B*********n
发帖数: 2552 | 1 1。media里面是差不多打平
2。romney内部poll是乐观赢的
3。obama内部poll也是如此。
4。客观说，early vote是obama上峰，但是大选当天turn out rate是romney上风
结果这次是非常close的大选，就算是内部也没人知道输赢。
非常精彩。。 |
g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 2 这不算精彩。2000年深夜，NBC Tom Browkaw 宣布，富落李达归布什，恭喜布什总统。
我和太太就洗洗睡了。
早上爬起来，居然翻盘了。然后一个月打官司。
那才叫精彩。 |
B*********n
发帖数: 2552 | |
d****i
发帖数: 4354 | 4 重在参与
【在 g******s 的大作中提到】
: 这不算精彩。2000年深夜，NBC Tom Browkaw 宣布，富落李达归布什，恭喜布什总统。
: 我和太太就洗洗睡了。
: 早上爬起来，居然翻盘了。然后一个月打官司。
: 那才叫精彩。
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 5 I still think 538 site's analysis is more probable result, or they get all
wrong except Rumssuan.
Currently there is divergence between national and state polls. We will see
which one is more accurate soon. |
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 6 lz, do you happen to know more GOP lean poll aggregation? Only one I know of
is Karl Rove, but his latest map isnt look good for GOP. |
f*******7
发帖数: 2210 | 7 我以前也相信538 nate silver,
后来我发现他从来都是暗中偏向obama。
如果看现在的poll,大部分都是obama在摇摆州领先，问题是这些poll全部建立在turn
out 是多少的假设上的。这个假设一变,poll大变，所以不必太当真，最后就是看谁家
turn out的多了。
see
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: I still think 538 site's analysis is more probable result, or they get all
: wrong except Rumssuan.
: Currently there is divergence between national and state polls. We will see
: which one is more accurate soon.
|
h****g
发帖数: 2216 | 8 我记得最精彩的是当时戈尔的反应，先打电话祝贺布什胜利，然后再打电话取消前面的
祝贺。
【在 g******s 的大作中提到】
: 这不算精彩。2000年深夜，NBC Tom Browkaw 宣布，富落李达归布什，恭喜布什总统。
: 我和太太就洗洗睡了。
: 早上爬起来，居然翻盘了。然后一个月打官司。
: 那才叫精彩。
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 9 We all have more or less partisanship. But that doesnt mean we cant be
professional at the same time. 538 site bias is a little bit more than RCP,
maybe 0.5 % which you can say just a statistics noise. Any other site is
more truthful to you other than single pollster? |
b******r
发帖数: 1137 | 10 and think about the truman win, which was pretty hilarious.
【在 g******s 的大作中提到】
: 这不算精彩。2000年深夜，NBC Tom Browkaw 宣布，富落李达归布什，恭喜布什总统。
: 我和太太就洗洗睡了。
: 早上爬起来，居然翻盘了。然后一个月打官司。
: 那才叫精彩。
|
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l******h
发帖数: 855 | |
w******8
发帖数: 977 | 12 就是某方支持者出去投票的比例。比如LA有个中国城选市长，最后选出个劳模市长，就
是因为劳模turn out高出中国人太多了。
【在 l******h 的大作中提到】
: 谁给我扫盲一下啥叫turn out?
|
l******h
发帖数: 855 | 13 明白啦~~
【在 w******8 的大作中提到】
: 就是某方支持者出去投票的比例。比如LA有个中国城选市长，最后选出个劳模市长，就
: 是因为劳模turn out高出中国人太多了。
|
p***i
发帖数: 2119 | 14 Delusional。Media裡面Obama已經佔據明顯上風了。
【在 B*********n 的大作中提到】
: 1。media里面是差不多打平
: 2。romney内部poll是乐观赢的
: 3。obama内部poll也是如此。
: 4。客观说，early vote是obama上峰，但是大选当天turn out rate是romney上风
: 结果这次是非常close的大选，就算是内部也没人知道输赢。
: 非常精彩。。
|
g**f
发帖数: 725 | 15
【在 p***i 的大作中提到】
: Delusional。Media裡面Obama已經佔據明顯上風了。
|
g****u
发帖数: 1422 | 16 罗姆尼必胜！
谁给咱中产减税，俺就全力支持
其他的什么医保同性恋堕胎啥的意识形态都是虚的
【在 B*********n 的大作中提到】
: 1。media里面是差不多打平
: 2。romney内部poll是乐观赢的
: 3。obama内部poll也是如此。
: 4。客观说，early vote是obama上峰，但是大选当天turn out rate是romney上风
: 结果这次是非常close的大选，就算是内部也没人知道输赢。
: 非常精彩。。
|
l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 17 Romney said that he will CRACK China, China is a Cheater.
