks. This gives the banks
cash while increasing their cash reserves in the short term. At some point
in the near future, the Fed then resells those Treasurys back to the banks.
The Fed can use RP to tighten the money supply by removing money from the
amount of free-flowing cash. Then, the Fed can use RRP to buy the Treasurys
back from the banks, putting money back into the system.
correct
【在 t**********i 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得楼主的文章讲的非常清楚
: Rrp可以说明市场闲钱太多
: But
: 转折线
: 我昨天看到也以为要出大事，结果一查发现
: Rrp在2018年以前不仅随机行走多年而且量要一直极大，完全预测不了16和18的correct
: ion
: 而且上一次spike是去年三月，恰好是市场流动性枯竭的时候
: 所以所谓什么每次到高点必定要紧缩纯属扯淡。
: 结论一切等美联储正式taper为准，其他都是恐慌mm试图寻找蛛丝马迹搞drama
| t**********i
发帖数: 37 | 11 Rp是提高流动性
Rrp是逆回购的回购，是紧缩。
: 这两段话本身就是自相矛盾的：前一段说的是RP提高流动性，后一段又说
RP紧缩
流动性
: 。前一段说RP是FED买Treasurys，后一段说RRP是FED买Treasures。
: With RP, the Fed purchases Treasurys from large banks. This
gives the
banks
: cash while increasing their cash reserves in the short term. At
some
point
: in the near future, the Fed then resells those Treasurys back to
the
banks.
: The Fed can use RP to tighten the money supply by removing money
from
the
: amount of free-flowing cash. Then, the Fed can use RRP to buy
the
Treasurys
: back from the banks, putting money back into the system.
: correct
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 这两段话本身就是自相矛盾的：前一段说的是RP提高流动性，后一段又说RP紧缩流动性
: 。前一段说RP是FED买Treasurys，后一段说RRP是FED买Treasures。
: With RP, the Fed purchases Treasurys from large banks. This gives the banks
: cash while increasing their cash reserves in the short term. At some point
: in the near future, the Fed then resells those Treasurys back to the banks.
: The Fed can use RP to tighten the money supply by removing money from the
: amount of free-flowing cash. Then, the Fed can use RRP to buy the Treasurys
: back from the banks, putting money back into the system.
:
: correct
| s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 12 所以原文小编屁都不懂瞎写啊。
The Fed can use RP to tighten the money supply by removing money from the
amount of free-flowing cash. Then, the Fed can use RRP to buy the Treasurys
back from the banks, putting money back into the system.
【在 t**********i 的大作中提到】
: Rp是提高流动性
: Rrp是逆回购的回购，是紧缩。
:
:
: 这两段话本身就是自相矛盾的：前一段说的是RP提高流动性，后一段又说
: RP紧缩
: 流动性
:
: 。前一段说RP是FED买Treasurys，后一段说RRP是FED买Treasures。
:
: With RP, the Fed purchases Treasurys from large banks. This
: gives the
: banks
|
|
