F******t
发帖数: 948 | 1 All smart ones think he will lose.
Did Wall Street Just Give Up on Romney?
Published: Tuesday, 6 Nov 2012 | 3:36 AM ET Text Size
By: John Carney
Senior Editor, CNBC.com
Many on Wall Street are increasingly convinced that Barack Obama will win
the election.
On the eve of the election, many financial professionals on Wall Street
believe that Mitt Romney has lost the election. In phone conversations,
email and instant messaging exchanges, and text messages with over 20 people
in different jobs on Wall Street today the message I picked up was almost
universal: The president will be re-elected tomorrow.
Many of those with whom I spoke—all of whom spoke on the condition of
anonymity—had a sense of resignation about this forecast. They were Romney
guys. They ate at expensive rubber-chicken fundraisers in midtown hotels,
they coaxed friends and coworkers into donating to Romney and Republican
campaign funds, and just a few weeks ago they were enthusiastically
predicting a victory for Romney.
Not any longer. The word that comes to mind is: capitulation. The sudden and
simultaneous collapse of hope that we sometimes see in markets just as they
reach their lowest points.
(Please note: this is far from a scientific survey of opinion on Wall Street
. It’s very possible that my list of contacts is heavily skewed toward
pessimists or biased in some other way.)
My colleague Bob Pisani has explained that some on Wall Street believe that
some stocks seem to be pricing in an Obama victory.
There has been something of a paralysis on Wall Street during this political
cycle. Knowing that Romney could not afford to be branded the “Wall Street
” candidate, a lot of folks on Wall Street shied away from too much visible
support. But at off-the-record dinners and cocktails parties in New York
City, Connecticut, New Jersey and Long Island they took out their check
books and quietly supported the candidate from Bain Capital.
Some said Super Storm Sandy was to blame.
“His candidacy was the ultimate hurricane victim. Once the storm loomed, he
vanished from public thought,” one investment banker said.
“It’s a shame really. He had the momentum. Then Sandy overtook him. Now we
have Chris Christie hugging Obama. Game over,” said another.
“Where was he in the last few weeks,” asked a young hedge fund Republican.
Others say that the Romney campaign just never really capitalized on its
gains after winning the first debate.
“All eyes were on them and we got…nothing,” a Wall Street executive long
involved in Republican politics said.
“It kind of just feels like he didn't want it enough and his PR campaign
just didn't do the right thing,” a hedge funder said.
Another Wall Streeter pointed to the lack of a Ryan bounce as a reason for
Romney not doing better.
"It was a wager that didn't pay off. Ryan did nothing for the campaign," he
said.
Some of these people supported Obama in the last election but were
disappointed with his performance over the last few years. Others are
stalwart Republicans who reluctantly supported John McCain four years ago
but once had genuine hope and enthusiasm for Romney.
Now they seem deflated.
One of the more optimistic investment bankers in the bunch said that some of
the “big money guys” on Wall Street were already planning for the next
presidential election.
“There’s always 2016. Chris Christie looks great coming out of Sandy,”
one source said.
Not everyone is depressed about forecasting an Obama victory, of course.
Obama still enjoys a substantial amount of support on Wall Street, although
not nearly as much as he did four years ago. These people expressed guarded
optimism—they think they’ve won but don’t want to jinx the outcome.
There’s even a certain amount of schadenfreude among a few of the Obama
supporters. They’re enjoying watching the capitulation of their Romney
supporting friends and coworkers.
The rarest of birds on Wall Street today—at least according to my
completely unscientific survey—was the Romney optimist. I only encountered
one guy who really believes Romney will win.
How was he still clinging on to confidence?
“I’m a contrarian about Wall Street consensus. Everyone is saying Obama’s
going to win. And when everyone on the Street says something will happen, I
figure the opposite will,” he said. |
|
