w***s
发帖数: 7132 | 1 http://www.pnas.org/content/108/1/18.full
Quantitative and empirical demonstration of the Matthew effect
in a study of career longevity | g*******a
发帖数: 6484 | | w***s
发帖数: 7132 | 3 Abstract
The Matthew effect refers to the adage written some
two-thousand years ago in the Gospel of St. Matthew:
“For to all those who have, more will be given.” Even
two millennia later, this idiom is used by sociologists
to qualitatively describe the dynamics of individual progress and the
interplay between status and reward. Quantitative studies of
professional careers are traditionally limited by the difficulty in
measuring progress and the lack of data on individual careers. However,
in some professions, there are well-defined metrics that quantify career
longevity, success, and prowess, which together contribute to the
overall success rating for an individual employee. Here we demonstrate
testable evidence of the age-old Matthew “rich get richer” effect,
wherein the longevity and past success of an individual lead to a
cumulative advantage in further developing his or her career. We develop
an exactly solvable stochastic career progress model that quantitatively
incorporates the Matthew effect and validate our model predictions for
several competitive professions. We test our model on the careers of
400,000 scientists using data from six high-impact journals and further
confirm our findings by testing the model on the careers of more than
20,000 athletes in four sports leagues. Our model highlights the
importance of early career development, showing that many careers are
stunted by the relative disadvantage associated with inexperience. | g*******a
发帖数: 6484 | 4 说的一点不错
这世界有人文章太多
有的人一无所有！！！ | g*******a
发帖数: 6484 | | g*******a
发帖数: 6484 | 6 其实这些statistical model,都是概率啊。
千万不要往自己的身上，或者往领导身上套用。 |
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