your china home will be cracked by Romney.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
: 罗姆尼必胜！
: 谁给咱中产减税，俺就全力支持
: 其他的什么医保同性恋堕胎啥的意识形态都是虚的
|
l**w
发帖数: 865 | 18 At least Obama manged to cut pay roll tax for two years.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
: 罗姆尼必胜！
: 谁给咱中产减税，俺就全力支持
: 其他的什么医保同性恋堕胎啥的意识形态都是虚的
|
g****u
发帖数: 1422 | 19 那是国家和国家的事情，俺管不着，再说了他说crack中国就能crack的了？还是手中能
拿到多少税后的钱钱来的实惠
【在 l**1 的大作中提到】
: Romney said that he will CRACK China, China is a Cheater.
: your china home will be cracked by Romney.
|
l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 20 他说crack中国
Your boss will crack a Chinese like you.
2 billion Americans watched Romney said: I will crack China.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
: 那是国家和国家的事情，俺管不着，再说了他说crack中国就能crack的了？还是手中能
: 拿到多少税后的钱钱来的实惠
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l*****6
发帖数: 446 | |
g****u
发帖数: 1422 | 22 那你投巴马好了，两党对中国的政策都差不多，一个明着嘴横，一个暗地里耍阴，没啥
区别
【在 l**1 的大作中提到】
: 他说crack中国
: Your boss will crack a Chinese like you.
: 2 billion Americans watched Romney said: I will crack China.
|
l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 23 you are stupid.
Romney may not crack China, but your boss can certainly crack down you
Chinaman.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
: 那你投巴马好了，两党对中国的政策都差不多，一个明着嘴横，一个暗地里耍阴，没啥
: 区别
|
m****g
发帖数: 3975 | 24 http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2012/nov/02/americans-v
Americans would like to vote out Obama, but Romney makes it difficult
Sandy may have tipped the balance back in favour of the president days
before the US election
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Barack Obama
Barack Obama, whose campaign has a revived momentum. Photograph: Jewel Samad
/AFP/Getty Images
On the BBC a few weeks ago the New York Times pundit David Brooks explained
to his British audience that American voters are "looking for an excuse to
vote against the president". Spot on, I thought. Voters are disappointed in
the promise that Barack Obama represented in 2008, but Mitt Romney has been
making it hard for swing voters to elect him president instead.
Since then it's looked as if next Tuesday's ballot may swing Romney's way
after all. But no. As hurricane Sandy roared up the US eastern seaboard,
fate may have tipped the balance back in Obama's direction by showing him
quietly in charge and reminding folks the government – local, state or
federal – isn't always the enemy of Tea Party fantasy.
Overnight we've also learned that New York's mayor, Michael Bloomberg, the
little guy with the sign language aide at his side, soft-spoken but
reassuring and on top of the detail, is backing Obama and by implication the
benign power of government.
That's quite a big deal, like Boris Johnson endorsing Ed Miliband – don't
hold your breath, Ed – at the 2015 election here. Except that Bloomberg is
an ex-Republican independent, a self-made billionaire who has the gravitas
that Boris lacks, though he generally makes worse jokes.
Hizzoner – as Americans call their big city mayors – is shrewdly political
enough to praise Romney as a "good and decent man" who has done good things
. Alas, "he has reversed course on all of them", including the healthcare
model he created as governor of Massachusetts, the mayor noted in a
statement. But the clincher for Bloomberg is Romney's hostility to climate
change.
