W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 1 昨天一个2.5k guarantee 的Tournament。 final table 7 left.
blind 4.5k. 我有24K， 最小筹码。 第二小筹码close to 40K. 我的M < 3.
HJ (stack 70K) mini raise 9K. MP is fairly active. not the first time
raising. CO chip leader (120K). call. I am at button with AJo. What is
the correct move here? with blind and ante, the pot is already 27k. I
should have very little fold equity here， but with the pot this big, AJ
shove seems to be + chip ev, no matter what. Small fold equity means MP
will call wide, so more + chip ev for me. 我怎么看也是shove。
so what is the best move here? Shove or wait for a better spot. what did I
miss? how is the money ev here to shove?
tounament 大牛请来分析一下.
P.S. 鱼宝宝以前介绍的方法真的很不错。 等到late registration 快完的时候再进
去。 两百多人的比赛，30人钱圈，最后进去的时候只有60多人了， 还有200刀overlay
。 starting chip 大概是当时average 的一半， 一个double up 基本就进圈了， 而
且花得时间还少， 也不用因为要打太久而tilt. |
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 2 AJ is a pretty weak hand. I will probably snap fold and wait for a better
position.
I
【在 W********m 的大作中提到】
: 昨天一个2.5k guarantee 的Tournament。 final table 7 left.
: blind 4.5k. 我有24K， 最小筹码。 第二小筹码close to 40K. 我的M < 3.
: HJ (stack 70K) mini raise 9K. MP is fairly active. not the first time
: raising. CO chip leader (120K). call. I am at button with AJo. What is
: the correct move here? with blind and ante, the pot is already 27k. I
: should have very little fold equity here， but with the pot this big, AJ
: shove seems to be + chip ev, no matter what. Small fold equity means MP
: will call wide, so more + chip ev for me. 我怎么看也是shove。
: so what is the best move here? Shove or wait for a better spot. what did I
: miss? how is the money ev here to shove?
|
d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 3 blind 4.5k. 我有24K， 最小筹码。 第二小筹码close to 40K. 我的M < 3
不明白。 big blind 4.5K？not likely
首先恭喜老湿进ft
其次如果oe相对比较活跃，且老湿image偏紧的话，哥会在这里无脑推10bb以下，不是
冲着fe去的，而是get in with good equity
路人甲的2c |
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 4 why is bb 4.5k not likely?
I was also thinking getting it in is a nobrainer, because it is a huge
+chip ev with all the dead money even though we are not ahead most of the
time. Just not sure whether the conclusion is the same for money ev.
Yubaobao thinks that it is a fold. I am a little confused. is this where
chip ev and money ev deviates?
【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: blind 4.5k. 我有24K， 最小筹码。 第二小筹码close to 40K. 我的M < 3
: 不明白。 big blind 4.5K？not likely
: 首先恭喜老湿进ft
: 其次如果oe相对比较活跃，且老湿image偏紧的话，哥会在这里无脑推10bb以下，不是
: 冲着fe去的，而是get in with good equity
: 路人甲的2c
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 5 there must be some flaw in my thinking process. with the extreme shallow
stack and large big blind and antes. At the late stage of the tournament, I
just saw all those spots where i should be shoving/reshoving with a
relatively weak hand. I could well be wrong.
【在 W********m 的大作中提到】
: why is bb 4.5k not likely?
: I was also thinking getting it in is a nobrainer, because it is a huge
: +chip ev with all the dead money even though we are not ahead most of the
: time. Just not sure whether the conclusion is the same for money ev.
: Yubaobao thinks that it is a fold. I am a little confused. is this where
: chip ev and money ev deviates?
:
|
t********t
发帖数: 5415 | 6 4.5k的bb看着确实奇怪。
short stack这种情况怎么也推进去了吧。感觉CO会用任何A在这gamble，你推进去就不
用考虑MP了，MP绝大部分range只有fold的份了（CO走不掉的）。
$EV要看payout table的，不过mm老师这样的股神，一天账户可以赚一个guarantee的就
不要在乎了吧，+cEV才是王道 |
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 7 never seen 4.5k BB, live or online... that means SB is 2250, weird structure.
