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发帖数: 29846 | 1 The down-to-the-wire gubernatorial recall election, the most expensive race
in Wisconsin history, has boiled down to this: Will Republicans or Democrats
deliver more of their voters to the polls Tuesday?
Republican Gov. Scott Walker is only the third governor in U.S. history to
face a recall and hopes to be the first to survive one. Voters will decide
whether to allow him to serve out his term or replace him with Milwaukee
Mayor Tom Barrett, a Democrat.
Eau Claire Leader-Telegram,/Associated Press
Republican Gov. Scott Walker campaigned at a factory.
Both sides say few voters remain undecided, after more than $63.5 million in
political spending saturated the airwaves and clogged voters' mailboxes. A
weekend survey by the Democratic group Public Policy Polling found Mr.
Walker holding a slight lead and only 3% of likely voters undecided. With
few voters left to persuade, the main question is which side will win the
turnout battle.
Labor groups and their allies knocked on more than 300,000 doors during the
past few days and placed more than 400,000 phone calls, said Brian Weeks,
the assistant political director for the American Federation of State,
County and Municipal Employees union.
Unions historically have had a strong ground game. But Republicans said they
took a page from labor's playbook and have developed a coordinated get-out-
the-vote effort, which could also give the party a boost in the November
presidential election, helping the GOP equal the Democrats' election-day
machinery.
The Republican Governors Association, which has spent about $9 million in
Wisconsin, sent a last-minute infusion of $1.5 million to help get Walker
supporters to the polls. That financed a mail program that included a push
to increase early voting, which ended on Friday.
"We wanted to make sure we weren't going to get beat on voter turnout" said
Mike Schrimpf, the communications director for the GOP governors' group. "We
all need to coordinate and work better, not just on paid media but also on
boots on the ground activities."
One sign of Wisconsin's changing profile: Even President Barack Obama's
campaign now considers the state a battleground for the fall. Mr. Obama won
Wisconsin by nearly 14 percentage points in 2008. But in an update on his re
-election efforts sent to supporters Monday, Obama campaign manager Jim
Messina characterized the state as a tossup.
Both Messrs. Walker and Barrett say they expect it to be close, with the
Milwaukee mayor touting his own campaign's polling showing him essentially
tied with the governor.
Mr. Walker has led in independent polls. The weekend Public Policy Polling
survey showed the governor ahead, 50% to 47%, with a margin of error of plus
or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Mr. Walker has a significant fundraising advantage—his $30 million in
contributions was seven times what Mr. Barrett raised. Democrats are hoping
they can overcome money with manpower.
State election officials are forecasting a strong turnout. But a Marquette
Law School Poll from late May suggests that Republicans may be more
motivated, with 92% saying that they were "absolutely certain to vote." Only
77% of Democrats said the same. |
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