This week's devastation "may or may not be" a result, but the risk requires
"immediate action", Bloomberg concludes. That's spot on too. When I mocked
CNN's hysterical buildup to hurricane Sandy here this week I got it partly
wrong. The havoc and death it actually wreaked – as opposed to the spine-
chilling advance publicity – was more severe than I initially grasped, as
we all now know.
But one of my complaints, which remains valid, was the widespread reluctance
of many Americans to concede that manmade climate change may be a crucial
driver of its increasingly turbulent continental weather. The daily US
weather map that most newspapers carry can be extraordinary, a Wagnerian
drama which piles two feet of snow on Idaho on the same day that oranges are
ripening in Florida sunshine. Floods, snow, twisters, droughts; it's never
dull.
Yet it remains an article of faith with many Americans that they can master
nature as they mastered their vast land – chopped down its forests, dammed
its rivers, cultivated its deserts, drilled for its oil, tamed its forest
fires. Herman Melville's classic MobyDick told them otherwise – the sea
always wins – but it's not a message everyone wants to hear. Obama's
strategy has been to let events talk for themselves.
Bloomberg knows it – if you take a look at the storm, be careful, nature is
stronger than us, he warned New Yorkers this week. After all, the great
port city is surrounded by water – Manhattan, Long Island and Staten Island
are just that – and the East and Hudson rivers are close to the vast
Atlantic swell. The Thames Barrier, a mighty undertaking, currently protects
London. It would not be enough to protect New York as water levels rise.
The polarised ideological gridlock of Washington politics, far more severe
than in post-cold-war Europe, exaggerates disagreements and damages politics
threatens the economic recovery, whoever wins on Tuesday. It needn't be that
way. Just look at the courteous way Obama and Chris Christie, admired
Republican governor of New Jersey, have treated each other in this week's
crisis.
None of this plays Romney's way or the way Tea Party types want to see the
world. I hesitate to say it's clinched re-election for the president. When
Romney made his coarse assessment of the Democratic electoral base – the 47
% of people who depend on benefits from the state – in September I
suggested it might – might – be the turning point, ensuring the challenger
's defeat.
So it might have done, but for Obama's strikingly feeble performance in the
first presidential debate. It was precisely the sort of event which – to
quote Brooks – gave wavering voters an excuse to vote him out. If he looked
so disengaged that he didn't seem to want the job, why not let the other
fellow have a go?
After all, he had not lived up to expectations, though in fairness to Obama
a kind reader on Twitter draws my attention to this robust defence of the
president's record by Jonathan Chait in the New York magazine. In the later
debates Obama fought back – and now the hurricane has played to his
strengths.
Does it matter who wins? At the Cambridge Festival of Ideas last weekend I
heard a panel of experts on Asia – one Korean, one Japanese and one Chinese
– saying there is less interest than usual in the contest on their side of
the Pacific. The US focus is tilting towards China (60% of US warships are
now in the Pacific, we were told) but the anti-China rhetoric – formerly
anti-Japanese – over unfair trade is much quieter in 2012.
Whoever wins won't change US policy much (whatever aggressive pledges Romney
is making) seemed to be east Asia's verdict. Well, maybe.
I'd still say it matters quite a lot. Romney may plan to govern from the
centre if he becomes president and Republican forces in Congress and the
country allow him to – as they denied much scope to Obama. But it is
certainly not what he's been saying.
On climate change, denial is dominant. Republicans still want to deport
millions of illegal immigrants, they would cut spending on benefits for
those layabout Democrats – healthcare and stuff – while increasing defence
spending AND cutting taxes for everyone. A constitutional curb on gays
rights, the outlawing of abortion etc etc.
A pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear plants, support for more West Bank
settlements, the list is a long one – and scary. What we know from the
record, two Bushes and Ronald Reagan, is that Republicans are better at
cutting taxes, mostly for the rich, than cutting spending the way they
promise to cut it. That's why the US has a crippling debt problem, a more
serious budget imbalance than our own, possible only because of the residual
prestige (for now) of the dollar.
