d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 1 假如你攒了一年钱，辛苦坐飞机去las vegas参加wsop的main event。
起始筹码500bb，第一手牌aa，前面已经有至少3个人allin，你会不会call？ |
M********g
发帖数: 717 | 2 no brainer call.
Since it's faraway from money, no pay jump at all. It is the dream
opportunity to get the chips quadrupled.Go big or go home.
If you got KK, that is another story.
【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: 假如你攒了一年钱，辛苦坐飞机去las vegas参加wsop的main event。
: 起始筹码500bb，第一手牌aa，前面已经有至少3个人allin，你会不会call？
|
p****0
发帖数: 611 | 3 什么样的人会fold？
【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: 假如你攒了一年钱，辛苦坐飞机去las vegas参加wsop的main event。
: 起始筹码500bb，第一手牌aa，前面已经有至少3个人allin，你会不会call？
|
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 4 这有啥可想的。就算是scared money也只能call。因为又不是说你这把不call，以后就
可以依靠自己“高超的牌技”安全运转都不用和人扔硬币了。这把不扔硬币以后还得扔
。迟早要扔。不如选个odds好的时候扔。
你应该换个问题。你有两个选择：
1. 80%的机会拿$10M. 20%的机会输掉$1M。
2. 直接给你$1M。没风险
富人都选1.屌丝都只能选2. 这个才是scared money的例子。因为屌丝没法承受这个波
动。和牌技无关。 |
d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | |
h**n
发帖数: 981 | 6 I actually had similar questions, but was a little bit different. I
definitely will make that call myself without regret. But let's say Phil
Ivey or Johnny Chan are facing this situation, will they make the call. I'm
sure they edge over the any average Joe is bigger than 63% vs. 37%. Should
they risk their tourney just on this? |
d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 7 this is exactly what i am waiting for. lol
To those who have huge tourney edge on average + the tourney levels are very
slow + so many entries, it might be a fold here to avoid variance.
I once saw a similar post on 2+2. |
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 8 Hehe. You simply gave them way, way too much respect. Their edge is by no
means higher than 63% against an average WSOP player. For regular casino
table games, the house only has up to 54% edge and they make billions of
dollars by keeping you playing. So even if you only have 54% edge, you just
need to keep playing and playing and you will be wild rich. Let alone a 63%
edge.
Those HSP TV programs were edited in a way to make you feel that those pros
are gods. In reality, they were just playing with the money FTP stole from
players. So basically, they were just free riders.
Even if they really have 63% edge, then they should still call. This is
because a person with 63% edge must have won millions of dollars from cash
games in the past. So $10k buyin is just a noise. This is just like you will
of course call if this is a $100 buyin game.
I know many people got ridiculous ego and feel that their edge is higher
than their actual edge. So that they were often thinking that they can use
their so-called "post-flop skills" and small-ball strategy and avoid
variance. This is bullshit. If they are really that good then they would not
be so concerned about the $10k buyin at all, with a 63% edge you can easily
grind $100k from 2-5 games within a year.
In a word, either way you should call. If your edge is lower than 63% then
of course you should call. If your edge is higher than 63%, the WOW you must
be a multi-millionaire and one of the best players in the world. Then of
course you can still call, since $10k is just a noise in your asset so why
worry about variance.
m
【在 h**n 的大作中提到】
: I actually had similar questions, but was a little bit different. I
: definitely will make that call myself without regret. But let's say Phil
: Ivey or Johnny Chan are facing this situation, will they make the call. I'm
: sure they edge over the any average Joe is bigger than 63% vs. 37%. Should
: they risk their tourney just on this?
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 9 very interesting topic...
in my eyes, edge can come from a few areas, so far, i guess we're mainly
talking about hand skills (or how to best play a hand?)
however, in events like WSOP ME, more experienced players also gain a much
higher edge on other things, for example:
1) bankroll, out of those ~7000 players, to be honest, i don't think most of
them are well bankrolled for it at all. yeah, it's only "10K" and a good/
serious player should be able to "save it up" in a year. but for those guys
who play similar events all year long, they don't really have to work so
hard for it. so psychologically, avg. guys are at big disadvantage even
before the first hand is dealt. like dan harrington said, WSOP in general is
created unequally, some ppl got "multiple tickets", while for others, it's
a one-shot thing. some ppl struggle just to survive day X or money bubble,
while others take aggressive plays to hit big;
2) "fear" equity as i call it. admit it or not, if we play at a table
without knowing who we're playing against (no name, screen id, HUD, or any
other IDs), we avg. players may fare better against durrrr alike. however,
in live, sitting next to 3 guys like him, i suspect the average joe would
not be quite capable playing his A game, i.e., either over think or under
play a lot of hands, some of which might be key ones.
my 2 cents.
just
%
pros
【在 c*****t 的大作中提到】
: Hehe. You simply gave them way, way too much respect. Their edge is by no
: means higher than 63% against an average WSOP player. For regular casino
: table games, the house only has up to 54% edge and they make billions of
: dollars by keeping you playing. So even if you only have 54% edge, you just
: need to keep playing and playing and you will be wild rich. Let alone a 63%
: edge.
