l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 by Kevin
If the unemployment situation in this country were a cyclical issue (which
most people assume) than jobs would be being created left and right at this
point. We’d be well on our way back towards a more normal and acceptable
unemployment level. Unfortunately, this isn’t happening. Despite an “
improving economy” as we’re told.
Now I would still debate the level of improvement in the economy – because
I think there are two economies. One for big business and one for small
business. Big business that has access to cheap/free money and global
markets is hitting record profits right now. Small business on the other
hand is still struggling. Regardless, neither big or small business is
hiring new people at a high rate. Why?
Because the unemployment issue isn’t cyclical. If it were cyclical, all we
would need to do is lower rates, print some money, and get the economy
moving again. We did that and the jobs still aren’t coming, which shows
this isn’t a cyclical problem, and thus the cyclical solutions were not the
right solutions.
The unemployment situation is structural. We have major structural issues
that won’t be addressed by trying to move the cyclical nature of the
economy.
What are the structural issues?
1. Demographics - The baby boomers are moving towards retirement. They
are moving towards cutting back rather than increasing consumption. Many of
these boomers don’t have enough for retirement as is.
2. A shrinking labor force – Each month when we get an updated
unemployment rate (which is useless and manipulated) we learn of the many
people that have just dropped out of the labor force whether it’s due to
discouragement or age. The reality is that there are an increasing number
of workers that simply aren’t employable anymore. Picture the 55 year old
worker with an outdated skill set.
3. Erosion of Manufacturing - The productive jobs that make something
tangible in this country continue to be lost and shipped overseas to cheaper
labor. We’ve replaced these jobs with service jobs. This reflects the
consumer-oriented nature of our economy rather than our productive/expert-
driven nature of it. This needs to change.
So, what are the answers? Well, not printing a bunch of money for one. The
current responses are incorrect and will end up hurting us more than
helping us.
The solutions need to be to incentivize job creation, innovation and the
creation of manufacturing businesses in the United States. Why not offer
zero corporate income tax for five or ten years for any business that
creates a manufacturing plant and hires 100 workers. Government needs to
realize that they won’t create the solutions, but by getting out of the way
and offering to get out of the way even more as various incentives, this
can work.
So, if you’re happy with Fortune 500 CEOs and Wall Street traders raking in
billions in the new economy while main street continues to struggle, then
you should be fine with the current path of economic leadership. If you
think this is a joke, then you need to realize that the solutions being
implemented are a response to a cyclical downturn, not structural economic
ills. We need new plans and new solutions. |
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