Add all that to the superior organisational power of the Democratic machine
– the Obama team's better grasp of social media as campaign tools that
offset the billionaire bank-rolling of Romney – together with the changing
demographics of the US, and it points me to the same conclusion.
Obama's crowds are much smaller than in 2008, but they're multiracial. That'
s America's future, black, white, Hispanic, Asian. Indeed the insurgency of
the Tea Party, which was forced to settle for Romney (Paul Ryan, a
consolation prize who could prove an error), may be the last hurrah of the
old all-white hegemony.
If they can't beat a disappointing incumbent, they may have to come to terms
with the new realities at home and abroad. Modernisation of the Republican
party is long overdue. Obama to scrape home after all. |
g****u
发帖数: 1422 | 25 这下暴露你的下限了吧，说不过就骂人，连侮辱性的chinaman都爆出来了，可见你的素质
跟你说，俺给我自己打工，谁也炒不了我
【在 l**1 的大作中提到】
: you are stupid.
: Romney may not crack China, but your boss can certainly crack down you
: Chinaman.
|
m**********2
发帖数: 207 | 26 我猜obama赢，虽然不希望他真的赢。
【在 B*********n 的大作中提到】
: 1。media里面是差不多打平
: 2。romney内部poll是乐观赢的
: 3。obama内部poll也是如此。
: 4。客观说，early vote是obama上峰，但是大选当天turn out rate是romney上风
: 结果这次是非常close的大选，就算是内部也没人知道输赢。
: 非常精彩。。
|
g***e
发帖数: 4074 | 27 民主党的小年轻和少数族裔们的政治热情比较高涨，很多人提前投票。但是耽搁下来那
些民主党选民呢，又怕投票日当天人太多，怕麻烦也就不去投票了。这个很反映民主党
选民的特点：热情，但是专注度不够，组织相对随便和懒散。
共和党很多人其实早就做了决定，但是很多人会一直等到最后选举日当天才去投票。而
共和党老头老太太比较多，天气不好的话有可能就不出门了。
所以，民主党比较希望6号当天天气状况糟糕一点，影响共和党支持者的投票率。
【在 l******h 的大作中提到】
: 谁给我扫盲一下啥叫turn out?
|
l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 28 你哀嚎也没有用。罗姆尼必输无疑。
【在 g***e 的大作中提到】
: 民主党的小年轻和少数族裔们的政治热情比较高涨，很多人提前投票。但是耽搁下来那
: 些民主党选民呢，又怕投票日当天人太多，怕麻烦也就不去投票了。这个很反映民主党
: 选民的特点：热情，但是专注度不够，组织相对随便和懒散。
: 共和党很多人其实早就做了决定，但是很多人会一直等到最后选举日当天才去投票。而
: 共和党老头老太太比较多，天气不好的话有可能就不出门了。
: 所以，民主党比较希望6号当天天气状况糟糕一点，影响共和党支持者的投票率。
|
d****i
发帖数: 49 | 29 2 billion???
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
【在 l**1 的大作中提到】
: 他说crack中国
: Your boss will crack a Chinese like you.
: 2 billion Americans watched Romney said: I will crack China.
|
f*******l
发帖数: 828 | 30 2 billion American s?
【在 l**1 的大作中提到】
: 他说crack中国
: Your boss will crack a Chinese like you.
: 2 billion Americans watched Romney said: I will crack China.
|
|
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 31 2000年的精彩楼下几位已经说了。
就是2004年，本来INTRADE上面一直看好布什，结果选举日当天的一些EXIT POLL显示
KERRY领先，引起股市尾盘把全天的涨幅都跌回去了，据说INTRADE上也大逆转，直到午
夜左右OHIO各县计票逐渐明朗，期指开始大涨
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
【在 B*********n 的大作中提到】
: 1。media里面是差不多打平
: 2。romney内部poll是乐观赢的
: 3。obama内部poll也是如此。
: 4。客观说，early vote是obama上峰，但是大选当天turn out rate是romney上风
: 结果这次是非常close的大选，就算是内部也没人知道输赢。
: 非常精彩。。
|
