w**********i
发帖数: 1 | 1 Oil prices may be dropping, but oil is still headed for $140 per barrel,
Goldman Sachs told CNBC on Thursday, and could even hit $140 in the face of
a recession.
“$140 is still our base case because, unlike equity, which are anticipatory
assets, commodities need to solve for today’s mismatched supply and demand
,” energy analyst Damien Courvalin said, who compared today’s market to
the recession in 2008.
At that time, oil prices rallied even during the first six months of the
market downturn, bolstered by tight supplies as inventories continued to
draw down, Courvalin explained. Eventually, oil prices were dragged down by
the slowing economy. Goldman sees that happening again, even if we are
headed for a recession—at least at the start of a recession.
Robust demand and a tight market this time around is compounded by years of
underinvestment in oil exploration, creating this long-term supply issue
that is immune to any speedy remedy. Goldman still sees Brent sinking to $85
if GDP growth outside China reaches zero, but tight crude oil supplies
should put a floor under the price slide.
Goldman’s predictions for $140 oil as its base case comes even as crude oil
prices slid this week, and even as some fear a recession. WTI and Brent
crude rallied on Thursday, managing to regain ground that was lost earlier
in the week that saw both benchmarks break below $100 per barrel. The market
fundamentally remains tight, but temporary factors including China’s
recently announced plan to consider a $220 billion stimulus with bond sales
and fears of a recession have swung oil wildly this week.
By Thursday afternoon, both benchmarks had made significant gains. WTI was
trading up 4.23% to $102.70, with Brent crude trading up 3.95% to $104.70
per barrel.
“This is an environment where we need a decade of investment ahead,” the
Goldman analyst told CNBC. | w*******g
发帖数: 9932 | | G**********d
发帖数: 386 | 3 油价带动油股朝同一方向运动，不过上下幅度常有背离，这个你plot a chart对比一下
看看就清楚了。但是Oil Prices Hit $140，XLE未必能新高。如果竟然真的再出新高，
从技术分析角度来看，只能说不可思议。 | w*******g
发帖数: 9932 | 4 为什么不能出新高？ 现在汽油价格和原油一起浮动。石油公司利润创新高。
年底前XLE过一百都有可能。
【在 G**********d 的大作中提到】
: 油价带动油股朝同一方向运动，不过上下幅度常有背离，这个你plot a chart对比一下
: 看看就清楚了。但是Oil Prices Hit $140，XLE未必能新高。如果竟然真的再出新高，
: 从技术分析角度来看，只能说不可思议。
| a*******g
发帖数: 3500 | 5 石油公司的股价是长期油价的映射
也就是未来十年平均油价是个什么水平
对于油价sensitivity高的是油服股
你可以去拿图看看算算 很容易看出来 大油公司相对于油价上下波动是比较稳。
人家多少大风大浪都见过了 对于油价风险的对冲 做了几十年， 第一条就是上下游一
体化 这就是为了规避风险。
: 为什么不能出新高？ 现在汽油价格和原油一起浮动。石油公司利润创新
高。
: 年底前XLE过一百都有可能。
【在 w*******g 的大作中提到】
: 为什么不能出新高？ 现在汽油价格和原油一起浮动。石油公司利润创新高。
: 年底前XLE过一百都有可能。
| w*******g
发帖数: 9932 | 6 石油公司股价也是大起大落。搞不懂这一行怎么经营。投资那么大，收回成本漫长，油
价缺毫无稳定性可言。
【在 a*******g 的大作中提到】
: 石油公司的股价是长期油价的映射
: 也就是未来十年平均油价是个什么水平
: 对于油价sensitivity高的是油服股
: 你可以去拿图看看算算 很容易看出来 大油公司相对于油价上下波动是比较稳。
: 人家多少大风大浪都见过了 对于油价风险的对冲 做了几十年， 第一条就是上下游一
: 体化 这就是为了规避风险。
:
:
: 为什么不能出新高？ 现在汽油价格和原油一起浮动。石油公司利润创新
: 高。
:
: 年底前XLE过一百都有可能。
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