l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 Friday, September 16, 2011 | 6:40 p.m. CDT
BY PETE YOST/The Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The number of violent crimes fell by a surprising 12 percent
in the U.S. last year, a far bigger drop than the nation has been averaging
since 2001, the Justice Department said.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics reported there were 3.8 million violent
crimes last year, down from 4.3 million in 2009.
Experts aren't sure why. The expectation had been that crime would increase
in a weak economy with high unemployment like that seen in 2010.
The reality is "we're surprised to find how much it declines," Professor
Alfred Blumstein of Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz School said Friday.
The big drop dwarfs the 3 percent yearly decline in violent crimes the
nation averaged from 2001 through 2009.
More than 80 percent of the decline in violent crime was attributed to a
plunge in simple assaults, by 15 percent. Those assaults accounted for
nearly two-thirds of all violent crimes in 2010.
The combined total of property crimes and violent crimes was down 6.6
percent last year, from 20 million to 18.7 million.
The numbers come from the National Crime Victimization Survey, which gathers
information on nonfatal crimes against people aged 12 or older by
questioning a nationally representative sample of U.S. households.
Turning to rates of crime per thousand residents, which takes into account
population growth over time, it's clear that the decline in violent crime is
part of a long-term trend that began in 1993.
From 1993 through 2010, the rate of violent crime has declined by a whopping
70 percent: from 49.9 violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older to
only 14.9 per 1,000 in 2010.
Half of this decline came between 1993 and 2001. Between 2001 and 2009,
violent crime declined at a more modest annual average of 4 percent, but
that rate decline jumped to 12 percent in 2010.
From 2001 through 2010, the rate of property crime fell by 28 percent.
The rate for violent crime is based on the number per thousand population.
The rate for property crime is based on the number per thousand households.
Blumstein added that "the victimization survey is basically confirming" the
FBI's preliminary figures from last May on crimes reported to police during
2010. That early, incomplete FBI data showed reported crime fell across the
board last year, extending a multi-year downward trend with a 5.5 percent
drop in the number of violent crimes in 2010 and a 2.8 percent decline in
the number of property crimes. The FBI's final figures for last year will be
released Monday.
The victimization survey figures are considered the government's most
reliable crime statistics because they count crimes that are reported to the
police as well as those which go unreported. Over the last decade, the
government has found only about half of all violent crimes and only 40
percent of property crimes are reported to police.
Because the survey is based on interviews with victims, it gathers no data
on murder. But the FBI's crime figures, based solely on what is reported to
police, do provide murder figures, and they are considered quite reliable
because murder has always been the least likely crime to go unreported.
Murder is by far the least frequent major crime, only 15,241 in 2009. | B******m
发帖数: 2643 | 2 克林顿时期犯罪率也下降，经济学家鼓吹是经济好的原因。
后来有个社会学家发现，根本原因是20多年前通过的堕胎合法法案 roe vs wade，让很
多本来生出来犯罪的人就没有生出来。
averaging
increase
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: Friday, September 16, 2011 | 6:40 p.m. CDT
: BY PETE YOST/The Associated Press
: WASHINGTON — The number of violent crimes fell by a surprising 12 percent
: in the U.S. last year, a far bigger drop than the nation has been averaging
: since 2001, the Justice Department said.
: The Bureau of Justice Statistics reported there were 3.8 million violent
: crimes last year, down from 4.3 million in 2009.
: Experts aren't sure why. The expectation had been that crime would increase
: in a weak economy with high unemployment like that seen in 2010.
: The reality is "we're surprised to find how much it declines," Professor
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