【在 W********m 的大作中提到】
: why is bb 4.5k not likely?
: I was also thinking getting it in is a nobrainer, because it is a huge
: +chip ev with all the dead money even though we are not ahead most of the
: time. Just not sure whether the conclusion is the same for money ev.
: Yubaobao thinks that it is a fold. I am a little confused. is this where
: chip ev and money ev deviates?
:
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 8 可能记错了？
反正是四千多
structure.
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: never seen 4.5k BB, live or online... that means SB is 2250, weird structure.
|
d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 9 if it is in merge, it is probably 4.8k/2.4k/480
As long as HJ is not a rock and CO is normal, most of the time, u will see
HJ reraise and CO fold and you definitely are ahead of HJ's range, a lot! |
h*****s
发帖数: 3289 | 10 前面有俩个人 我一般就认怂
一个的话 我石油八九就推了
同意yubaobao AJ太marginal 就是被KQ call了 也就是扔硬币
low-stake很多人都乱call.... |
|
|
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 11 you are the smallest stack so lets temporarily assume ICM does not play. So
it is all about chip EV.
The best scenario you can triple your stack and also win the blinds+ante. So
you are risking 24k to become a 80k stack. So you need 30% allin equity.
AJ certainly wont have 30% allin equity if 3-way allin preflop. You are
basically hoping that HJ has guts and reshove and kick CO out of the pot. If
that happens, you will have 30% chance 2-way allin against HJ. Otherwise if
HJ just calls then you are fucked for sure. So you need to have some
history on HJ to make sure that he will automatically reshove.
You are at the button so you have some chance before posting next blinds.
There are 10% chance that SB or BB will wake up with a monster
hand (e.g., AA ~ JJ and AK) and crush your AJ.
Although I said ICM does not matter much for the smallest stack, it still
matters a little bit. So your money EV will be slightly worse than your chip
EV. Maybe off by 1 ~ 2%.
Adding all these factors together, You probably barely got the odds if you
are sure that HJ will push CO out. Otherwise if it becomes 3-way allin then
it is clearly a -EV situation. |
d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 12 介个哥不怎么认同
yubaobao请具体估计一下 hj和co的range |
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 13 没HUD所以没法估计range啊。
但是简单说就是我觉得这里需要有30%左右的allin equity。
考虑到后面还有两个人没说话，以及ICM。估计要35%左右的allin equity才能shove。
跟一个人allin肯定有35%的equity。跟两个人allin肯定没有35%。
所以这里我的打法和你前面说的一样。一个人我看stats有可能就推了。两个人我肯定
就耸了。 |
d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 14 是那个bovada 老大说的 一个人推 两个人怂
哥说的是 两个非rock这么搞 哥无脑推
哥的理由很简单 虽然老湿没有fe
但是在final 7的桌上 一个算是正常active的中等筹码 他的open range 落后于AJo 哥
觉得这种情况下各种suit A／A8o／PP／broadway都是在他的range里
且CL又是个有position的平call 这里slow play premium hand的％哥觉得不大 哥觉
得CL的range也落后于AJo
对上这样的情况 老湿的equity是超过33%
如果不幸有一位确实dominate AJo 那他reshove的％也是很高的 这样 即使老湿作为
underdog 对上1对2的pot odds也差不多了。
另，如果这两位都是不错的reg 哥反而觉得有很高的％ 其中一人会把另一个逼走 尤其
是hj位 这是个免费接受cl馈赠的spot 桌上的短筹 很多情况下 是大筹码互相牵制的最
好工具
退一万步来讲 老湿这把撞墙了 那桌上所有人就都知道 老湿在这种spot的bottom
range是AJo 对老湿以后的game也是有好处的 否则一个能熬到5bb的rock 往往会落得大
牌得不到payoff被活活憋死的下场 |
c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 15 收回前面的回答。前面我把HJ想成UTG了。HJ open然后CO call的话我很可能会reshove。
当然有数据的话还是要看HJ的数据了。但是大多数玩家的确玩的比较松。他们还是按着
deep stack cash的open range来的。 |