: Those HSP TV programs were edited in a way to make you feel that those pros
: are gods. In reality, they were just playing with the money FTP stole from
: players. So basically, they were just free riders.
: Even if they really have 63% edge, then they should still call. This is
|
h*****s
发帖数: 3289 | 10 call! could be against KK, KK, QQ, and QQ! Hugely favored.. Then the board
comes 78910J...someone makes a K high flush....wait a moment... Another
player has a Q high straight flush.... |
|
|
m*k
发帖数: 51 | 11 hahahaha
【在 h*****s 的大作中提到】
: call! could be against KK, KK, QQ, and QQ! Hugely favored.. Then the board
: comes 78910J...someone makes a K high flush....wait a moment... Another
: player has a Q high straight flush....
|
n***a
发帖数: 274 | 12 换个更极端的情况。
10 players sng, 前面全部进取乐，bb的你拿着一对ace。
如果pay top 1,call?
如果pay top 2,call?
如果pay top 3,call? |
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 13 Top1 肯定call。因为winner takes all的比赛和cash game一样。没有ICM
Top2 肯定不call。一般是6.6/3.3分钱。所以guarantee的230% ROI。比call进去的
return高。call进去远没有40%的equity。
Top3 也肯定不call。因为是5/3/2的分布。所以还是要guarantee的200%的ROI。
但是SNG和MTT不一样。SNG ICM起的作用很大。MTT大部分时候ICM只起一点点作用。
【在 n***a 的大作中提到】
: 换个更极端的情况。
: 10 players sng, 前面全部进取乐，bb的你拿着一对ace。
: 如果pay top 1,call?
: 如果pay top 2,call?
: 如果pay top 3,call?
|
t********t
发帖数: 5415 | 14 最后一句是金句
另外lz想main event想疯了么，ME是300bb ss的...
【在 c*****t 的大作中提到】
: Top1 肯定call。因为winner takes all的比赛和cash game一样。没有ICM
: Top2 肯定不call。一般是6.6/3.3分钱。所以guarantee的230% ROI。比call进去的
: return高。call进去远没有40%的equity。
: Top3 也肯定不call。因为是5/3/2的分布。所以还是要guarantee的200%的ROI。
: 但是SNG和MTT不一样。SNG ICM起的作用很大。MTT大部分时候ICM只起一点点作用。
|
q****8
发帖数: 3281 | 15 So suppose they have aa every hand but at least 3 would shove or call
preflop shove, they just fold every hand until 5bb? This is bullshit.
very
【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: this is exactly what i am waiting for. lol
: To those who have huge tourney edge on average + the tourney levels are very
: slow + so many entries, it might be a fold here to avoid variance.
: I once saw a similar post on 2+2.
|
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 16 2+2论坛上有很多ego巨大的人。所以我一点也不奇怪有很多人觉得自己牌技高超所以可
以放弃63% odds的coin flip。 你看那些文章。很多开头都是"I raised with shit
and he 3-bet me. I decided to call because I am in position so I can use my
post-flop skills to ...." or "I decided to 3-bet with shit to isolate
because I can use my post-flop skills to..."
关键是在于每个人都觉得自己赢是因为打的不错，输是因为运气不好。正是这种心态导
致他们觉得自己可以放弃确定无疑的63% odds的coin flip。反而去追求不确定的没法
量化的所谓post flop play的edge。
【在 q****8 的大作中提到】
: So suppose they have aa every hand but at least 3 would shove or call
: preflop shove, they just fold every hand until 5bb? This is bullshit.
