Stock版 - 就业假象： The US Job Market Probably Isn’t as Good as It Seems, Goldman Says |
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Q*****8
发帖数: 369 | 1 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-11/us-payroll-gains-overstate-job-growth-goldman-s-hatzius-warns
Recent gains in US payrolls, including a stronger-than-expected June advance
, probably exaggerate current employment growth, according to Goldman Sachs
Group Inc.
US payrolls climbed 372,000 last month, the Labor Department’s
establishment survey showed Friday, and averaged 375,000 from April through
June. The June reading beat expectations and helped alleviate concerns of an
imminent recession.
However, the department’s separate survey of households showed a 315,000
drop in June employment. And that source of data showed employment has
fallen by about 116,000 on average over the past three months.
“While the household survey is much noisier than the establishment survey
on a month-to-month basis, it picks up changes in net new firm creation in
real time and therefore often outperforms the establishment survey at
cyclical turning points, provided both measures are averaged over several
months,” Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note.
“This suggests that the still-robust nonfarm payroll prints of recent
months probably overstate true job growth,” he said.
Hatzius also pointed to declines in job vacancies and quits, higher jobless
claims, weaker employment indexes in industry surveys as well as scattered
reports from companies about hiring freezes and slowdowns.
“There is no doubt that a labor market slowdown is underway,” Hatzius said. | s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 2 然并卵！控制通胀第一，加息第一。其他的管不了那么多了。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5 | l********4
发帖数: 33 | 3 fed控制通胀唯一的办法就是把就业冷却下来，也就是说制造一个“人为可控”的小规
模失业潮。
让屁民就业确实不容易，但从来没听说过失业也不容易的。
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 然并卵！控制通胀第一，加息第一。其他的管不了那么多了。
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
| s**********o
发帖数: 14359 | 4 扯淡，公司跑了一半的马工，现在根本没法干活了，
害得我也得学新东西，信心满满准备去大厂拿包裹，
就业市场再好也有说不好的 | l********4
发帖数: 33 | 5 您可以去coinbase，orcl，meta，nflx享受一下被雷的感觉啊，没人拦着。
【在 s**********o 的大作中提到】
: 扯淡，公司跑了一半的马工，现在根本没法干活了，
: 害得我也得学新东西，信心满满准备去大厂拿包裹，
: 就业市场再好也有说不好的
| s**********o
发帖数: 14359 | 6 最近走的同事去的有，脸熟,微软，亚马逊，连IT DIRECTOR都去微软当MANAGER了
就业形势一片大好，脸熟的RECRUITER还在LINKEDIN发面试请求，每天都收到
很多骚扰JOB邮件，没有减少的势头
【在 l********4 的大作中提到】
: 您可以去coinbase，orcl，meta，nflx享受一下被雷的感觉啊，没人拦着。
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