:
: very
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 17 说到底， 是少了个变量的假设。 如果你的目标是入钱圈， 那么你有4X starting
chips 和1X starting chips, 你入钱圈的概率各是多少呢？ 有了这个假设， money
EV 就可以算了。 争论的其实也就是对这个假设的意见不一。很多要fold 的人肯定觉
得4X chips 和 1X starting chips 对于他们的技术来说进钱圈该率差不多。
不知道 D 神觉得我说得对不对。 |
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 18 这里要考虑fold的人不太可能那么低调只要进钱圈。他们既然觉得自己postflop
skills edge > 63%。那么自我感觉那么好肯定都是冲着冠军去的。这恰恰说明他们放
弃4x的机会是大错。奔冠军去的时候筹码量很重要。ICM起的作用很小。
另外，63% odds已经是非常低估EV了。这是基于最坏情况AA遇到另外一个AA。所以最多
只能2x筹码。
如果没有另外一个AA的话。比如遇到两个AK，一个QQ。那EV就大多了。要是遇到两个KK
。简直做梦都要笑出来了。这牌要是你fold了再翻出来两个KK。你这辈子都要睡不着觉
money
【在 W********m 的大作中提到】
: 说到底， 是少了个变量的假设。 如果你的目标是入钱圈， 那么你有4X starting
: chips 和1X starting chips, 你入钱圈的概率各是多少呢？ 有了这个假设， money
: EV 就可以算了。 争论的其实也就是对这个假设的意见不一。很多要fold 的人肯定觉
: 得4X chips 和 1X starting chips 对于他们的技术来说进钱圈该率差不多。
: 不知道 D 神觉得我说得对不对。
|
l*******r
发帖数: 328 | 19 I think the question is not realistic. with deep stack, there is no way 3
players go all in before your first move.
assume player 1 raise 3bb. player 2 raise 10bb, player 3 raise 40 bb. player
4 raise 120 bb. player 5 goes all in. how is it possible that player 6 and
7 call all in and you have aa? |
d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 20 猛然发现 楼歪了 哥发这贴的原意是
用-chips ev的方式去避免大的variance，一般有两个原因，一个是对于玩家edge的考
量，另一个是心理上的anti-risk的bias。哥的目的是，希望有心人，重新考虑一条毁
誉参半的tourney名言：wait for a better spot
当然，哥举得这个例子，有点极端，并且正如MM老湿所说的，仍然缺少条件。所以，在
哥看来，这个选择的答案也是非常open。事实是，里面甚至牵涉到了实际利润和心理价
值实现的问题，扯出去没底了。
哥提这个茬只为两条：
1给刚刚接触tourney的玩家，提个醒，不要让心理上的偏见，影响到决策，这个在cash
game里也适用。
2同样的，share哥个人的一些微薄经验给高手们，任何事情都没有一个绝对，打得越多
，就有越多的机会，面临到ev和variance之间的取舍两难的情况，有的时候，貌似-ev
的选择，很有可能实际是+ev的。 |
|
|
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 21 SNG ICM作用大，所以容易出现chip EV 和 money EV 差别大的情况。这时需要仔细权
衡。
MTT ICM作用不大。大多数时候可以偷懒把Chip EV算成值0.9 money EV就好了。也就是
说没死钱的时候51%的coin flip不划算。要55%以上的ODDS才可以。和cash也就这点小
区别。
MTT的bubble影响不是很大。因为一般进去也就2个buyin的奖金。当然，你要说WSOP ME
的那2个buyin太主要了所以你要fold进钱圈。这也合理。但那主要是bankroll和心理的
因素。EV肯定是-ev的。$10k buyin的比赛和$10 buyin的比赛在EV理论上没有本质区别。
MTT的final table payjump巨大。ICM起很大作用。这时才大量出现楼主说的要避免
variance的情况。我个人如果是chip leader的时候，在final table基本都是只玩
premium hand。几乎不make a play的。我对这种打法表示十分心情轻松愉快。这样打
大多数时候没牌会变成小筹码但是能安全进前3。按ICM缺省算法9个人时候的CL的EV没
有第3的奖金多。所以这样打是很划算的。我个人完全不赞同利用自己的筹码优势施加
压力的打法。已经是chip leader了。再赢多一些也没啥大用。 |
d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 22 哥完全不赞同“大筹码的时候，不作为”
这不是0或者1，这是一个0到100的度。保持恰当%的aggression，是作为大筹码的福利
，实际是以很小的risk去获得大得多的return。
这背后的理论依据是由于巨大的pay jump，使得tourney越是到最后阶段，大筹码的一
个move，给其他玩家所造成的心理上以及实际价值上的影响大到无法想象。从而使其他
职业玩家会被迫提高range，调整aggression，把原本属于他们的chips投降给你。
在适当的时候，大筹码就应该take好的spot。当然，碰到光脚的就另当别论了。
所以，哥觉得“不作为”所放弃的ev，是最不易察觉，但是实际也是不能承受的非常大
的损失。 |
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 23 没那么多nit愿意fold给你。一般进final table的人这个tourney都run的比较好。心理
上有暗示觉得自己打的松有奖励。coin flip一般能赢。来两个小筹码是光脚的不怕穿
鞋的。再加两个donk愿意把AJ按AA打。再加另外2个大筹码在meta level思考决定和你5
-bet light。你take aggression没有太多用。 |
